The Futility Infielder

I've been too busy, and perhaps too restrained, to celebrate the end of the Eric Karros era in Los Angeles. Karros, along with Mark Grudzielanek, was traded on December 5 to the Chicago Cubs for Todd Hundley. The fact that Hundley's been a disaster for four of the past five seasons notwithstanding, this is a long overdue move for the Dodgers. Karros's subpar production did as much to cost the Dodgers a shot at the playoffs in each of the past two seasons as all of their major pitching injuries -- Kevin Brown, Andy Ashby, Darren Dreifort, Kevin Brown, Kazuhiro Ishii, Kevin Brown, and that guy with a goatee and a $105 million contract who keeps getting hurt -- combined. Here are his stats for the past two seasons:

             PA    OBP    SLG    OPS    EQA   RARP

Karros 02   573   .323   .399   .722   .262    6

Karros 01   485   .303   .388   .691   .247   -5

Basically, Karros was about dead even with a replacement level first baseman, the kind of guy who you can acquire for a suitcase full of laundry or a swatchbook of shag carpet samples. He put up these stats while costing the Dodgers over $14 million in that timespan, playing hurt, being a team player, a veteran presence, a steady influence, and a complete waste of a lineup spot.

Karros spent twelve seasons with the Dodgers, twelve seasons in which the team won exactly zero playoff games. While it isn't fair to hold him personally responsible for the entirety of that goose egg, he's been far less productive than meets the eye. His supporters can point to the five 30 HR/100 RBI seasons put up in a tough hitter's park, but I'll point right back at that anemic career .325 OBP and .457 SLG. He basically had a nice five year run (1995-1999), and has been living off that for too damn long. His colorless mediocrity exemplifies why I lost interest in the Dodgers. True, the front office bears the responsibility for keeping him around and overpaying for his presence long past his prime, and Jim Tracy continued to write him in the lineup card right up to the bitter end (though the word from the L.A. Times is that both Karros and Grudz frequently clashed with Tracy).

Upon Karros' departure, Dodger fans rightly hoped that the team could use some of the money freed up by the trade to make a run at a big-name free-agent to play first base, such as Jeff Kent or Cliff Floyd. They never seriously pursued Kent, and ended up losing out to the Mets on Floyd, but on Friday, the Dodgers announced that they had reached an agreement with the Crime Dog, Fred McGriff. Terms were not disclosed, but the contract is believed to be only $3.75 million for one year.

Here are McGriff's stats over the past two seasons:

             PA    OBP    SLG    OPS    EQA   RARP

McGriff 02  595   .353   .505   .858   .295   29

McGriff 01  586   .386   .544   .930   .315   41

The Dog has been about 35 runs a season better with the stick than Karros, although several people over at Baseball Primer point out that McGriff's glovework is, to put it politely, lacking: "The Tribune Co. could have saved millions by foregoing McGriff's paychecks and just rolling wads of money slightly to his left or right." Ouch! Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs numbers (via their player cards) show Karros as gaining back about 60% of the difference over the past two years via his fielding:

             FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement)

Karros 02     32

Karros 01     21

McGriff 02     3

McGriff 01     3

I'd be lying if I said I had as good a grasp on BP's fielding stats as I do their batting and pitching stats, but those are their numbers, and it's true that fielding does count in this consideration. Adding it all up, over the past two years, McGriff is 76 runs above replacement level, Karros 54 -- a difference of about 2 wins in the standings.

Even though he's a 39-year-old stopgap solution for the Dodgers, and even though I've railed against him in the past, I think McGriff represents a significant upgrade for the boys in blue when it all shakes down. A .350 OBP/.500 SLG season at that low price, combined with the highlight film of the Crime Dog pursuing his 500th HR (he's at 478) will be a net positive, so long as Jim Tracy gives the Dog the day off against lefties; he managed only a .620 OPS against them last season (compared to .926 against righties). Good move for the Dodgers.

• • • • •

Speaking of the Dodgers, I've got a couple other related links to pass on. First up is Dodger Blues, a hilarious, vitriolic site which celebrates "the futility, disappointment, and humor of the Los Angeles Dodgers." The site starts with a clock which calculates the elapsed time since "the last great Dodger moment" (Kirk Gibson's home run), and offers features such as the Asshole of the Moment (currently Todd Hundley), the Crappy Brother (which points out how the Dodgers are suckers for the Chris Gwynns, Wilton Guerreros, and Mike Madduxes of the world), and a list of Greatest Dodger Moments which features the Don Sutton-Steve Garvey brawl, Carlos Perez's attack on a water cooler, GM Kevin Malone challenging a fan to fight, and various other meltdowns. If I weren't such an East Coast Yankee-rooting sellout, this is what my Dodger fandom might have become.

Next up is an assessment of Fernando Valenzuela's Hall of Fame worthiness. Baseball Primer's resident Dodger fan Eric Enders tackles the issue via the Keltner List, a 15-part examination of a player's qualifications and contributions. The Keltner List, developed by Bill James, asks relevant questions about each player such as as "Was he the best player in baseball at his position?" and "Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?" and "What impact did the player have on baseball history?" While Valenzuela's numbers come up short (173 wins doesn't take you to Cooperstown these days, nor should it), Enders does point out how many of the intangibles work in his favor, including this one:

Valenzuela had more impact on baseball history than any other player currently on the ballot. In 1982, when the average major league baseball game was attended by 20,766 fans, the games in which Fernando pitched drew an average of 43,312. That is as big an impact as any player has ever had on attendance, with the possible exception of Babe Ruth.

Fernando is one of my all-time favorites, and I truly wish he did have a spot waiting for him in Cooperstown. But his uniqueness and longevity (he's still pitching professionally in the Mexican Winter League at age 41) ensure that he'll be remembered in the annals of baseball as long as any Hall of Famer. Fernandomania lives on!