The Futility Infielder

Mo Battered Blues

Ladies and gentlemen, here are the cumulative lines of two pitchers:

 G   IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR  W  L   S  BS   ERA   WHIP

35 39.2  19   5   3   6  41   1  1  2  26   2   0.69  0.64

 5  6.2  13  12  11   2   8   3  1  2   2   1  14.85  2.25

The pitcher on the top line is regarded as perhaps the best closer in the game, dominant and nearly infallible. The pitcher on the bottom is a guy I wouldn't hire to paint my bullpen, let alone anchor it. His line looks like the second coming of circa-1997-98 Norm Charlton, arsonist extraordinaire.

Both lines belong to the same man: Mariano Rivera, the Yankees closer. That five-game sample consists of the five games I've seen him pitch in person at Yankee Stadium this season. Today, he coughed up three runs to the Mets in the 10th inning, the only runs of the ballgame. But that wasn't even his worst outing I've seen--that honor belongs to his May 13 appearance against Baltimore, where he allowed five runs and took a loss. Even in the game he won, June 4 against Boston, he surrendered a two-run home run to Manny Ramirez, blowing the save before vulturing the win. (The other two games, for anyone interested, are April 28 against Oakland, where he gave up a two run homer to Olmedo Saenz to keep things interesting, and June 2 against Cleveland, where he pitched a scoreless five-out save.)

Mariano has allowed three of his four home runs, and given up 12 of his 17 runs in a sample size thar represents 14% of his workload for the season. What in the name of Bobby Ayala is going on?

There are two easy explanations:
1. small sample size
2. Mariano is a vampire

The first explanation is the obvious one. I've watched Mariano get the job done countless times on TV and in person over the past five seasons; he's one of the best closers in history. If he normally pitched like he has when I've been in the ballpark this year, he'd be in another line of work by now, and I would have found a better value for my entertainment dollar by gambling on cockfights.

The five games are a not-quite-random sample; I chose them as (mostly) quality opponents based on their 2000 records. Three of the five are under .500 right now. But collectively, they're at .511, slightly above the .498 winning percentage of all non-Yankees teams in the major leagues this year.

The second explanation... I'm kidding, but only to a degree. While he may not be Dracula's cousin, apparently Mariano's powers are diminished by sunlight. Four of the five times I've seen him this season have been day games. His ERA in all day games this year is 4.29, versus 1.42 at night. This isn't a new trend, either. Here's a chart:

            ERA(n)  IP(n)   ERA(d)  IP(d)

2001         1.42    25.1     4.29   21.0         

1998-2001    1.79   161.0     3.70   80.1

Holy Heathcliff Slocumb! It's like the difference between... well, between night and day! Mariano has been nowhere near as effective during day games, though he's still getting the job done, converting 86% of his save opportunities while the sun's up, against 91% past sundown. Still, this is a disturbing trend whose underlying causes I can only speculate about: Is he simply a night person? Does he have trouble in hot weather? Is his repertoire easier to hit in daylight? Hell if I know--I sure can't hit him. I couldn't hit sand if I fell off a camel, but that's a whole other story.

A postscript: by the time I arrived home from the game and started writing this, the Yanks had announced that Rivera, suffering from an inflammation of his right ankle, will miss the All-Star Game on Tuesday. Joe Torre has named former Yankees reliever Jeff Nelson to the team, righting at least one wrong with his pinstripe-heavy roster (see below) albeit in a very unsettling way.