The Futility Infielder

I've been focusing on pitching and money thus far in this series. But for this article, I thought I'd jump ahead to third base, since the reports are that the Yankees are close to a deal, and I wanted to get my two cents in first.

Last winter, the Yankees acquired Robin Ventura from the Mets to replace third baseman Scott Brosius, who retired rather than test free agency. At the time, the Yanks hoped that Ventura could provide a one-year stopgap and that prospect and former University of Michigan star quarterback Drew Henson would be ready to take over the hot corner for 2003.

Plagued by injuries, Ventura had suffered two consecutive down seasons as a Met in 2000 and 2001, struggling monumentally at times. But even during those lean years, his reliable strike-zone judgement, decent power and solid defense yielded a value far beyond his .230ish batting averages. A value, in fact, not dissimilar to that which Brosius provided at his PEAK. Held against those already not-so-lofty standards, Ventura looked to be a good bet to improve with a change of scenery. Overexposed in the middle of the Mets' thin lineup, he was unable to provide the bulk of the power alongside Mike Piazza. But with the Yanks, Ventura would be further down in the order, behind guys who got on base AND provided power.

Ventura ended up being almost everything the Yankees could have dreamed. He got off to a hot start, racking up RBIs by the bushel and making the All-Star team for only the second time in his career. With 19 homers and 62 RBI at the break, he'd essentially equalled his power numbers for 2001 (21/61); in addition he was hitting .263 AVG/.367 OBP/.511 SLG/.867 OPS. He swooned a bit late in the season (only 8 HR and 31 RBI in the 2nd half), but made it through the season healthy, and hit impressively during the Yanks' brief playoff appearance. In addition, he was a class act all the way; Joe Torre and several of his teammates spoke of his positive effect in the clubhouse. His defense did appear shaky at times; he tied for the league lead in errors for third basemen, but other metrics, such as Davenport's Fielding Runs placed him as being just slightly off his more recent Gold Glove seasons, and better than some of his early ones (more on that subject another time).

All in all, a not-too-shabby season. Had Henson progressed to the level forecasted, the Yankees' plan would have been perfect. But as has been reported elsewhere at length, Henson struggled both during the regular season and in the Arizona Fall League. At AAA Columbus, Henson hit .240/.301/.435, with 18 HR and 55 RBI. Distressingly, he struck out 151 times in 471 ABs, and he also made 35 errors in the field. In Arizona, after several articles touted his sub-Mendoza Line average, he finished at .211/.304/.401 with 6 HR, 23 RBI, and 11 errors in 41 games. Gulp. Henson, who will be 23 in February, will need at least another season in AAA; according to his AFL manager Tommy John, he's about a thousand at-bats behind where a ballplayer his age should be.

What's fortunate for the Yankees is that $9.8 million of Henson's $17 million contract isn't due until 2005-2006, by which time he will likely have gotten the picture that a lucrative NFL career is passing him by. He may well have reconsidered his options by then; my guess is at this time next year, we will all (Drew included) know enough to see whether he should return to the huddle.

Ventura made $8.25 million last year, and with the Yanks in cost-cutting mode this offseason, they made it immediately clear they wouldn't be offering up that kind of scratch. At the same time, they once again have a hole at third base with their phenom "a year away." Besides Ventura, who are their options? Here's a brief rundown from ESPN's Top Fifty Free Agents list, with a few other names from the trade winds thrown in for good measure:

            Age   PA   HR   BI   OBP   SLG   OPS   EqA  RARP

Alfonzo     29   557   16   56  .391  .459  .851  .307  42.9

Lowell      29   665   24   92  .346  .471  .816  .285  36.8

Ventura     35   553   27   93  .368  .458  .826  .295  36.7

JHernandez  33   581   24   73  .356  .478  .834  .285  35.3

Bell        30   615   20   73  .333  .429  .762  .273  26.2

Randa       33   604   11   80  .341  .426  .768  .268  20.0

Mueller     32   417    7   38  .350  .393  .743  .270  15.3

Zeile       37   568   18   87  .353  .425  .778  .257  12.6

Tatis       28   424   15   55  .303  .399  .702  .244   3.4

Most of these abbreviations you should know. Age is as of 7/1/2003 (July 1 is the conventional statistical cutoff for determining player age in a given season). EqA and RARP are from Baseball Prospectus' methods of offense measurement; the former is like OPS boiled down to a batting average scale after adjusting for league offense levels and park effects (.260 is defined as average), while the latter is runs above a replacement-level third-baseman. I've ranked them according to RARP.

The non-free agents in this list are:
• Mike Lowell, once a Yankee prospect before being traded to the Florida Marlins. Signed for $3.7 million next season. Discussed by the Yanks early on, but the Marlins are apparently not looking to trade him.
• Joe Randa of the Kansas City Royals, signed for $4.5 million next season. The ballplayer closest to my exact date of birth, which means neither of us is ever going to see an eight-figure contract.
• Fernando Tatis of the Montreal Expos. Salary next season $6 million. Wallowing in Montreal for the past two seasons, Tatis has been discussed as ballast in various configurations of a Bartolo Colon trade.
• David Bell, formerly of the San Francisco Giants, not to mention the Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals. Bell signed with the Philadelphia Phillies last week to the tune of 4 years/$17 million. The Yanks made some noise about him, so it's a relief to see another team suckered by a career year featuring a .333 OBP.

The other free agents come with their warnings as well:
• The Mets' Edgardo Alfonzo has had back problems, though in three of the past four seasons he's hit above .300 with an .850 OPS. At his best, he's the pick of the litter here, but he's missed over 70 games the past two seasons. He's also widely rumored to be older than his listed age. Alfonzo can play second base as well as third, which could intrigue the Yanks as an option for moving Alfonso Soriano to the outfield down the road. But 'Zo's been seeking a 4-year contract, and the Yanks haven't been willing to commit. At the very least, he'll make about $7-8 million next season via arbitration, which looks too rich for the Yanks' taste.
• Bill Mueller came off of knee surgery last season and didn't contribute much after being a late-season re-acquisition by the Giants. Might have a job there now that Bell has departed.
• Todd Zeile racked up his numbers in the rareified air of Colorado, something EqA sees right through. His best days are clearly behind him.
• Jose Hernandez isn't really a third baseman anymore; he made the NL All-Star team at shortstop last season, and made headlines late in the year when Brewers manager Jerry Royster sat him to prevent him breaking the major league record for strikeouts in a season. The Yanks have never showed interest in him, but he would offer about the same production as Ventura at an even cheaper price. Not to mention the possibility of versatility down the road should they broach the subject of shifting Derek Jeter to another position. But it ain't gonna happen.

Ventura is certainly near the top of this list in terms of productivity. And in a convenient coincidence for the Yankees, he's apparently willing to come cheap; the word in the New York Times is that he's taking a physical preliminary to completing a $5 million deal. Ladies and gentlemen, it's not often that a player comes to a team, improves his performance and theirs, and is willing not only to take a 40% pay cut but to move out of the way when the time comes. It takes a class act to see the big picture on those terms: Robin Ventura, the consummate professional.

Once again, I find myself advocating what is hardly a radical move for the Yanks. But at a steep discount and with the flexibiltiy he provides their long-term picture, Ventura's signing is the closest thing to a no-brainer they'll get this offseason.