The Futility Infielder

Junior Achievements

In the wake of my little pot-shot at Ken Griffey, Jr. during my house-cleaning column (I admit it, I do love to kick whiny superstars when they're down), I wanted to examine one aspect of Griffey's career a little more closely. In his Seattle days, Griffey was touted as the player who could break Hank Aaron's career record of 755 home runs. But his stock has fallen in that department, just as it has with regards to his once-sunny disposition (I should point out before I move on that Griffey is still a fantastic ballplayer when healthy, and I admire his skills if not his demeanor).

In one of his early Baseball Abstracts, Bill James introduced a formula which he referred to as "the Favorite Toy," but which now travels under the more dignified name of the Career Assessment forumla. Based on a player's age and established level of production, James could estimate a player's chances of achieving various career milestones or breaking records. The Toy is useful as a radar screen showing which players have a shot at which achievements, but it ain't the most scientific formula in the world--that's why he called it a toy, after all.

Anyway, using James's formula to calculate Griffey's chance of reaching 756 HRs, we can trace the arc of his career. And I'm happy to report that somebody already has. A bold soul named Ron Smith has a page where he has done Favorite Toy projections for the various milestones and records; the figures below are based on his calculations (with a few exceptions which I'll explain afterwards). This is the progression of Griffey's chances:

Year  Age   HR (career) Prob.

1993  23.6  45 (132)     3.0%

1994  24.6  40 (172)     8.8 

1995  25.6  17 (189)     ---

1996  26.6  49 (238)     8.2

1997  27.6  56 (294)    23.4

1998  28.6  56 (350)    40.4

1999  29.6  48 (398)    40.0

2000  30.6  40 (438)    31.2

2001a 31.6   8 (446)     ---

2001b 31.6  30 (468)    15.6

The last two projections are mine. They show a) where Griffey would be if he took his ball and went home, as he threatened to do this weekend, and b) if we assume that he will suddenly catch fire and hit 22 HR in his next 58 games (a 61 HR pace for a full season), leaving him with 30 on the year.

Since the established level in the formula is a weighted average of his output the last three seasons (3-2-1), a season without significant progress can cause a probablity to drop off the charts. That's what happened in 1995, when injuries limited Junior to 17 HR, and that's what would happen if he packed it in today. And while I do think Griffey's chances are better than 15% (assuming he was just having a bad hair day and the hammy heals during the offseason), the formula does not. Even two seasons in a row (plus the rest of this one) at his career level (42 HR per 162 games) will only bring his chances up to 18%. But a third--which would clear this season's aberation from the formula--would rachet him back to 37%. At which point he would be 35 and still in need of 189 HRs. Clearly, it would behoove him to get hot soon.

By the next time Smith runs his numbers, Griffey won't even be the leading candidate anymore. That honor will belong to Sammy Sosa, who was at 29.8% after 2000. At 35 HRs and counting, Slammin' Sammy is right on target for his established level of 57 HRs. If he hits that many, his estimate climbs to 33.6%.

But those rooting for surly second-generation superstars need not fear, for Barry Bonds is on his way. Though he's never cracked Smith's list (which shows all of the players since 1980 who had a probability greater than zero) before this season, if he reaches 70 HRs, he'll be on the map at 25.7%. Heck, Griffey may fall behind Alex Rodriguez (12.5% entering this season), too. Ain't it a bitch being Ken Griffey, Jr.?

Yes, it probably is. Breaking Hank Aaron's home run record is not the be-all and end-all of what makes a great player. Junior, who received death threats as a byproduct of his trade demands, probably doesn't need the added attention of a challenge at the record. And he's not even close enough to merit that kind of scrutiny. So I will try to muster some sympathy for the man, and hopefully get back to enjoying the talents that made him so engaging in the first place. At least until the next time he starts whining.