The Futility Infielder

The Lo Duca Experiment

Though it looks as if their luck is finally dwindling, the fact that the Dodgers have remained in playoff contention for so long is a tribute to their rookie manager, Jim Tracy. On a team racked with injuries (not to mention the occasional ugly controversy), Tracy has done a hell of a job just keeping the team within hailing distance of the wild card race.

Two of the Dodgers' five projected starters went down with season-ending injuries by July, one (Andy Ashby) after only two starts. Their ace, Kevin Brown, has made no fewer than three trips to the DL. Their star slugger, Gary Sheffield, wanted out of L.A. before the season began, and created quite a stink. Third baseman Adrian Beltre missed the first five weeks of the season due to a botched appendectomy. Regulars Sheffield, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, and Tom Goodwin all took turns on the DL. And the list goes on.

In the midst of all these injuries, Tracy has done a good job of mixing and matching, thanks to a solid bench. Nine batters have appeared in over 99 games, and another five have appeared in over 60. Twelve different pitchers have started games. And the Dodgers have hung tough in a three-team race in the National League West, until losing five out of their last six and dealing their postseason chances a possibly mortal blow.

I haven't had the chance to watch too many Dodger games this season, what with them being three time zones away. But I've followed them in the box scores fairly closely. One tactic Tracy used this season sticks out. For a good portion of the season, Tracy used catcher Paul Lo Duca in the leadoff spot, and both Lo Duca and the team peformed very well. Miles better, in fact, than any of the other hitters who have led off for the Dodgers. Here's a breakdown:

                  AB   OBP   SLG  OPS

Tom Goodwin      195  .262  .338  600

Marquis Grissom   87  .261  .460  721

Adrian Beltre     84  .302  .381  683  

Paul Lo Duca     189  .378  .593  971

Tot. (w/ others) 636  .310  .443  753

Except Lo Duca   447  .276  .380  656

Wow! Lo Duca's OPS (On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) is 315 points higher than the combined efforts of the other clowns the Dodgers used in the top spot. What to make of all of this? Besides the need for an urgent telegram to the home dugout of Dodger Stadium, I mean.

On paper, Lo Duca doesn't look like a typical leadoff hitter. He's a 29-year old catcher who entered the season with 174 career ABs, a .241 batting average, an OPS of 657 and 1 stolen base in 5 attempts. But he clearly has figured out something about how bat connects with ball this season. When centerfielder Tom Goodwin, their opening day leadoff hitter, struggled out of the gate by batting .215, and Lo Duca hit a lofty .366, Tracy took an unconventional step and installed his catcher in the leadoff spot on May 23. From there, both he and the team caught fire. They won 6 of 8, and Lo Duca's average climbed to .382. He even recorded a 6 for 6 night against Colorado on May 28.

The team went in a 9-14 tailspin, by the end of which Lo Duca was down to .327 and no longer leading off. They then won 9 straight, mostly with Lo Duca leading off, and with him sharing the leadoff spot, the Dodgers ended July 15 games above .500. But the team cooled off in early August, and after a loss on August 11, their eighth in 12 games, Tracy abandoned his bold experiment. Since then they've been three games below .500 and their offense has been well below average.

I decided to study the matter a bit further, examining the box scores of every Dodger game and recording who the leadoff hitter was, how many runs the team scored, and the team's record in those games. Here's what I found (RPG is runs per game; Opp RPG is runs allowed per game):

           Apr    May    Jun   Jul    Aug   Sep    TOT   RPG

Goodwin   12-5    7-7    6-2   3-4    0-1   3-1  31-20  4.52

Lo Duca     --    6-2   5-12  10-2    4-3   --   25-19  5.06

Beltre      --     --    --    --     8-8   2-1   10-9  4.94

Grissom    3-5    2-1    --    --     --    1-4   6-10  4.25

Others      --    0-3    2-0   5-3    0-4   0-1   7-11  4.17

Totals   15-10  15-13  13-14  18-9  12-16   6-7  79-69  4.68

RPG       4.84   4.14   5.33  5.04   4.39  4.08   4.68

Opp RPG   3.80   4.64   5.48  4.41   4.71  4.31   4.63

The results aren't quite as clear-cut as I would have guessed, but this chart does reveal a few things. The Dodgers started off the season pretty well; with their rotation more or less intact, they had a strong April, strong enough to overcome Goodwin's woeful performance in the leadoff spot. But as the pitching started to unravel, Goodwin's performance began to drag the team down, and Tracy made the switch. Then the pitching really fell apart, once Brown went down in June, and while the offense was clicking, the team struggled. Tracy stuck with Lo Duca, and the team really hit its stride. But when they began to struggle again, Tracy abandoned the experiment. Since then he hasn't stuck with anybody for very long in the leadoff spot, and the team has slipped despite decent pitching.

Goodwin's the type of player whose only real asset offensively is his speed. His career OBP isn't great for a leadoff hitter (.334) but it's a damn sight better than what he's given the Dodgers this season. Marquis Grissom plays ball like his doppelganger, comedian Martin Lawrence, and he gets on base slightly less often. The Marquis de Sade drew an amazing total of 3 walks in 278 ABs through July; if that's not grounds for a restraining order preventing Tracy from leading him off, it ought to be. Adrian Beltre is a good young third baseman (only 22) who has taken a step backwards with the bat this season; his OPS has fallen from 835 in 2000 to 725 this year, no doubt partially due to the shockingly inept medical care he received following his appendectomy. He's got some speed, but given his low OBP, he's a poor choice for a leadoff hitter.

I don't have any information on why Tracy abandoned the Lo Duca experiment. With sluggers like Sheffield and Shawn Green hitting behind him in the lineup, having a leadoff hitter who gets on base 38 percent of the time would seem to be a great improvement over one who gets on 26 percent of the time--about a half run per game, according to the chart above. I suspect Lo Duca simply didn't fit Tracy's image of what a leadoff hitter should be--maybe he's slow even for a catcher, or maybe Tracy felt he needed Lo Duca to protect his other big bats. But just as Tracy deserves some credit for what went right with the Dodgers this year, he deserves some blame for abandoning something which was obviously working in favor of something whose results were at best a mixed bag. Short of hiring a skywriter to break the news to Tracy, all I can do is watch the Dodgers' season slip down the tubes.