The Futility Infielder

Getting Off Base

While Pirates manager Lloyd McClendenon provided a highly entertaining exception last year, the old adage "you can't steal first base" is as true as it ever was. If not even truer--for if sabermetrics has taught us anything, it's the importance of getting on base to make an offense go. It doesn't take a propellerhead to figure out that baseball is at its heart a very simple game: score more runs than your opponent, and make your allotted 27 outs last as long as possible in order to do so. A disciplined hitter drawing a walk beats a slap-hitter showing off his speed as he grounds out to short--every time.

As sabermetrics has brought the fruits of its labor to the public attention, the past few years have seen an emphasis on On Base Percentage in baseball management circles, most notably with the Yankees (prior to last year's model, at least) and the Oakland A's. And while evidence that those inside and outside the game are catching on abounds (though if it's "a fad," as this article states, then so is gravity), the talk coming out of the mouths of some managers and players in recent days is surprisingly unenlightened.

Exhibit A Dodger manager Jim Tracy named Cesar Itzuris his new shortstop, a reasonable choice given his options (Alex Cora, the poor manager's Rey Ordoñez?). Itzuris is four years younger than Cora, and a better hitter, though not by that much (his minor league OBP is a lousy .294). Whatever englightenment Tracy showed in choosing Itzuris, he threatened to undo it in one fell swoop in telling the LA Times that his new shortstop will "bring some energy, some speed, and the potential to create more run-scoring opportunities to the top of the lineup." Tracy is apparently "tinkering with" the idea of batting Itzuris leadoff, though a more likely scenario has him hitting second--with one of the Dodgers appalling centerfield options, Dave Roberts (30 years old, career OBP .292 in 165 major league at-bats) leading off.

Tracy had a mixed track record in his first season at the Dodger helm. He kept a team with a decimated pitching staff in the pennant race until the final week of the season, but he bore a fair share of responsibility for a wheezing offense. He worked through leadoff options both unconventionally great (Paul Lo Duca, .374 OPB) and unimaginably awful (the $8.4 million, two-headed, sub-.300 OBP vortex of suck that is Tom Goodwin and Marquis Grissom), and shot himself in the foot more often than not. If he refuses to learn from his mistakes, it's going to be a long season in Chavez Ravine. [Late breaking news: Rob Neyer writes about the Dodgers' on-base problems in his column today.]

Exhibit B Phillies manager Larry Bowa has come under fire in this space for attempting to tinker with the approach of his nephew, Yankees DH/1B prospect Nick Johnson. In four minor league seasons, Johnson's OBP has ranged between a spended .398 and a jaw-dropping .525. The idea of the impatient slap hitter Bowa advising Johnson got this writer's eyes rolling.

On his own team, Bowa jettisoned Doug Glanville and his appalling .285 OBP from the leadofff spot late last season in favor of Jimmy Rollins's .323 OBP (though to be fair, Rollins was at .346 in the #1 spot, compared to .303 at #2). Still, Glanville remains undeterred by his lack of success. "I know it's important to get on base,'' says Glanville. "But there's also what you do when you get on. There are a lot of intangibles. It's not about walking; I know that. You have to be disciplined within the strike zone. It' s not about knowing the strike zone, it's about knowing your strike zone. Why take a pitch you can handle because you're trying to walk?'' For an Ivy League graduate, Glanville could use refresher course.

Exhibit C None other than Joe Torre seems to have caught this here fever goin' 'round. Early this spring, Derek Jeter and his .392 career OBP seemed slated--and perfectly so--for the leadoff spot to replace the departed Chuck Knoblauch. But Torre told reporters the other day that Alfonso Soriano might get the nod instead. "The way Soriano's swinging the bat right now, don't be surprised if he leads off," said Torre, admitting that he wasn't completely married to the idea: "That could change. I haven't totally made up my mind, but right now, it sure looks good with those two guys getting on base at the top of the order, with the guys we have in the middle."

As a rookie, Soriano showed flashes of brilliance from spring training through Game 7 of the World Series. Nonetheless, he demonstrated plate discipline which left much to be desired: he didn't draw his first walk until April 29, and finished with a .304 OBP and a strikeout to walk ratio of over 5 to 1. Compared to Jeter, Soriano gets on base roughly one fewer time per ten at bats--that's once every other game! While he's smoking the ball this spring to the tune of .310, he has a grand total of 2 walks in 84 at bats, for an OBP of .326. That simply won't cut it at the top of the Yankee lineup, not when Jeter, Bernie Williams, and Nick Johnson (if he lives up to his reputation) can provide OBPs in the neigborhood of .380-400.

Just what in the hell is going on here? I don't even pretend to know. Certainly, in the case of the Yankees, they are attempting to get more at bats for a hitter who may or may not be the next Vladimir Guerrero. But the lesson of the way the Yank offense's struggles mirrored Chuck Knoblauch's declining OBP should be fresh in Joe Torre's mind, and no amount of base stealing will make up for that. Soriano set a Yankee rookie record with 43 steals; unfortunately, he was thown out 14 times, nettting the Yanks 3.26 according to the Extrapolated Runs formula; Jeter's 27/30 running resulted in a net gain of 3.9 runs by comparison.

At least one team has it right. The Oakland A's, retooling their offense with their stud Jason Giambi's departure to the Yanks, have apparently settled on Jason's brother Jeremy as their leadoff hitter. Though Little G doesn't fit the classic profile of the speedy base-stealer we imagine when we think "leadoff hitter," he shares his brother's plate discipline--a .391 OBP, miles better than last year's leadoff, Johnny Damon (.324) or his most obvious replacement, Terrence Long (.335).

Oh well, the spring folly that this obviously is will make itself abundantly clear to Joe Torre in due time--I give it a few weeks, tops. I'm less optimistic about some of Torre's peers. Speed is a wonderful thing in a ballplayer, because it comes into play both offensively and defensively, but in this high-offense era, a stolen base simply isn't worth as much as it is when runs are scarce, and any manager with visions of stealing runs with an undisciplined hitter in the 1 spot is likely to be sorely disappointed.

A great deal of what any manager says to the press during spring training can be tossed out the window as soon as it hits the papers (most of the rest of it can be tossed by Opening Day). Lord knows, watching the skippers get their cliches in shape ("We're going to run more this year," "We're going to concentrate on the fundamentals," etc.) is half the fun of springtime. But sooner, rather than later, these theories will get played out on the ballfield, where the physics of baseball will take their hold. And the truth will be abundantly clear once again.