The Futility Infielder

On Monday, the Rookie of the Year Awards were announced, and the winners were no big surprise to anybody who's kept up with online voting results such as the Internet Baseball Awards and the Baseball Primer Staff contributor picks. Both of those matched the rather decisive results of the baseball writers' votes.

As a quick perusal of the list of past winners will tell you, the Rookie of the Year Award isn't a particularly good predictor on which players will continue to develop into stars. Over the last 25 seasons (from 1978 on) and not including last year's Ichiro-mania, only three ROY winners have gone on to win an MVP award (Jeff Bagwell, Jose Canseco, and Cal Ripken Jr.), and three a Cy Young (Rick Sutcliffe, Fernando Valenzuela, and Dwight Gooden). The most recent winner to be inducted into the Hall of Fame was 1972 AL ROY Carlton Fisk, though 1977 AL winner Eddie Murray should join him soon, to be followed by Ripken and 1987 AL winner Mark McGwire in the next few years.

But plenty of washouts litter the list. Pat Listach, Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau, John Castino, Butch Metzger and Mark Fidrych were all done within five years of winning the award, and only the last two had the excuse of being pitchers. The colorful Charboneau didn't even manage 200 plate appearances over the rest of his career.

While not quite falling off the face of the earth like that bunch, one recent winner who seems to be traveling the road to oblivion is Ben Grieve, who won the AL award as an Oakland A in 1998 and looked for all the world to have a bright future. Here are his numbers for that rookie season and the ones since:

      AGE  HR  RBI   AVG  OBP   SLG   OPS  GIDP

1998  22  18   89  .288  .386  .458  844   18

1999  23  28   86  .265  .358  .481  840   17

2000  24  27  104  .279  .359  .487  845   32

2001  25  11   72  .264  .372  .387  760   13

2002  26  19   64  .251  .353  .432  784   15

Grieve put together three solid years in Oakland, but two statistical facets stuck out. One, he didn't seem to be improving his fine rookie season, merely maintaining that level of play. The ups and downs in batting average belied an extremely consistent OPS. However, his penchant for grounding into double plays set off alarm bells by his third season. David Levins of the A's-themed Elephants in Oakland blog writes about Grieve from the green-and-gold perspective:

With the A's Grieve was very patient at the plate and made decent contact. Skills that are rarely as well developed as young as Grieve was. Problems arouse when Grieve made contact and ground into so many double plays. Grieve failed to grasp the ability to foul off pitches rather than put them in play... Grieve killed so many rallies that the Chicago police were attempting to requisition him for riot patrol.

As Levens writes, Grieve's ascendence had been highly symbolic for the A's organization: "The A's pushed Grieve's star from the beginning because he was the beacon. The A's were announcing their awakening form the mid 1990's funk that saw their entire organization re-worked." But as his performance levelled off, Grieve apparently developed problems in the clubhouse and with A's management, earning a reputation as an uncoachable prima donna. "[W]ith Grieve in Oakland there were a slew of left-handed hitters offering help and suggestions," writes Levens. "Instead of being professional and admitting he needed to adjust he went with his ego."

Chock full of corner outfield prospects but in need of a leadoff hitter, A's GM Billy Beane packaged Grieve off to Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal which brought Johnny Damon, Cory Lidle, and Mark Ellis in return -- a deal which continued to pay dividends as Lidle contributed to playoff runs the last two years and Ellis emerged from a crowded pack to become the team's starting second baseman last season.

Meanwhile, Grieve's two years in Tampa Bay have been considerably less productive. His On Base Percentage has remained relatively consistent, but his Slugging Percentage dropped precipitously, as did his counting stats and his average. In what should, statistically speaking, be the prime of his career -- his Age 27 season -- he's entering his contract year. But his star has fallen considerably. Three things could happen this season: he could improve his play under a new manager (Lou Piniella), he could entice another team with his relatively low salary ($4 million) and potential productivity (Levens mentions the Mets and the Blue Jays, both featuring A's alums in prominent management positions), or he could continue his downward spiral in baseball's backwater. Ah, sweet mystery of youth.