The Futility Infielder

Remaking the Yankees, Part III: Corner Outfielders

Corner outfielders, along with first basemen and designated hitters, are supposed to be the staples of a team's offense--the big hitters, the guys who put runs on the board. One of the Yanks' biggest problems last year was the poor production from their left- and rightfielders and designated hitters. Looking at their production using Baseball Prospectus's Equivalent Runs (as I did in Part I of this article), specifically Runs Above Position, the Yanks didn't have a single corner outfielder who was above average (I should take the time to point out here that the average is for the 30 teams, not a "league average" as I said in Part I). Rightfielder Paul O'Neill, since retired, was 2.4 runs below, Chuck Knoblauch was 15.7 runs below, David Justice (who spent more time at DH) was 9.6 below, and Shane Spencer was 7.7 below.

It's interesting that in both left- and rightfield, the bulk of the offensive talent is in the National League, and by a wide margin. The top six NL LFs (Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Lance Berkman, Gary Sheffield, Brian Giles, and Cliff Floyd ) all outpaced their AL counterparts, and by a wide margin--Bonds was 126.5 runs above average (having the best offensive season ever by most measures), Gonzalez 101.3, with the other four closely bunched between 67.5 (Giles) and 76.6 (Berkman). Mark McLemore was the top AL LF at 39.6, with the likes of Frank Catalanotto, Shannon Stewart, Bobby Higginson, Stan Javier, and Marty Cordova--not exactly staples of anybody's MVP ballot--behind him. Over in RF, Sammy Sosa (77.1), Larry Walker (41.0), Shawn Green (35.9), and J.D. Drew (30.1) were the top four, with Juan Gonzalez leading the AL at 28.3.

I'm not sure why this productivity imbalance exists--my initial hunch was the presence of the designated hitter, but looking at that list, only Manny Ramirez would rank in that class if considered as an OF. The AL does have its share of leadoff hitters who saw time in 2001 at corner spots. Ichiro, Shannon Stewart, Catalanotto, and Knoblauch all played the bulk of their games in left or right, and centerfielders Roger Cedeno and Johnny Damon saw significant time there as well.

Having looked at the leadoff options available on the market in Part II of this series, my conclusion was that it doesn't make sense for the Yanks to sign a leadoff type like Kenny Lofton or Roger Cedeno. Neither is an especially productive hitter for a leadoff, and both have significant drawbacks. Better the Yanks should go after a more traditionally productive hitter to fill either left- or rightfield, and then fill the other spot internally.

There are several players of that variety, both on the free agent market (listed below in the first cluster) and as trade possibilities (the second cluster):

                Age   2001 OBP/SLG/SL*OB    Career OBP/SLG/SL*OB   RARP

Moises Alou      35    .396/.554/.219         .372/.524/.194       38.2

Barry Bonds      37    .515/.863/.444         .419/.585/.245      145.0

Marty Cordova    32    .348/.506/.176         .346/.451/.156       19.6

Johnny Damon     28    .324/.363/.118         .346/.425/.147        8.9

Juan Gonzalez    32    .370/.590/.218         .345/.568/.196       49.3

Reggie Sanders   34    .337/.549/.185         .350/.484/.169       19.6



Cliff Floyd      29    .390/.578/.225         .355/.486/.173       55.7

Raul Mondesi     31    .342/.453/.155         .335/.499/.167       18.8

Gary Sheffield   33    .417/.583/.243         .399/.521/.208       63.2

Dmitri Young     28    .350/.481/.168         .351/.468/.164       18.6

Some of these players don't have an ice cube's chance in hell of signing with the Yanks, especially if they sign Jason Giambi. Barry Bonds and Juan Gonzalez both fit into that category. I included Johnny Damon for several reasons. Though I didn't deal with him much in the leadoff article since the Yanks haven't shown much interest in him, he is young enough and has shown enough talent over the course of that young career to be a significant step up from the other three. But I also wanted to show where this "best of available class" player fits in, productivity-wise, compared to some of the heavier hitters.

I included (Equivalent) Runs Above Replacement Position in this chart, rather than Runs Above Position because I felt it works better for cross-postion comparisons. Notice that if we rank them by RARP, it correlates almost exactly with this year's SL*OB figures for these players.

None of these players is without his question marks:
• Bonds, though he won't sign with the Yanks, is the oldest of the bunch, making a long-term contract something of a risk. He is, as we've seen, not exactly free from controversy with regards to his teammates. But there's no getting around what a great hitter he is.
• Sheffield is a devastating hitter, but historically a disruptive presence just about anywhere he goes. He would likely cost the most when salary and the amount of talent needed in exchange are considered.
• Gonzalez is a fine hitter who has had back problems which have scared teams away. He rejected a trade to the Yanks in 2000, and though he now says he'd be willing to play in New York, that may be just a bargaining ploy. He answered some of the questions about his health with a strong season in Cleveland last year.
• Alou is getting on in years, and has had his share of health problems. He has downplayed the possibility of coming to New York in the past, but may be warming to the idea. He's being sought by several teams, including the Red Sox and the Mets.
• Floyd spends a lot of time on the DL; he's averaged only 111 games a year over the past five seasons, and only 135 over the past two, thanks to knee and back problems. He's a few years younger than the other heavy hitters here, which does make him more desirable. But the Florida Marlins' situation, with no General Manager in place and contraction still a remote possibility, may delay his being moved.
• Cordova, a former Rookie of the Year, had his best season since 1996 and re-emerged as a solid player. Whether he can maintain that performance is open to debate; he tailed off dramatically after the All-Star break (.379 OBP/.535 SLG/.203 SL*OB before, .316/.474/.150 after).
• Sanders may as well be nicknamed "Sick-Note"; he's averaged 124 games a year over the past four seasons, and never topped 138 games.
• Mondesi is coming off a disappointing season, and it's beginning to look as if he may never fulfill his potential; he's still never driven in 100 runs in a season, and his power has fallen off despite moving to a more favorable park. His defense, including one of the game's best arms, does add something to his value, though whether he's worth his $10 million is open to debate.
• Young, a switch-hitter who hits both righties and lefties well, doesn't have as much power as one would like, but may add some as he matures. He's had trouble staying in shape in the past. Young is eligible for arbitration, but would probably be cheaper than most of the others listed here (with the possible exception of Cordova).
• Damon was almost a total flop in Oakland after a .382/.495/.189 season in Kansas City the year before. He had a terrible first half (.301/.357/.107) and a so-so second (.351/.372/.131), and it's been posited that he couldn't handle the pressure of playing in New York. He does still have a very good upside, however.

Taking all of this in and considering the salary ramificiations of a potential Jason Giambi signing, Alou, Mondesi, Floyd, Cordova, and Young appear to be the best candidates here. All have their positives: Alou is the best hitter of the bunch; Mondesi would give them a world-class arm in right field, and may find rejuvenation in a change of scenery; Cordova may come relatively cheap; Floyd (a lefty) and Young (a switch-hitter) would be the best fits for Yankee Stadium, and both are fairly young and cheap (Floyd is in the final year of a 4-year, $19 million contract; Young is arbitration eligible after making $3.5 million in 2001).

Floyd, Young, and Mondesi would all require a significant surrender of talent--Mondesi possibly a premium because the Blue Jays are in the Yanks' division. Young has long been the subject of trade rumors, but Reds GM Jim Bowden may be asking too much for him. Bowden has had his eye on the prospective starters in the Mariners' organization in exchange for Young for quite awhile, and the Yanks simply can't compete with that without affecting their own long-term plans.

Supposing the Yanks manage to trade for Floyd or sign Alou, it's likely they'll stick with Shane Spencer and David Justice in the other outfield slot and at DH. Justice had a miserable 2001 season (.333/.430/.143, compared to career marks of .378/.507/.192). He had off-season hernia surgery and battled both groin and domestic problems all year. While the Yanks might like to trade him, he didn't exactly showcase himself in the postseason. Given an offseason to recuperate, he may still have productive days ahead of him--the Yanks would certainly accept a year in line with his normal level of performance. Spencer was slightly below his own meager standards (.315/.428/.135, compared to a career .324/.468/.152), but he heated up as the year wore on (.339/.439/.149 after the break). He's valuable as a platoon player (he kills lefties), and his defense has come a long way, but if he's ever going to have a Bubba Trammell-like breakout season, this may be his one shot.

Other internal options exist for the Yanks. Nick Johnson, who until the Yanks started their pursuit of Jason Giambi was slated as the first baseman of the future, may see a good chunk of at bats at DH, and may even get a shot at playing the outfield in spring training (if he's not traded, that is). Another rookie who may figure into the Yanks' plans is Juan Rivera. The skinny 23-year old Rivera hit .322 with 28 HRs in a season split between AA Norwich and AAA Columbus (.360/.557/.201), and early reports are that he may be in the Bronx by midseason.

On a different tack, Alfonso Soriano may be shifted to left field (where he was slated to begin the 2001 season before the Knoblauch experiment) if the Yanks switch gears and land another second baseman. They've expressed interest in Brett Boone and Robbie Alomar, both of whom would cost as much as the high-end corner outfielders discussed above. This is probably a longshot right now.

It's likely the Yanks will dredge up a free-agent or two signed to a minor-league contract to compete for some at bats at DH (Glenallen Hill, please have your agent call Brian Cashman if you are healthy). Last year the Yanks were positively wretched there, batting only .218 (.320/.397/.127). Freely-available talent that can fill this slot abounds; the Yanks just need to bring in some warm bodies to find one or two able ones who fit the bill.

Boiling it all down... my guess is that the Yanks will go after Floyd unless the Marlins' situation causes too much delay or they can get Alou at terms favorable to them. They will then mix and match with Spencer, Justice, Johnson and eventually Rivera to fill the other two slots. But no matter what they do, there's no question help is on the way, and while it will probably cost some money and some minor-league talent, they won't have to break the bank to get some.

In Part IV of this series, I'll examine the Yanks third-base situation.