The Futility Infielder

Why is this man smiling? Because Opening Day is finally here. After a winter of my discontent, and some seriously nasty weather, the arrival of the baseball season feels completely refreshing. Perhaps especially so, since this season carries no imminent threat of labor strife. There'll be no strikes, just balls flying every which way for the next seven months.

Alas, all is not right with the world. This country's current war on Iraq, an 800-lb gorilla (or is that guerilla?) of bad news, does dampen my enthusiasm a bit. As does the forced patriotism which apparently mandates crowds chanting "U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!" after singing "God Bless America" during every seventh-inning stretch. While I don't intend to make this column a soapbox about my views on the war, suffice it to say that I look forward to the day when ballpark displays of zeal are connected merely to the two teams on the playing field.

So without further ado, and as my obligations as a Writer of Stuff dictate, I'll offer some predictions for the season. While I didn't do so hot last season (that Yanks-Astros World Series never materialized), rest assured that the past year has increased my baseball wisdom sufficiently that desperate gamblers in Vegas are breathlessly awaiting the following:

AL East: Yanks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays. Last year I figured the Rays might surpass the Orioles; this year, despite the presence of Lou Piniella, I harbor no such illusions. So these folks will finish in exactly the same order they have for the past five seasons, with the Sox giving the Yanks a better chase than recent years, falling short but stealing the Wild Card spot.
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Tigers. Despite their new Colon, the Sox won't catch the Twins, who have plenty of pitching and hitting depth to carry them. Both will have plenty of fun at the expense of the division's pretenders.
AL West: A's, Angels, Mariners, Rangers. The A's will continue their rise, the defending champion Angels will discover that "career year" means it only happens once, and the Mariners will keep fading. The Rangers should show some improvement, but nobody will give a Buck.

NL East: Phillies, Braves, Expos, Mets, Marlins. The Braves rotation which dominated the NL East has been scattered, not quite to the four winds but to a couple of the other teams within the division. Glavine won't be a great loss for them (or a great help for the Mets), but Millwood --with some help from Jim Thome -- will be the difference. The Mets will surprise nobody except Steve Phillips when they continue to look like last year's Mets.
NL Central: Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Brewers. I should be done predicting anything for the Astros, but the Cards have too many injury questions for me to pick them here. Dusty Baker's magic won't withstand the harsh light of day, but their young pitchers will keep them competitive.
NL West: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres. Randy Johnson looks like he could carry the Diamondbacks until he's 50. Jim Tracy has made his name managing his way around an injured pitching staff; with good health he can finally take the Dodgers to the postseason. Even if Bonds is Bonds, Felipe Alou will have a rough time filling Dusty Baker's shoes.

Wild Cards: Red Sox, Dodgers
World Series: A's over Phillies. Pain me though it might, I'm pegging this to be the year the A's get over the hump. Just like every other monkey with a weblog, probably.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Lance Berkman

AL Cy Young: Last year I said "Tim Hudson. Or Mark Mulder. Or maybe Barry Zito." That prediction served me well, so I'm sticking with it.
NL Cy Young: Randy Johnson

AL "Rookie" of the Year: Hideki Matsui. You were expecting maybe Rocco Baldelli?
NL Rookie of the Year: Marlon Byrd

First Manager Fired: Lloyd McClendon. With so much of last year's deadwood swept out by slow starts and slow finishes, most of the easy targets are gone. The Orioles should put Mike Hargrove out of his misery, but I don't think he'll be so lucky.
First Manager Lynched: Larry Bowa, which is why the Phillies will get to the World Series.

World Series (Wishful Thinking Department): The last time I hunkered down to root for the Dodgers at the outset of a season, Billy Ashley was still a prospect. Though they fell short last season, the Dodgers stirred enough old loyalties for me to start caring again. And though I've spent the better part of the past seven years cheering the home team here in NYC, a Dodger-Yankee matchup wouldn't give me a moment's hesitation in choosing sides. So for the first time since I was a kid, I'll dare to dream of the continuation of the greatest World Series rivalry.