The Futility Infielder

Among the seven outfielders on the BBWAA ballot are four heavy hitters who were almost exact contemporaries: Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, and Jim Rice. Aiming straight for the chart:

            H   HR   RBI  SB    AVG   OPB   SLG  AS  MVP  GG  HOFS   HOFM   WS  Top 5

Dawson  2774  438  1591  314  .279  .323  .482   8   1   8   43.7  117.5  340   132

Parker  2712  339  1493  154  .290  .339  .471   7   1   3   41.1  125.5  327   150  

Murphy  2111  398  1266  161  .265  .346  .469   7   2   5   34.3  115.5  294   150 

Rice    2452  382  1451   58  .298  .352  .502   7   1   0   42.9  147.0  282   127

No slouches here. Murphy was a Gold-Glove centerfielder who was shifted to rightfield when he got older. Ditto for Dawson, except he kept winning Gold Gloves after the shift. Parker was a Gold Glove rightfielder who became a DH, Rice a mediocre leftfielder who became a DH. Murphy and Rice petered out early; Rice at 36, Murph at 37. Parker had some drug problems, but had a mid-career rebound which gives his candidacy some extra muscle.

Dawson's MVP award in 1987 with the last-place Cubs is one of the more dubious of all-time, but he was also a two-time runner-up, including once to Murphy, who got big help from his park that year. On the road in '83, Dawson went .322/.351/.615 while Murphy went .266/.356/.503. In general, Murphy was helped greatly by his home parks (.284/.374/.511 with 206 HR at home vs. .251/.329/.445 with 170 on the road; the splits from Retrosheet are incomplete but not far off). Rice got big help from Fenway (.323/.379/.539 with 156 HR at home vs. .271/.327/.456 with 127 HR on the road). Parker was helped a bit (.297/.346/.495 with 134 HRs at home, vs. .276/.327/.445 and 127 HRs on the road). Dawson is pretty much even (.278/.331/.477 with 147 HR at home vs. .288/.327/.508 and 180 HR on the road). We're missing bigger portions of Parker, Rice, and Dawson's splits than the Murphy; the biggest gap is two years of Dawson at Wrigley Field.

Each of these guys has his knocks. Rice has the short career, the least defensive value, and the most park help. Murphy has the short career and some serious park help. Dawson has the low OBP. Parker's on the lower end defensively and he's got character issues (though he was seen as an asset during his late-career days in Oakland). None of them have very good postseason resumes, and Parker's the only one with a ring.

Here's another look, via their Baseball Prospectus numbers:

           G   EQA   BRAR  FRAR  RAR  RAR/162             WARP3

Dawson  2627   .284  653   321   974   60.1 (40.3/19.8)   106.1

Parker  2466   .286  627   224   851   55.9 (41.2/14.7)    88.0

Murphy  2180   .289  563   287   850   63.2 (41.8/21.3)    90.2

Rice    2089   .300  703   226   929   72.0 (54.5/17.5)    92.6

This isn't clear-cut by any stretch. My first impulse would be to rule out the guys with shorter careers and heavy park effects -- Rice and Murphy. Except that Rice's hitting really was a hell of a lot better than the other three, even once the park effects are stripped away. In order of career OPS+, they are: Rice 128, Parker and Murphy 121, Dawson 119. You could spin these around any which way and still, there's not much difference other than Rice coming out on top.

Short of running the BPro numbers for all the Hall of Fame outfielders to see where these guys slot in -- something I'm not inclined to do at this late juncture in part because I wasn't especially satisfied with the payoff in doing so for other positions -- I'm left to my gut call on each of these four:

• The hole the middle of Parker's career (1980-1984), largely of his own making, kept him from 3000 hits, probably 400 HRs as well, and bona fide Hall of Fame status. His defensive value was just about gone by the time he returned to productive playing. Out.

• Murphy's rapid decline is much more mystifying, but just as troubling. His park splits are disconcerting, as well. Out.

• Rice declined early as well, but he was a head above the others as a hitter, and he had a 12-season string that's almost without blemish. In.

• Dawson's longer career gives him a boost as well. In.

So this time around, without further evidence I'm going to pull the lever for the Hawk and Jim Ed, and let the Cobra and the Murph wait for another day. Next year, when all four will likely still be on the ballot, we'll do it again with whatever's stats are the state of the art at the time.

Oh, there are three other oufielders on the ballot as well: Brett Butler, Vince Coleman, and Danny Tartabull. You don't need me to tell you that neither Coleman nor Tartabull were HOFers, because their numbers do it for them:

             H    HR   RBI  SB    AVG   OPB   SLG  AS  MVP  GG  HOFS   HOFM   WS  Top 5

Butler     2375   54   578  558  .290  .377  .376   1   0   0   36.0   50.5  295   124

Coleman    1425   28   346  752  .264  .324  .345   2   0   0   12.9   27.0  138    87  

Tartabull  1366  262   925   37  .273  .368  .496   1   0   0   25.1   31.0  188    99

Butler doesn't look too great at first, but his Prospectus numbers open my eyes a bit: .286 EQA, 570 BRAR, 434 FRAR and 108.3 WARP3. Despite the fact that he was nowhere near the heavy hitter that the previous foursome was, his ability to get on base and good defense in centerfield (something Win Shares backs up as well) bump up his value to equal with theirs. But it troubles me that he was so unheralded in his time, no Gold Gloves and only one All-Star appearance. With more time to study the issue, and more comfort with BP's defensive metrics, I might warm to his case enough to consider voting for him, but I'm going to pass this time around. This leaves eight men on my ballot: Blyleven, Carter, Dawson, John, Murray, Rice, Sandberg, and Trammell.