The Futility Infielder

A Splash of Colon?

My eyes were too numb at the end of my previous piece to tack on an analysis of Expos pitcher Bartolo Colon, whose numbers I ran because he's been the subject of trade rumors here and there. Given that the New York Post has twice in the past week floated rumors about the Yanks acquiring Colon, he merits a further look.

Bartolo Colon is a big righthander who's gotten downright beefy; between his Baseball-Reference debut profile and his current ESPN one he's chunked up 50 pounds. He's also aged rapidly, one of dozens of Latin American players whose birthates were "adjusted" this past spring. Colon added two years, making him 30 in May.

Until last June, Colon was the ace of the Cleveland Indians. Off to a 10-4, 2.55 ERA start, he finally looked to be living up to his dazzling potential. But his trade signaled a sad recognition that after nearly a decade as the big dog in the AL Central, the Indians were no longer contenders. What a suprise for Colon, then, that being traded to a contender meant shipping out to Montreal. Though the team never gained enough momentum to threaten for a playofff spot, Colon continued to pitch well and pulled off the rare feat of winning 20 games split between two leagues.

The win total was his highest, and his ERA his best by 0.78 runs. But as good as that season was, his stats may present some signs for concern. For one thing, Colon's strikeout level was down considerably:

       IP    K    K/9   K/W

1998  204  158   6.97   2.00

1999  205  161   7.07   2.12

2000  188  212  10.15   2.16

2001  222  201   8.15   2.23

2002  233  149   5.75   2.13

car  1147  947   7.43   2.07

Whoa. His K rate deteriorated by over 40% in a two-year span, yet Colon not only kept winning, his performance with regards to preventing runs actually improved. What gives? If you've learned anything by my efforts over the past week or so, you know where I'm headed: DIPS and balls in play.

      BABIP

1998  .303

1999  .273

2000  .301

2001  .309

2002  .274 (.267 CLE, .281 MON)

car   .293

The vaunted Indians defense certainly wasn't doing him many favors the past few years, a trend which dramatically reversed in the first half of 2002 (so much for Roberto Alomar, eh?). Colon's Defense-Independent ERA (or dERA) overall was a respectable but not dazzling 3.92.

The biggest problem of Colon's own making (besides his waistline, perhaps) has been his walk rate. His ratio of strikeouts to walks has remained remarkably consistent over the years, even though his K rate has fluctuated dramatically. At his strikeout peak, he was walking 4.69 batters per 9 innings, which is Too Damn Many. Last season, he lowered that below 3 per 9 for the first time in his career, contributing to his positive results.

The Post reports that the Yanks have talked with the Expos about swapping Colon for DH/1B Nick Johnson and another player (outfielder Juan Rivera has been mentioned). The righthander is signed through next season; the Post reports that he'll make $8.25 million, while the Baseball Contracts Page lists his salary at $6 mil, a total which jibes with other reports. Given that the Post can't even be bothered to correct Colon's age (still reporting he's 27) and the fact that it is after all, THE POST, all of this should be taken with a shakerful of salt. New York's other tabloid, the Daily News, reports that Colon isn't even on the market, as the Expos have yet to receive a budget from the commissioner's office (recall that the Expos are owned by the other 29 teams). GM Omar Minaya believes he's got a contender on his hands and is in no hurry to conduct a fire sale.

Should the Yankees acquire Colon, it would almost certainly spell the end of Roger Clemens' tenure in pinstripes. The rotation would get younger and the short-term contract savings for the rotation would be significant. At his best, Colon's as unhittable as any pitcher in either league. But the costs would affect them in other ways. Dealing prospects Johnson and Rivera would deprive the Yankees of some affordable young talent, and in Johnson's case, perhaps a future star. It would increase the likelihood that they'd sign another hitter, as the DH slot would then be open. Trading Rivera leaves no internal candidates to replace corner outfield busts Rondell White or Raul Mondesi other than Shane Spencer, whose window of opportunity as a starter has long since closed.

Not to mention the fact that the warning signs are there on Colon. I didn't see him pitch last season, so I have no idea whether he's lost some gas off his high-90s fastball, but that dropping strikeout rate should be cause for genuine alarm. His conditioning doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. In short, this is a far cry from what Roger Clemens brings to the table, damn the cost and the age difference. This looks like anything but a super savings for the Yanks.

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I'd like to pass on my best Thanksgiving wishes to all of my readers and fellow bloggers. I have a lot to thankful for, starting with a wonderful family, great friends, a lovely girlfriend, good health, and a job I enjoy on most days. Sometime before the mashed potatoes hit the plate, I urge you to take a moment and count your blessings during this holiday season. Happy Turkey, everybody!