The Futility Infielder

The 2-year/$4.6 million contract which the Yankees offered Mike Stanton as a 15-minute-long ultimatum last weekend was also offered to two other free-agent lefty relievers. Stanton was so insulted by the Yanks' manner that he didn't even bother to reject it.

But one man's trash is another man's treasure. Chris Hammond, a soon-to-be 37-year-old lefty who pitched for the Braves last season, accepted the deal. On Monday, he signed what is now a $4.8 million contract which includes a $3 million club option or a $200,000 buyout for the third year. For Hammond, this is just another chapter in a fairy-tale comeback not too far removed from The Rookie. After spending parts of nine seasons in the big leagues, Hammond left baseball in 1998 after he had elbow surgery and his wife developed complications during pregnancy. He spent two years fishing on his 220-acre property in rural Alabama, then a year split between the Indians' and Braves' AAA teams. Last season he returned to the majors with a vengeance, allowing only eight unearned runs in 76 innings -- a microscopic 0.95 ERA , and only the third man in baseball history to post an ERA below 1.00 in over 70 innings. Amazingly, Hammond didn't allow an earned run after June 28, and gave up only one home run all season. Talk about fairy tales.

But Hammond comes to the Yankees with his share of questions: Can he continue to fool hitters as he did last year, with his high-80s fastball and changeup combo? Can he remain healthy? Can he adjust to a new league? Can he adjust to being the top lefty in the pen? Last year he had Mike Remlinger alongside him; as one advance scout pointed out: "They used him very well. There were two left-handers Bobby Cox could go to, and it wasn't like anybody got burned out. If one of them got up, he usually got into the game."

Okay, that's enough drama and human interest, it's time to roll up our sleeves and squish around in the numbers to see how Stanton, Mendoza, and Hammond measure up, and who some of the alternatives are to fill the Yanks' other bullpen openings. I've broken the following barrage of numbers into three clusters: 2002 Yankees, free-agent lefties, and free-agent righties. Once again, I'm listing the pitchers in order of their Defense-Independent ERA (dERA). Since relievers don't throw very many innings, their rates on hits per ball in play are all over the map, which can have a dramatic effect on their ERAs. This makes for gawk-worthy numbers like Hammond's 0.95 ERA (coupled to a .242 BABIP), but isn't so useful for projecting a pitcher's future performance. dERA tells you what his ERA would look like if and when his luck evened out.

	             	 G 	W	L	  IP	   ERA 	  K/9	 WHIP	 K/W	  HR/9	 BABIP dERA 	SV/OP	

Rivera	33	    45	 1	4 	46.0	 2.74	  8.02	 1.00	 3.73	 0.59	 .246	 2.97	 28/32	

Karsay	31     78 	6	4	 88.3	 3.26	  6.62	 1.32	 2.17	 0.71	 .291	 3.35	 12/16

Mendoza	31  	 62	 8	4 	91.7 	3.44	  5.99	 1.29	 3.81	 0.79	 .306	 3.50	  4/8

Stanton	36*	  79	 7	1	 78.0	 3.00	  5.08	 1.29  1.57	 0.46	 .278	 3.83	  6/9

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Hammond	37*	  63 	7	2	 76.0	 0.95	  7.46	 1.11	 2.03	 0.12	 .242	 2.77 	 0/2

Remlinger	37*	73	 7	3 	68.0	 1.99  	9.13	 1.12	 2.46	 0.40	 .259	 2.97  	0/5

GWhite	31*	   62 	6	1 	54.3	 2.98  	6.79	 1.09	 4.10	 0.50	 .282	 2.97 	 0/1

Guthrie	37*	  68	 5	3	 48.0	 2.44	  8.25	 1.13	 2.32	 0.56	 .260	 3.24	  1/2

Lloyd	36*	    66	 4	5 	57.0 	5.21  	5.84	 1.51	 1.95 	0.95	 .323	 4.22	  5/8

Heredia	28*	  53 	1	2	 52.3 	3.61  	5.33  1.47	 1.19	 0.86	 .274	 4.70  	0/2

Borbon	35*	   72	 4	4 	50.3 	5.36	  8.94	 1.55	 2.00 	1.79	 .293	 5.04 	 1/5

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Gordon	35 	   34	 1	3	 42.7	 3.37  10.12  1.36	 3.00 	0.63	 .345	 2.82	  0/0

Lopez	31 	    34	 1	4	 55.7	 4.37	  6.31	 1.51	 2.17	 0.16	 .353	 2.99	  0/0

Reed	37 	     64	 2	5	 67.0	 2.01	  6.72	 1.04	 3.57	 0.27	 .277	 3.02	  1/4

Urbina	29 	   61	 1	6	 60.0 	3.00  10.65	 1.07	 3.55	 1.20	 .252	 3.33 	40/46

RWhite	34 	   61	 5	7	 62.7	 4.31	  5.89	 1.32	 1.95	 0.57	 .294	 3.49 	 0/1

Hernandez 38  53 	1	3	 52.0	 4.33	  6.75	 1.42	 3.25	 1.04	 .335	 3.71 	26/33

Acevedo	33 	  65	 1	5 	74.7 	2.65  	5.18	 1.22	 1.87	 0.48	 .268	 3.90	 28/35

Adams	30 	    46	 7	9	136.7	 4.35	  6.32	 1.39	 1.66	 0.59	 .290	 3.91	  0/1

Fetters	38  	 65	 3	3 	55.0	 4.09  	8.67	 1.64	 1.43	 0.65	 .316	 4.07	  0/2

Jackson	38 	  58	 2	3	 55.0	 3.27	  4.75	 1.31	 2.23	 0.82	 .298	 4.22	  0/2

Timlin	37 	   72	 4	6	 96.7	 2.98	  4.66	 0.92	 3.57	 1.40	 .205	 4.71	  0/4

Veres	36 	    71 	5	8	 82.7	 3.48	  7.40	 1.28 	1.74	 1.31	 .244	 4.76	  4/8

The number after each pitcher is his 2003 age (as of July 1); the asterisk is the common shorthand for lefties (who are ageless anyway). You probably won't recognize all the names in the second and third groupings; this motley assortment includes several old war-horses, along with guys who have toiled for years in relative anonymity. So here they are on a first-name basis: Chris Hammond (who I keep calling Darrell, as in Saturday Night Live's master impersonator), Mike Remlinger, Gabe White, Mark Guthrie (the third pitcher who the Yanks offered their 15-minute window), Graeme Lloyd (the big dingo who spent 1996-98 with the Yanks), Felix Heredia, and Pedro Borbon (who I swear I've been watching since I was eight years old), Tom "Flash" Gordon, Albie Lopez, Steve Reed, Ugueth Urbina, Rick White, Roberto Hernandez, Juan Acevedo, Terry Adams, Mike Fetters, Mike Jackson (not the entertainer), Mike Timlin (where's Mike Trombley when you need him?), and Dave Veres. Remilinger is no longer on the market, having signed with the Cubs, Adams was offered arbitration by Philadelphia, and Gabe White isn't actually a free-agent; he was discussed last month in a potential trade with the Cincinnati Reds for Sterling Hitchcock.

Turning our attention to the lefties first, Hammond's season looks considerably more realistic through the lens of dERA, though still pretty impressive. Based on the higher strikeout rate and the sheer level of experience, I'd rather have Remlinger at that cost, or even Stanton for that matter. Guthrie looks pretty good too, though that's the first time since 1998 that he's posted an ERA below 4.47, and it's not a lot of innings. Stanton's season doesn't look quite so impressive taken with these others; that low K rate will eat your dERA alive. Gabe White is intriguing; relatively young, well balanced across the board (now that he's out of Colorado), with great control. If the Yankees have any way of resurrecting a deal which involves Hitchcock going and White coming, they would be wise to consider it, even if it means giving up a prospect as well.

Over to the righties, where the picture's more inconclusive. We've got some closers looking for work (Urbina, Acevedo, Hernandez), some failed starters (Lopez, Adams), some guys coming off of injury (Gordon), and some guys that never seem to go away (the Mikes). The Yanks tried to get Urbina in 2001 but rejected him due to concerns about his elbow; he clearly showed he could pitch (though listen to a Red Sox fan and he'll bitch about him) but he won't come cheap. Gordon hasn't thrown more than 45 innings in a season since 1998; in the meantime he's undergone Tommy John surgery and last year missed half a season with a torn shoulder muscle. If he's healthy, he could command closer money as well, and at the very least, he'll get above $3 million per season, territory the Yanks clearly don't want to go.

One name which stands out on the list is that of Steve Reed, who's got a nasty sidearm delivery which throws batters off. Reed's control is excellent, he strikes people out with a wicked slider, and doesn't yield many homers. He excels with runners on base -- last year he allowed a .443 OPS in 112 AB with runners on (over 3 seasons it's still a measly .604 OPS in 207 AB). Coming out of the Yankee pen, he'd give hitters a much different look than any other pitcher. Reed is well-travelled, having pitched for four teams over the past two seasons; ironically, he was traded along with Karsay from Cleveland to Atlanta in the John Rocker deal (no, I'm not going to run that raging asshole's numbers even though he's looking for work; he sure as hell ain't find it in da Bronx). Reed should come pretty cheap; he made "only" $500,000 last year. He would be a bargain at twice the price; the Yanks should jump at the chance to sign him.

Another one who might spark some interest is Adams, who split last season between the rotation and the bullpen, is somewhat intriguting as a direct analogue to Mendoza (his groundball-to-flyball ratio is even more extreme, 2.7-to-1). Like Mendoza, Adams may be better suited to the bullpen (he posted a 2.38 ERA there in 27 appearances) even though he'd prefer to start. He made $2.7 million last season and looks to be headed in that direction with Philadelphia, so he's probably out of the question one way or another.

Other options exist besides the current free-agents, of course. As Peter Gammons reports, there are plenty of players who will become free-agents on non-tender day, December 20. This means that if their current teams don't offer them contracts, they'll be free agents as well, and probably considerably cheaper. Recognizable pitchers who Gammons lists include Rolando Arrojo, Antonio (Six-Finger) Alfonseca, and John Halama, though more are sure to follow.

The Yankees, in this season of belt-tightening, might do well to find a reliever from within their organization. Last year, Adrian Hernandez, the Cuban defector who's such an El Duque protege that he's called "El Duquecito," just missed making the team out of spring training. He was sent down to Columbus to pitch rather than languish at the back of the bullpen, and was bombed in the only two appearances he made with the Yanks when called up. At first glance, his record in AAA may not look too pretty (6-7, 5.25 ERA in 20 starts), but a closer read reveals a few things. His strikeout rate was almost exactly 1 per inning (8.95 per 9), his control was decent (2.42 K/W), although those walks do add up (3.70 per 9), his homer rate adequate (0.73 per 9). He allowed a steep .334 BABIP, but let's remember, this was for a team that finished 24 games below .500, a team featured Drew Henson making 35 errors at third base and Erick Almonte making another 18 in 63 games at shortstop. Defense was not those kids' forte. El Duquecito also pitched well in the Arizona Fall League (2.38 ERA in 22 2/3 innings, with 28 strikeouts and 10 walks). He's 28 years old and signed for $1 million next season. The time is now to give him a shot at the back of the pen to see if the Yanks' relatively meager investment ($4 mil over 4 years) can pay off. He may yet turn out to be a better pitcher than Mendoza.

Another name from within the Yankee organization that's been mentioned is that of Jason Anderson. The 23-year-old righty Anderson went all the way from high-A Tampa to AAA Columbus in only his second professional season, and amassed an impressive record along the way. In 54 games (all but three in relief), he went 10-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 10 saves. More importantly, he struck out men (8.26 per 9), showed great control (3.73 K/W), and had a decent homer rate (0.70 per 9), and he did it all on a reasonable .284 BABIP. The website Top Prospect Alert has him tagged as a sleeper reliever for next season, reporting that he's got a fastball in the 95-96 range, plus a slider which "is still inconsistent, but it has the makings of a pitch that will be devastating to right-handed hitters." The site compares him to a Felix Rodriguez and Guillermo Mota, and if that's the case, he at least deserves a look.

A more familiar name to Yankee fans and foes who may figure in their bullpen plans is lefty Randy Choate. Choate's spent parts of the past three seasons riding the Columbus shuttle; he was up and (mostly) down four times in 2002 alone. At the major-league level, Choate's always struggled with his control (1.28 K/W ratio), though his strikeout rate is respectable (6.57 K/9). He was a mess last season, walking 15 in 22.1 innings and posting a 6.04 ERA. He's hell on lefties, but his control deserts him against righties (career stats below):

         AB  BB   K   OPS

Right  179  31  19  .758

Left   137  19  45  .537

The Yanks haven't given up on him yet. He sparkled in Columbus (1.72 ERA and 32 K in 36.2 innings), and reportedly impressed the Yankee brass by improving the control of his slider. If he can find the plate in spring training, bet on him to be the second lefty in the pen.

Boiling it all down, the Yanks are going to have to be both creative and lucky if they want to match the caliber of their recent bullpens (2001 excepted; you can keep that one). They can still claim to have one of the best closers in the game in Mariano Rivera. With his winter break started a bit early this year, the Yanks can hope that the extra rest helps his body heal, and that his availability won't be restricted. Steve Karsay is an excellent setup man who also gives the team some insurance as a closer. Chris Hammond has some very big shoes to fill, and some very big questions to answer. Choate figures to work his way back into the situational lefty role, leaving open the identity of what would presumably be another righty. By my count, the Yanks have a couple of decent though inexperienced candidates in house, and could get an experienced and reasonably good one for $1-2 million; my vote is for Steve Reed.

How much money is this bullpen actually going to save the Yankees? Here are three configurations of the pen, assuming six relievers apiece (one on the DL or in Columbus), with salaries in millions of dollars and bonuses included:

     2002              2003-not            2003-?

Rivera     9.5     Rivera   10.5     Rivera   10.5  

Karsay     7.0     Karsay    4.0     Karsay    4.0 

Stanton    2.6     Stanton   3.5     Hammond   2.3 

Mendoza    2.6     Mendoza   3.0     ?Reed?    1.0 

Weaver     4.1     Hitchock  6.0     Choate    0.3

Hitchcock  5.0     AHerndz   1.0     AHerndz   1.0

AHerndz    1.0

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         $31.8m            $28.0m             $19.1m

The one big assumption here is that the Yanks will be able to clear Sterling Hitchock's salary, which is right now looking pretty much like a fantasy. If they're stuck with it, the Yanks will still save themselves about $7 million on the bullpen alone, though most of that savings is by getting past Karsay's signing bonus and counting Weaver as a starter. With the best of luck, the Yanks may find themselves able to save about $12.6 million, a significant amount of money. Whether it will come back to cost them in other ways in 2003 remains to be seen.