The Futility Infielder

Remaking the Yankees, Part V-Point-Two: Patching the Rotation

In my last piece, I examined the Yankee pitching rotation's performance in 2001, and pointed out the gulf that existed between their top-line starters and the back of the rotation. Today I'll examine their options for constructing the rotation for 2002.

Their Big Three--Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettite--will return as the front end, and while one could quibble about various aspects of their performance, they provide a strong foundation that nearly any team would kill for. Clemens will turn 40 in August, but has pitched significantly better in the latter half of his thirties (three Cy Youngs in the Dan Duquette-termed "twilight of his career") than the former half, so this shouldn't be too much cause for alarm. Mussina, coming off of arguably his finest season, just turned 33 and should be more comfortable in New York than he was last year. Pettitte improved his control considerably and showed signs of evolving into a power pitcher. He turns 30 in mid-June and already has 115 major-league wins under his belt. You could do worse.

Which brings us to the back end of the rotation, where two spots are up for grabs right now. Speculation about this has been rampant since the World Series, with everybody from David Wells to John Smoltz to Hideo Nomo to Jason Schmidt mentioned as a possible free-agent signing. Additionally, three pitchers who saw limited time in the Yanks' rotation in 2001 are still in the mix as of this writing, though that situation could change very soon.

So without further ado, let's take a look at some of the candidates (ages are as of July 1, 2002, innings are rounded to the nearest whole, ERA+ is a measure which compares the pitcher's ERA to the park-adjusted league average--100 means that the pitcher was league-average, a 110 ERA+ means the pitcher was 10 percent better than the league average):

                Age   --------2001--------   ------Career------

                      IP  W-L   ERA  ERA+    W-L     ERA  ERA+

Hernandez (R)   36    95  4-7  5.63   92    45-33   4.13  113

Hitchcock (L)   30    70  6-5  5.63   77    67-67   4.75   91

Lilly     (L)   26   121  5-6  5.37   83     5-7    5.73   79

Wells     (L)   39   101  5-7  4.47  103   166-114  4.08  110

Nomo      (R)   33   198 13-10 4.50  101    82-71   4.05  104

Schmidt   (R)   29   150 13-7  4.07  103    56-54   4.50   97

Not exactly the most promising lot, at first glance--no one who was significantly better than league average in ERA, at least. Several of the pitchers are coming off of injuries: El Duque missed two months with toe surgery and had question-marks about his elbow hanging over his head all season; Hitchcock came back from Tommy John surgery; Wells was shelved after June 28 with a back problem that required the knife.

A closer look at each once:

• Acquired near the trading deadline from San Diego last summer, Hitchcock may be close to re-signing or already re-signed as I write this, but the Yanks have been delaying their official free-agent announcements until they seal the Giambi deal. Reportedly it's a 2-year, $12 million contract. I'm not big on the idea. Coming off of surgery, Hitchcock was tagged routinely until October, when he gained enough strength to give his fastball some life (it was in the high 80s, not exactly Ryan country). In October, he went 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA in 17.2 innings, pitching a complete game in the season's final week, then picking up a win in Game 5 of the World Series. He's a good strikeout pitcher (7.0 per 9 IP, with a career high of 194) when healthy. But Hitchcock has never put together a season with a winning record and a better-than-average ERA. And he's never won more than 13 games. They say lefty pitchers don't really find themselves until they're 30; while it's possible Hitchcock could develop into a solid 12-10 man, I don't see much more upside than that.

• Hernandez was once considered to be one of the many aces of the Yankee staff. But he's only 16-20 the past two years, with a 4.61 ERA (105 ERA+), and he may have worn out his welcome with his enigmatic tendencies (including lying about his age) and his macho refusal to report injuries. From where I sit, the Yanks have cultivated the existing communications gap just as much as El Duque. Their failure to retain first base coach Jose Cardenal, El Duque's translator, after the '98 season, and subsequently not hire a Spanish-speaking coach has contributed greatly to El Duque's wariness of communicating with the Yankees' staff.

Hernandez is a free agent, but one with fewer than six years of major league service, and thus still bound to the Yanks (so long as they offer him a contract by December 20). He's been the subject of several trade rumors, most recently in a package to Anaheim for Daren Erstad. Nobody really knows how many miles are on El Duque's arm at this point and Yanks aren't sure they want to find out.

But given his past two seasons, I don't think he's liable to command a big contract, and at the price (say, $4-6 million), the Yanks aren't going to find a pitcher with more big-game experience and a higher upside, even given his age. He pitched well in September (4-1, 2.88 ERA) and had two solid, gutty starts in the postseason (the third start, in the 14-3 drubbing they took in Game 3 of the ALCS, was right after the death of his father, as we later learned). If the Yanks are going on late-season auditions, his was much more substantial than Hitchcock's, and he probably won't cost more.

• Lilly had his ups and downs in his rookie season, making 21 starts for the Yanks. There's definitely some promise there--in 120.2 innings, he struck out 112 and only allowed 126 hits. But as his ERA attests, he took his lumps. His troubles were due to giving up too many walks (3.8 per 9 IP) and too many homers (1.5 per 9 IP). Better control and more experience are all he needs--he doesn't lack for stuff or the ability to challenge hitters. I'd hate to see him wearing another uniform when become the #3-#4 starter he looks to be.

• Nomo hasn't drawn serious interest from the Yankees. He broke off talks with the Red Sox, who were reportedly offering 3 years at $20 million, and thus will be searching for his seventh team in the past five years. He showed flashes of brilliance in 2001, including a no-hiter in his first start for Boston. But he was awful in the second half, collapsing with the rest of the team: after a 5-0 July, he went 2-6 with a 6.98 ERA. And if you want a communications gap, well... remember that Hideki Irabu wasn't that long ago. End of story.

• Schmidt is a pitcher the Yanks have long coveted, dating back to his days as a Pittsburgh Pirate (ironically enough, the outfielder he was traded for last summer, John Vander Wal, was just landed in a trade for Jay Witasick). He missed the first five weeks of 2001 after undergoing surgery to repair a frayed rotator cuff in August 2000. Still, he posted the strongest season of his career, and is seeking a long-term deal. Reportedly, he's close to one with the Giants (at 4 years + option for $34 million) or the Mariners, while the Yankees have yet to make an offer. He would be a decent addition, but I wouldn't bother leaving the light on for him at this point.

• Wells has been itching to get back into pinstripes since the moment he left in the Roger Clemens trade. If it's ever going to happen, now is the time. Cast adrift after an injury-shortened season which followed yet another controversial trade, he is reportedly prepared to accept a low up-front, incentive-laden contract to prove he's healthy. He has his suitors; the Rangers are interested, and Wells's agent has called attention to the Diamondbacks' interest--probably to spur George Steinbrenner's competitive check-writing juices. I wouldn't normally go around recommending 39-year-old overweight pitchers with outsized personalities who are coming off of back surgery, but hey, this is Boomer--a man who lives to pitch in Yankee Stadium and who does it as well as any active player (28-9, 3.27 ERA lifetime). When he's healthy, he eats innings with the same voracious appetite he has for salted meat products (200+ innings for six straight years, several bouts of gout as well). Torre may be wary of some of his personality traits, but with something to prove and a small safety net to work with, Wells is liable to be on his best behavior. At the price, he may be worth a gamble even if he knocks Lilly back into the bullpen for awhile.

With Hitchcock all but signed, the Yanks have the jump on me here. I've more or less given the thumbs-up to three pitchers, all of them relatively known commodities in Yankeeland, and none of them Hitchcock. If he's added, that leaves my trio competing for one spot. It's possible Lilly would start the season in the bullpen, though a trade isn't out of the question (I'd hate to see it happen, though). And the Yanks have several young hurlers on the horizon (Brandon Claussen, Alex Graman, Adrian "El Duquecito" Hernandez, and Brandon Knight--see this handy article at mlbprospect.com for more on them) who may push Lilly out the door.

Meaning, even if you stash Lilly in the bullpen, it probably comes down to a choice between El Duque or Boomer. Two old guys, questionable health-wise but with no shortage of personality or history with the Yanks. I'd hate to have to choose between the two. My emotional attachment to both may be clouding my judgement, but I think they're each capable of solid seasons at a reasonable price. With Pettitte, Hitchcock, and Lilly in the fold, the Yanks would be stocked for lefty starters and I can't see that adding another (Wells) would make as much sense. So I'd pick El Duque. But my gut feeling is that the Yanks are leaning the other direction, partially because Hernandez has some trade value, because they feel compelled to punish El Duque for his enigmatic ways, and because it's no secret George Steinbrenner has a soft spot for the big man. While I'd welcome seeing Boomer in pinstripes under nearly every other circumstance, I'd hate to see the crafty Cuban go on his way.

I'll evaluate the Yanks' bullpen this weekend. Meanwhile, the announcements have come down: the Giambi deal is done, Rondell White has been signed to a 2-year, $10 million contract and will play leftfield, and John Vander Wal was acquired in a trade for Jay Witasick and will likely platoon with Shane Spencer in right. First, White: a 30-year-old product of the Expos system who the Yanks tried to get last year before acquiring David Justice, White brings a similar reputation to Justice for being injury-prone. He's been on the DL seven times in the past six years, he's averaged only 110 games a year over that span. But when he plays, he does hit--.351 career OBP, .484 SLG, .371 and .529 in 95 games last year. White is a relative bargain when compared to Moises Alou, who seemed to intentionally price himself out of the market. His speed has decreased considerably with his knee problems (only 6 SB the past two seasons after a high of 25 and five straight years of double-digits), and he's certainly a risk. But he may well flourish if healthy. Vander Wal: a 36-year-old lefty with a .364 OBP and .442 SLG (.357 and .442 for his career) who's become a semi-regular after being one of the game's best pinch-hiters. He doesn't have great range or a great arm, but he's relatively sure-handed. Adding him to a platoon with Spencer automatically strengthens the bench. And by trading away Witasick, a middle-relief bust acquired for infielder D'Angelo Jiminez, Yanks GM Brian Cashman may finally get the rabid sabermetric critics of that deal to put a sock in it. Which is worth something in the circles I travel in.

One final note of gratitude for Pete Sommers at Baseball News Blog and Sean Forman at Baseball Primer for highlighting this series in their web logs. This page is on its third straight week of record-high readership thanks in part to their kind words. I hope those of you coming here for the first time have been sufficiently impressed to keep coming back for more (take a look around the rest of the site while you're here). I promise it's not all Yankees, all the time--I've got several other pieces in the works when I'm done with the Big Makeover.