The Futility Infielder

Away with Jorge?

The New York Times reports that the Yankees may be willing to trade catcher Jorge Posada in an effort to lower payroll. Despite being the top-hitting catcher in the American League in 2002, Posada is potentially expendable. Of the five players the Yanks have signed to weighty long-term contracts (Jason Giambi, Derek Jeter, Mike Mussina and Bernie Williams are the others), Hip Hip Jorge is the only one without a no-trade clause. With a substantial payroll tax headed the Yanks' way (courtesy of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement), dealing Posada is one very obvious opportunity to cut costs.

Yankee GM Brian Cashman downplays the Posada trade rumors: "I'm certainly open to listening, but if someone wants to inquire about him, they'd better come with frankincense and myrrh and make me an offer I can't refuse. He's obviously one of the best at his position in the game. Is it realistic that we'd end up trading him? No. If he ever is moved, it would be at a steep price."

Posada brings many positives to the table; he's a switch-hitter with a high on-base percentage (.370 last season) and plenty of power (.468 slugging percentage, 40 doubles and 20 homers). He's also very durable, averaging 144 games a year over the last three seasons. But he's 31 years old, and like the other homegrown Yankees who man their up-the-middle positions, he's sub-par defensively. Though he cut back dramatically on the number of passed balls he allowed in 2002 (7, down from 18 in 2001), Posada led the league in errors and threw out only 29% of attempted steals (11th in the league).

Posada is entering the second year of a five-year, $51 million contract--an absurdly large deal to give an over-30 catcher. I wrote about Posada's contract back in February, noting that of the 10 most similar catchers (using Bill James' Similarity Scores), none had any kind of productive year beyond age 29. But those comps lacked the durability of Posada as well as his high walk rate (something Similarity Scores don't measure directly). It's also worth noting that Posada converted to catcher in the minors and thus may not have as much mileage on him as a typical 31-year old backstop.

Is now the right time to trade him? The Yankee organization is thin at the position. Chris Widger and Albert Castillo backed up Posada in 2002, combining for a meager .238 AVG/.252 OBP/.317 SLG in 107 plate appearances. Top catching prospect David Parrish (son of eight-time All-Star Lance Parrish, who caught 19 seasons in the bigs) isn't ready, hitting only .238/.328/.322 at AA Norwich. ESPN's John Sickels had this to say about him in May:

New York's first pick in the 2000 draft, Parrish was a successful college player at Michigan, compared to his father Lance both offensively and defensively. He didn't play well in '01, but shows signs of having turned things around this year, hitting .293 with solid strike zone judgment in the early going at Double-A Norwich. He doesn't have as much raw power as his father did, and it seems unlikely that he'll emerge as a star. But he has potentially solid skills across the board.

But Sickels left Parrish off of his most recent list of top catching prospects. So if the Yanks do trade Posada, they'd basically start from scratch in finding a full-time catcher.

While he's productive now, the day when Posada's contract becomes a burden to the Yankees will likely arrive. At that point his bat might still have some value, but given the occupation of first base and DH slots by Jason Giambi and Nick Johnson, Posada may have nowhere to play in pinstripes. I'd hate to see the Yanks trade Hip Hip Jorge, but Branch Rickey's sage advice about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late should weigh heavily on Cashman's mind.

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"You know as well as I do that Seasonal Affective Disorder is just a fancy name for the end of the baseball season. "--Brad Zellar, Twin Cities CityPages.com

Rest assured that season's end doesn't mean I'll be mothballing this site. Unlike some of my colleagues in the bloggerverse, I don't really give a damn about football, at least not enough to write home about it (you were expecting maybe the Futility Lineman?). It's baseball all year long at the Futility Infielder, and I'll crank up the hot stove to keep warm. In the tradition of my successful series of "Remaking the Yankees" articles last winter, I'll be taking a closer look at the team's roster needs and options in the next month or so. Plus I have plenty of catching up to do around here -- a minor facelift for the site, along with game reports, Wall of Fame inductions, book reviews, and the long-threatened Futility Infielder of the Year award.