The Futility Infielder

Remaking the Yankees, Part IV: Third Base

Scott Brosius surprised the baseball world by announcing his retirement last week. Thirty-five years old and facing free agency, but with four straight trips to the World Series to show for his time in the Bronx, Brosius concluded he'd done it all and decided to hang 'em up. All of this despite the fact that he'd posted his best season in three years and had a reasonable shot at either a one-year deal with the Yankees or a longer-term contract elsewhere, possibly with the Seattle Mariners. You could do worse. But more power to Brosius for choosing to spend time with his family. He'll certainly be missed in the place where he showed the best defense since Graig Nettles and had his share of big hits.

Feel-good stories aside, the Yankees now find themselves between hops at the hot corner. Former University of Michigan quarterback and potential Heisman Trophy winner Drew Henson is clearly The Future. The trouble is, the Yanks have no Present in place.

The Yankees drafted Henson in 1998, signing him for a $2 million bonus. In need of immediate pitching help, they traded him to the Cincinnati Reds in the Denny Neagle deal last July. But after Henson flexed the muscle of his NFL leverage (as in, pay me or I'll continue to play football), the impoverished Reds sent him back to the Yanks (along with outfield bust Michael Coleman) in March for 19-year old prospect Wily Mo Pena.

Henson certainly has physical tools--he's 6'5", 222 lbs with an outstanding arm. And he's certainly got a commitment from the Yankees to make him their third baseman sooner or later--he signed a six-year, $17 million deal upon being reacquired. But he doesn't have much experience in professional baseball; last year was his first full season devoted to the sport. Hit by a pitch, he broke a bone in his hand in April, and struggled once he returned in June. In 303 at bats, mostly with AAA Columbus, he hit .228 with 12 HR and 43 RBI. His peripheral numbers are not pretty--.265 OPB, .370 SLG, and only 13 walks to go with 99 strikeouts. He also found time to make 20 errors in the field.

Henson did play well in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .314 AVG/.407 OBP/.570 SLG, with 6 HR and 33 RBI--good enough for Peter Gammons to slobber over, at least. But at last report, the likes of Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, and Freddy Garcia were nowhere to be found in Arizona. There's a good reason they don't print AFL stats on the back of a baseball card.

The Yanks' organizational consensus seems to be that Henson will start the season at AAA, but may be in the Bronx by midsummer, though Joe Torre has left the door open for Henson to win the job in spring training. I think this is wildly optimistic (look at that K/W ratio, if nothing else). Given that the Yanks haven't rushed any of their prospects along in quite awhile, it would be surprising if they start with Henson.

So that leaves a sizable gap at third base. The free agent market for third basemen is a thin one. The only name that has been linked with the Yankees is that of Randy Velarde, acquired by the Yanks from Texas just before the postseason roster deadline. The 39-year-old Velarde suffered through hamstring problems last season, and didn't hit much after being acquired. His 200-hit season of just two years ago is a distant memory. He's not a great third baseman (career .934 fielding percentage); he's only played 14 games there in the past four seasons. Here he is, along with the rest of the class:

               Age  2001 OBP/SLG/SL*OB      Career OBP/SLG/SL*OB

David Bell      29   .303/.415/.126           .309/.396/.122  

Vinny Castilla  34   .308/.467/.144           .331/.504/.167 

Craig Paquette  33   .326/.465/.153           .281/.426/.120 

Ed Sprague      34   .374/.436/.163 (94 AB)   .318/.419/.133 

Randy Velarde   39   .356/.424/.151           .353/.410/.145 

Castilla's numbers have been vastly inflated by seven years in Colorado. But interestingly enough, he struggled last season in the second-best hitter's park in the free world, Enron Field, performing much better away from Enron (.337/.498/.168) than at home (.279/.435/.121).

By the end of last season, the Yanks were deep with stop-gap solutions at third. Hell, Joe Torre's postseason bench was geared toward the possiblity of a third baseman or two getting mauled by man-eating tigers or washed away in a flood every three innings. No less than four bench players on the postseason roster--Velarde, Luis Sojo, Enrique Wilson, and Clay Bellinger--saw time there in 2001. Sojo has retired to await his bobble-headed coronation and the first annual Futility Infielder of the Year Award. This leaves:

                Age  2001 OBP/SLG/SL*OB    Career OBP/SLG/SL*OB

Enrique Wilson   26   .238/.281/.067         .305/.364/.111 

Clay Bellinger   33   .207/.383/.079         .258/.365/.094

I have never understood the infatuation with Wilson, on the part of either the Yankees or any other organization. He's only 25, and he's reportedly got "soft hands." But he can't hit a lick, and he looks like a young acolyte of the Luis Sojo bodybuilding program. After a miserable half-season in Pittsburgh, he did "improve" with semi-regular playing time in pinstripes (.283/.343/.097). He's reportedly the leading contender to open the season at third. Greaaaaat.

Bellinger is as useful a 25th man as there is in baseball. Pinch-running, playing every position except catcher (but hustling out of the dugout to warm up pitchers after the catcher makes the last out), telling the boys they're not out of it yet, and generally keeping the bench planks from warping, he's a valuable guy to have around. Defensively, he played a great third base for a couple weeks when Scott Brosius broke his hand in August, and even hit a few homers in that span. But no one is going to pencil his name in the Opening Day lineup; it's just that way when you buy property below the Mendoza Line.

Should the Yanks be forced to go with a Giambi-free Plan B, they may decide to trade for a bigger bat at third. The Mets' Robin Ventura, 34 and coming off of his second straight sub-par season (.359/.419/.150), is up for grabs, but the Yanks, who explored the possibility of acquiring him before they got Velarde last summer, want the Mets to take on most of his $8 million salary. As Ventura's salary continues to hamper Mets GM Steve Phillips' free-agent options, he may become available. The New York Post reported Wednesday that a Ventura-for-David Justice deal has been discussed, but it's hard to see how that trade helps either team from a financial standpoint. It might solve the Yanks short-term third base needs, but at the expense of outfield production.

If the Yanks really decided to make a splash, they could trade for the Phillies' Scott Rolen. Rolen, who will be free of blowhards Larry Bowa and Dallas Green by the end of 2002 if not sooner, is a fine young player entering his prime, with three Gold Gloves already to his name. In a slightly down season, he still hit .289 with 25 HR and 107 RBI (.378/498/.188). He would require significant talent in exchange (Johnson plus pitching, at least), and then a hefty long-term contract to make it worthwhile. But with Henson already slated to get paid and with significantly less value to any team besides the Yankees (because they fear he could resume his football career), it ain't gonna happen.

The bottom line is that the Yanks expectations (and budget) for third base are pretty low right now. An Enrique Wilson/Clay Bellinger tandem may be a bit too ramshackle to get by with--they pretty much define the concept of "replacement level" ballplayers. Though I realize that more pressing matters have required the attention of Brian Cashman and company, I'm surprised the Yanks haven't pursued Velarde more vigorously. He may be old and less than ideal, but unlike the two above, he is a proven major-league hitter, and would make an ideal #2 hitter behind Derek Jeter, certainly better than Alfonso Soriano at this stage.

Given that Velarde missed the Yanks' championship run (leaving after '95 and returning last season), it's a safe bet he'd re-up for another shot at a ring if given the option, even if it's just to keep Henson's seat warm.

Torre's projections aside, I don't think we've heard the last word on the subject. Expect the Yankees to do SOMETHING to bolster the situation, but don't expect too many barehanded plays on grounders this summer. Scott Brosius is taking those all back to Oregon. Sigh...

Recapping it all... if you haven't read the first three parts of this series, they are conveniently located below. Here is a summary of my cumulative proposals for the Yankees' offensive remake, in the form of a batting order. This does not assume rampant, unchecked spending ("...and we'll sign Boone, and we'll trade for Rolen and sign him...") or the kind of pipe dreams proffered by the likes of the New York Post. I think it's very realistic, given the statements that are coming out of the Yankees' brass and my own analysis:

1 Jeter SS
2 Velarde 3B
3 Giambi 1B
4 Williams CF
5 Alou RF or Floyd LF
6 Posada C
7 Justice DH
8 Spencer/Johnson RF or LF (platoon)
9 Soriano 2B

I think the Yanks, if they are going to keep Johnson, are best served by trying to find out if he can play the outfield. If Shane Spencer can make himself into a passable outfielder, then Johnson ought to be able to. Spencer kills lefties, and could pick up the defensive scraps when necessary; otherwise the Yanks ought to see if Johnson can hit big league pitching, particularly righties.

The one negative about this lineup is defense. Though Brosius had a lousy year with the glove, Velarde would be hard-pressed to upgrade the position significantly. Alou or Floyd won't challenge for a Gold Glove, and neither will Giambi, especially when compared to Tino Martinez's stellar defense. Spencer/Johnson could be an adventure, but so was Chuck Knoblauch, and we all lived through that. But this lineup is a significant step up offensively, with major improvements at 1B, one corner outfield slot, and DH likely. It ought to be enough to put the Yanks back among the top offenses in the league. At the price, it had better.

I'll be checking out the Yankees' pitching options this weekend...