The Futility Infielder

Yankees-A's: Measuring the Rotations

I don't have enough time to do all of the in-depth analysis I'd like to regarding the playoff matchup between the Yankees and the A's. But I did want to take a look at what is probably the series' most important aspect, starting pitching.

There's a lot of talk about how good the A's top 3 pitchers (Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito) are. They're young, they're successful, and with two out of three lefties, they're likely to give the Yanks plenty of trouble. But looking at their combined stats compared to the Yanks big 3 (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Mike Mussina), I don't see a distinct advantage. Both have impressive Won-Loss records, and their ERAs are virtually a wash. The Yanks trio has better strikeout-related ratios and better durability (I excluded Andy Pettitte's recent 3-pitch outing from the IP/GS calculation because it's such an obvious fluke, but they still come out ahead if you factor that in). Both teams play in pitchers' parks, but Oakland's is a more extreme one, which leads me to give the Yanks trio a slight upper hand.

Yanks Big 3 combined:
52-24 (.684), 3.53 ERA, 649.2 IP, 6.70 IP/GS, 1.21 WHIP, 3.88 K/W, 8.18 K/9

A's Big 3 combined:
56-25 (.691), 3.43 ERA, 678.2 IP, 6.53 IP/GS, 1.20 WHIP, 2.66 K/W, 7.14 K/9

The key here is bases on balls: both Mussina (1.65 walks per 9) and Pettitte (1.84) are very stingy with the walks, as is Mulder (2.00). Hudson (2.72), Clemens (2.94) and Zito (3.36) are considerably higher in this department. Given the emphasis both teams place on drawing walks, an advantage here could be significant. It isn't too big a stretch to say that the Yanks have been known to turn a postseason series around on the basis of a single base on balls.

As it stands, both managers are planning to use four-man rotations, and on the surface it would appear that Oakland has an edge. Unless the two managers deviate from their plans, Cory Lidle (13-6, 3.59) opposes Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez (4-7, 4.85). But El Duque was 0-5, 5.14 when he went on the DL for two months, and he finished the season looking like the one in the catalog, going 4-1, 2.88 in September and October. Of course, he's been nothing but money for the Yanks in Octobers past: 8-1, 2.20. If he's healthy--and at the very least he should be well-rested--that's a big plus in favor of the Yankees.

Looking at the home-road breakdowns of the pitching matchups, with Games 1 and 2 in New York, Games 3 and 4 in Oakland, and Game 5 back in da Bronx:

Game 1: Clemens (10-1, 3.10 at home) vs. Mulder (10-6, 4.12 on the road)
Game 2: Pettitte (10-3, 3.16 at home) vs. Hudson (11-5, 3.33 on the road)
Game 3: Mussina (6-6, 3.19 on the road) vs. Zito (9-3, 3.71 at home)
Game 4: Hernandez (3-4, 4.74 on the road) vs. Lidle (8-5, 4.03 at home)

The Yanks have the better ERA in 3 of the four matchups. But the most interesting thing about these breakdowns is two splits that aren't shown because they're not scheduled to come into play: Mulder was dominant in Oakland (11-2, 2.69); Andy Pettite has struggled away from Yankee Stadium (5-7, 4.97). That combination of non-occurrences definitely favors the Yanks (still with me?). Based on this, I'd conclude that the Yanks rotation is better optimized for the venues and the schedule.

As I see it:

* The key for the Yanks starters is simply the health of Pettitte and Hernandez. With serious question marks hanging over their heads, both pitched well in their tuneups last weekend, but Pettitte has been very
spotty in the second half (6-6, 5.22).
* The key for the A's starters is whether the extra innings they've thrown this season will catch up to them. So far there aren't any signs of that; like the rest of the team, they are, dare I say, en fuego: a combined 14-3 with a 2.81 ERA since the beginning of September. But their big three all three set career highs for themselves in Innings Pitched, by a wide margin, and they're in uncharted territory now.
* The Yanks rotation has a huge advantage in postseason experience, with 51 starts and 23 postseason wins versus 2 starts and 1 win.

It's a classic experience-vs.-youth showdown, and of course I'm not addressing the other aspects of both teams. But this one's probably going 5, and if I had to pick, I'd take the Yanks because of the home-field advantage and because their rotation is better set up for the venue. That may be an analysis that comes more from the heart than the head--after all, I could dig through statistical splits until the cows come home and end up proving entirely the opposite of what I'm arguing here. But these Yanks have shown me too much over this extended championship run to ever count them out.

Other picks:

Seattle over Cleveland in 4 (I'll admit, I revised this from my post earlier today on Baseball Primer, after the Indians surprised everyone by taking Game 1)
Atlanta over Houston in 4
Arizona over St. Louis in 5

Right now, I don't see the Yanks getting past Seattle even if they should survive Oakland, but the time to worry about the nuts and bolts of that matchup is a long ways away. As for the National League, I'd love to see Houston finally shed their postseason jinx, but I don't think that's going to happen. My money is on whoever wins the Arizona-St. Louis matchup going to the World Series and losing to the American League representative, no matter who shows up.