The Futility Infielder

The Yankees, like everybody else, spent the better part of this past weekend's winter meetings in Nashville playing Let's Make a Deal with Montreal Expos GM Omar Minaya. Charged by the commissioner's office with decreasing the Expos payroll by about $15 million, Minaya figures to unload at least one of his talented studs such as outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, second baseman Jose Vidro, or pitchers Bartolo Colón and Javier Vazquez. Everybody and their mother (except my own) seems to have just the plan to help Minaya do so, often with their own beat team's interests at heart. Pinstriped pundits, Mets scribes, Sox sleuths, everybody wants in, with sometimes terrifying results ("Hard-working Epstein Has a Nose for Colon" reads one unforgettable headline).

Though it's tantalizing to envision Vlad the Impaler wearing pinstripes and patrolling rightfield in the House That Ruth Built, the Yanks' interest in this dubious sell-off gravitates around the two starting pitchers, Colón and Vazquez. Initally, their focus had been primarily in the former, a beefy 29-year old righthander whose merits I discussed a couple of weeks ago. But the latter has been drawing some favorable attention too. Vazquez is 26, in better shape, and -- a key for the Yanks -- less expensive than Colón. While the former will make $8.25 million and then become a free agent, the latter will get a raise from his $4.725 million salary via arbitration.

Here's a quick comparison of the two Expo starters in 2002:

         W  L   IP     ERA  K/9   WHIP  K/W   HR/9  BABIP  dERA

Colon	  20	 8	 233.1 	2.93	 5.75	 1.24	 2.13	 0.77	 .274	  3.92

Vazquez	10	13	 230.2	 3.90	 6.98	 1.27	 3.65	 1.09	 .302	  3.78

Superficially, Colón looks like the better pitcher, with that nice round 20-win season and an ERA a run lower. But as I pointed out before, the rotund one's strikeout rate fell off the table in 2002 (down 2.4 per 9 from his previous season average), and he was fairly lucky on balls in play as well. Vazquez , though he's more prone to the gopher ball, has a markedly higher strikeout rate, and much better control. Much of the difference in their ERAs comes on balls in play; the Expos defense helped Colón (.281 for the Canadian bacon slice of his season) much more than Vazquez at .302. The difference comes out in the wash of their Defense Independent ERAs, with Vazquez holding a slight edge.

Minaya knows he's got hot commodities on his hands, so he's been working to drive the price on them even higher; reports are that he's playing the Yanks' interest against that of the Red Sox. The asking price for Colón is now absurdly high for the Yanks: Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, Orlando Hernandez AND the money to cover El Duque's salary next season (perhaps $5 million). The toll from the Sox is third baseman Shea Hillenbrand and lefty Casey Fossum for Colon and third baseman Fernando Tatis, a poison pill with his $6.25 million salary, reduced productivity, and reportedly poor attitude.

Even if the Yanks were to give in to the Expos demands, El Duque's salary would still count against Brian Cashman's payroll. Effectively, they'd be paying perhaps $13 million for Colon's spot in the rotation, hardly a bargain, and they'd be giving up two of their least expensive and most promising young hitters. If they can get Vazquez at a cheaper price, the deal might be worth pursuing; otherwise, this is too rich for the Yankees' blood.

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The most interesting deal which went down in Nashville was a four-way trade in which Baseball Primer posterboy (or was it Baseball Prospectus centerfold?) Erubiel Durazo was finally sprung from the shackles of his oppressors in the Arizona desert. Statheads have taken "Free Erubiel Durazo!" as their rallying cry ever since the Mexico native posted a .403 average at Double-A El Paso and .407 at Triple-A Tucson in 1999, his first year in the D-backs chain. Durazo has posted a career .918 OPS over the past four seasons. But, owing to injuries and the density of Bob Brenly's skull, he'd managed only 900 plate appearances over that span. Eager to see the lefty slugger flourish in a more favorable environment, the geeks have pined for the day when a sabermetrically-inclined GM could rescue him before he passed his prime.

With this weekend's trade, the 28-year old will finally get his shot, and in the friendliest home for his type: Billy Beane's Oakland A's. Beane admitted that acquiring Durazo had become something of a quest: "This has been a three-year odyssey for me. This is probably the most aggressively I've ever pursued a player. I think I might have come pretty close to breaking the tampering rules on this one." Elsewhere, he even referred to Durazo as his Holy Grail, apparently with apologies to Monty Python.

The knocks against Durazo are his injuries (about which Beane even rationalized, "If he didn't spend that time on the DL, we probably never would have gotten him because he would have hit 45 home runs."), his defense (including an alleged refusal to play rightfield during last year's playoffs), and his trouble with lefties (career .577 OPS in about 150 PA). But the A's will gladly find a spot for him, making him their full-time DH and only occasional first baseman, and probably find him a platoon partner as well. But here's his career line against righties, about a season's worth of PAs: .293 AVG, 42 HR, 133 RBI, .403 OBP/.563 SLG/.966 OPS. Yeah, I could find a spot in my lineup for that guy, too.