The Futility Infielder

A week ago, I sat down to write a lengthy evaluation of the Yankees as they approached the quarter mark of their season. At the time, the team had just lost its second series of the season, both to the Oakland A's. But aside from a leaky bullpen, the Yanks appeared genuinely solid, if not invincible, and the highly-anticipated return of Derek Jeter looked to solidify their standing.

A week later, things look less rosy for the Yanks. The team is now in the throes of a 4-9 skid which has seen them lose three consecutive series to AL West teams. A few offensive outbursts have disguised a sputtering offense, while Joe Torre has revealed just how little he trusts his bullpen by leaving his starters to sink on their own several times. Jeter returned to the lineup and quickly locked in at the plate, but his replacement in the #2 spot in the order, Nick Johnson, was lost for 4-6 weeks with a broken bone in his hand. The team got more bad news about Steve Karsay, who is likely done for the year without appearing in a game, and Juan Acevedo continues to pitch like a man better suited to going before a firing squad. It's been a rough week in the Bronx.

But with the effects of the team's torrid 18-3 start largely neutralized, now is a better time for a clear-eyed assessment of the 2003 Yankees. In this first installment, we'll start with the basics and cover the offense. All statistics and records in this piece are through Saturday's game.

The Yanks are 27-15, holding a slim one-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. With the recent slide, they've squandered their claim to the game's best winning percentage. Through Saturday, they're now in a 3-way tie for the second-best record in baseball, 2.5 games behind the surprisingly resilient Atlanta Braves. A .643 clip projects to 104 victories, but we all know the Yankees hunt even bigger game(s) than that.

The Yanks have scored 250 runs, an excellent 5.95 a game, third-best in the majors (the Blue Jays lead at 6.02, followed by the Red Sox at 6.00). They've allowed 175 runs, an average of 4.17 per game, seventh-best in the majors (the Dodgers lead at 3.09, followed by the A's at 3.45). Their 3.82 ERA is also seventh. The Yankees' expected winning percentage based on their runs scored and allowed (the simple Pythagorean method) is .671, best in baseball and a full game better than their actual winning percentage. They're 5-3 in one-run games, which confirms that luck isn't a big part of their record. Despite the past week's indignities, the numbers still say they're a very good team.

Here are some basic statistics for the Yankee hitters as of Saturday. Before I begin my player-by-player evaluation, it is worth noting that these stats are still at the mercy of one very good or bad week which can drastically color the perception of a player's season thus far.

NAME        HR  BI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS

J. Posada   10  31 .244 .351 .558 .909

J. Flaherty  0   2 .258 .303 .323 .626



J. Giambi    8  23 .207 .335 .380 .715

N. Johnson   5  18 .308 .455 .517 .971



A. Soriano  12  32 .306 .378 .554 .932



D. Jeter     0   1 .391 .440 .522 .962

E. Almonte   1  11 .272 .337 .370 .706

E. Wilson    1   3 .189 .211 .324 .535



R. Ventura   7  20 .296 .352 .513 .865

T. Zeile     4  12 .190 .278 .380 .658



H. Matsui    3  29 .269 .317 .383 .700

B. Williams  7  30 .314 .427 .503 .930

R. Mondesi   8  23 .325 .403 .591 .994

B. Trammell  0   4 .296 .367 .444 .811

Jorge Posada (C): With Ivan Rodriguez now sleeping with the Fish in the NL, Posada is unquestionably the top-hitting catcher in the AL. He's off to a strong start and leads all major-league catchers in homers and RBI, and he's third in OPS behind Mike Piazza and MIke Lieberthal, with a homer and RBI production that nearly equals those two combined (10/31 compared to 11/33). Offensively, a few of his statistics might raise an eyebrow. He's walking only once per 9.4 plate appearances, considerably less frequent than his career rate (1 per 7.6 PA). He's also seeing fewer pitches, 3.62 per PA compared to 3.93 for his career. And he's hitting fewer ground balls and many more fly balls than he usually does (0.74 grounders per fly, compared to 1.2 G/F for his career). These anomalies are all bucking trends which have been very consistent since Posada became a regular in 1998; taken together they suggest that he may be falling into some bad habits. Worth keeping an eye on.

Where Posada's shown improvement is in his defense. While he still leads the league in passed balls, he's committed only one error thus far (compared to 12 last year). Most impressively, he's recovered from the shoulder troubles which sapped his arm strength the past two seasons, throwing out 11 of 27 baserunners (41%) after catching only 29% last season.

John Flaherty (C): Though Joe Torre once again proved his ability to choose the lesser of any two backup catchers if given the chance (yes, Joe, Tom Pagnozzi is still retired), he's shown a commitment to resting Posada more regularly; Jorge's caught in 81% of Yankee games, down from 85% last season. Flaherty won't make anybody forget Joe Girardi, though. but he won't have anybody pining for Chris Turner either. Even in only 26 ABs, he's only one point off of his career OPS (669). The Yanks have lost his last four starts, though. For this they whacked Chris Widger?

Jason Giambi (DH-1B): If there's one area besides the bullpen that the Yanks could use major improvement, it's Giambi's bat. His numbers are uncharacteristically low (one double? one measly, stinkin' double?), and though he's still drawing his walks, his K/W ratio is definitely declining (1.5 strikeouts per walk this season, compared to 1.0 last year and 0.6 the season before). B-Pro's Will Carroll says that Giambi's admitted his knee's hurting: "The official word is patellar tendinitis, but Giambi is being told it's non-surgical at this point. Even so, like J.D. Drew last season, Giambi would likely be able to play through the season regardless." Add to that an eye infection that's been dogging him for a couple of weeks and which caused him to miss last weekend's games against the A's, and you've got all the makings for a frustrating seven weeks. It certainly doesn't help with G telling the world, "I'm okay on fastballs, because that's what I see. But anybody with any good off-speed pitches is going to be able to handle me."

Giambi's been spending more time at DH this season than he did last season, ostensibly because Joe Torre desired to protect his slugger from cold-weather hamstring and back difficulties while jump-starting Nick Johnson. Like most regulars, Giambi dislikes DHing, and his productivity has traditionally suffered in the slot (200 OPS points lower from 2000-2002). But he's drastically reversed this trend this season, and now that his injury has been revealed, it make some sense. Here's a chart showing Giambi and Johnson's OPS breakdowns by position, along with the percentage of a player's PAs in that slot:

2002       1B          DH

Giambi   1.135 (58%)  .886 (42%)

Johnson   .691 (53%)  .837 (44%)



2003       1B          DH

Giambi    .595 (42%)  .823 (56%)

Johnson  1.014 (68%)  .868 (31%)

While it would seem appropriate to write Giambi a one-way ticket to DH for at least the rest of the season, Johnson's injury (a stress fracture in the third metacarpal of his right hand, for those scoring at home) nixes that plan. It's worth noting that Big G's defensive stats this season are actually better than Johnson's. Getting 37% of the team's playing time at first base, he's yet to make an error (Johnson has one) and his Zone Rating is .957 compared to Johnson's .795. The obvious explanation for his puzzling stats as a first baseman? He's channeling J.T. Snow, of course.

Nick Johnson (1B-DH): The early part of this season showed exactly why Brian Cashman fended off a thousand trades designed to pry Johnson from the Yanks: he can flat-out hit. He can walk, too; Johnson recently tied the club record with a base on balls in 17 consecutive games and was on pace for a whopping 137 this season before the injury. His power has come along nicely as well. He's been a perfect fit for the #2 spot, even more perfect (ssssh) than the man he replaced there. It's tough to watch a guy with a .455 OBP get kicked to the bottom of the lineup, but it's even tougher watching him get kicked to the DL.

One thing that's very different for Johnson this season is that he's standing further off the plate, with one of the results being that he's yet to get hit by a pitch after being plunked 12 times last year. Given how much more valuable he's becoming, that's not an unwelcome development, but as this week has shown, bones break due to other causes too.

Alfonso Soriano (2B): Recent slump notwithstanding, this freak of nature has defied his critics and continues to grow as a hitter. His 12 homers are tied for third in the league, and he's in the top 10 in four major categories. But what's most impressive is his improved plate discipline. He's walked 16 times, compared to only 23 last year, and though five of those are intentional, that doesn't obscure the gains he's made. His strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio is 3.5, compared to 7.1 last year, and his overall K/W is 2.4, compared to 6.8. His .378 OBP is a vast improvement on last year's .332 (he was above .400 until a week ago), and he's on pace for 62 walks to go with his 147 strikeouts (compared to 157 last year). None of this has compromised his ability to crush bad balls outside the strike zone. You can tell those Juan Samuel comparisons to shut up.

Defensively, Sori's seems more comfortable pivoting on the double-play, and he's made only 2 errors. But while his Range Factor is steady with last year's, his Zone Rating is down considerably (.772 from .813); in other words, he's getting to a lower percentage of balls in his area. The Yankees defense as a whole relects this; their Defensive Efficiency rating is down to .688, 13th in a 14-team league and 23 points below the league average (last year .708, 8th in the league and 3 points below league average). We'll return to this subject later.

Derek Jeter (SS): They survived without him, doing well enough that sooner or later somebody will whisper Ewing Theory. But an unsettled score with the Boss and a desire to prove himself fully fit might foretell an even more focused Jeter than usual. With his hitting this past week, so far so good. Nick Johnson's bat covered for Jeter's absence almost perfectly; now the Yanks need Jeter to return the favor.

Erik Almonte (SS): Gotta hand it to him -- the kid acquitted himself reasonably well with the stick during Jeter's absence. That .706 OPS won't win any awards, but it does suggest he can handle major league pitching better than the Reys and the Enriques of the world. We're only talking about 100 PAs or so, but he hit significantly better on the road than in Yankee Stadium, suggesting either that nerves might have played a part or that his optimal future lies beyond the Bronx -- or perhaps both:

      PA  AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS   K/W

Home  41  .237  .293  .289  .582   7.0

Road  60  .296  .367  .426  .793   1.5

Nine errors, a .922 fielding percentage, and a .663 ZR won't make anybody forget Jeter's glove, nor do they inspire much confidence in Almonte's ability to handle third base. But with Drew Henson still looking like a quarterback trying to play third, the Yanks have little to lose by sending Almonte back to Columbus to experiment with the hot corner. But even if he continues full-time at short, at the very least the Yanks have given themselves another potential body for a trade come July.

Enrique Wilson (SS): You might assume I'd champion the cause of just about any futility infielder whose butt warps the planks of the Yankee bench. But you know the old saying, when you ASSUME it makes an ASS out of U and ME. Enrique, on the subject of derrieres, took one look at Luis Sojo and decided that junk in the trunk must be the secret to longevity in a futilityman. Increasingly, the only thing every Yankee fan in the range of YES knows about Wilson is that this guy couldn't hit his ass with a paddle, let alone major-league pitching. The Yanks were 100% correct not to let Wilson anywhere near the regular shortstop job in Jeter's absence, now the question is just, what is he still doing here?

Robin Ventura (3B): A hot (1.187 OPS) week has put Ventura's season back on track, but here's yet another example of a Yankee with a falling walk rate: one per 12.5 PAs this year, compared to one per 6.2 last season and per 7.7 for his career. The net result is a batting average that's 49 points higher than last season, but an OBP that's 16 points lower -- another chin-scratcher.

Torre has almost completely shielded lefty-hitting Ventura from lefthanders -- only 13 PAs thus far. He didn't do spectacularly against them last season (.218/.310/.475/.785 in 115 PA), and he's got a career 73-point dropoff in OPS against southpaws. But Torre's handling of Ventura has more to do with preventing him from wearing down late in the season. Over the past three years, he's fallen off the cliff after the All-Star break to the tune of 140 OPS points.

Todd Zeile (3B-1B): This Joe Torre favorite is ostensibly Ventura's platoon partner at third; he's got a 95-point OPS advantage against lefties over the past three seasons, and it's even more pronounced in his limited PAs this season: .820 vs lefties, .546 vs. righties. Unfortunately, Torre continues to find him opportunities against righties which further everyone's misery.

But where the third-base platoon's broken down has been Zeile's ability to play the field: 5 errors and an .886 fielding percentage in 17 games, though his Zone Rating is virtually identical to Ventura's and his Range Factor and double-play rates actually higher. Insert sample-size caveat here. Over the next 4-6 weeks, Zeile will be picking up some time at first base and DH, provided his bat warms up. The Yanks could probably do better elsewhere, but you know how Torre loves Zeile's bland brand of Proven Veteran-ness.

Hideki Matsui (LF): "RBIs aside, he's hitting like Chad Curtis," observed Steven Goldman, who writes the fantastic Pinstriped Bible column for the YES website. With a .702 OPS, that almost sums it up. A 4-for-33 slump towards the end of April is still skewing his stats a bit; take that away and he's at .302/.349/.443. Matsui's struggling especially against lefties (.631 OPS), in the daytime (.564 OPS) and with nobody on base (.587 OPS).

Much was made this spring of how little Matsui strikes out, but with 25 in 189 PA, he's looking ordinary in that department, suggesting the pitchers may have gotten a book on him pretty quickly, and now it's up to Matsui to adjust. It's too early to give up on him, but those 25-homer projections look like a pipe dream. The Yanks and Matsui would likely benefit from moving him lower in the batting order, where the expectations aren't quite so high. In the field, Matsui's generally looked good, but he's had a few lapses which may be due to communication barriers between him and Bernie Williams as much as anything else.

Bernie Williams (CF): Though his May's been a chilly one (.706 OPS), Bernie's scalding April has left him ahead of where he was last year at this time, and far healthier too. He's fifth in the league in On Base Percentage, and generally looks as if he's about to run off another carbon copy of his typically excellent season (that;s eight straight, by the way). The biggest aberration in Bernie's stats appears to be improved plate discipline; he's got 2.1 walks per strikeout, compared to 0.9 for his career. Defensively, his Range Factor and Zone Rating numbers are better than last year, and he's yet to make an error. The Yanks have plenty to worry about right now, but this guy ain't the problem.

Raul Mondesi (RF): Along with Nick Johnson, Mondesi's been the biggest surprise with the bat for the Yanks. Considerably more fit than last year, he's hitting better than he ever has in his career. Hell, he's mashing to the tune of a .994 OPS. Most refreshingly, he's showing plate discipline, with an OBP about 70 points above his career average and a 0.5 pitches more per plate appearance. With Giambi and Matsui struggling, Torre ought to think about moving Mondesi up in the order; right now it would be no shame to bat him cleanup between Williams and Posada. That would have sounded ridiculous last summer, but it should be considered a measure of Mondy's improved approach as well as the team's circumstances. Defensively, he's still a treat to watch, reducing doubles off the wall to long singles with that cannon of an arm. Rock and Rauuuuuul!

Bubba Trammell (DH): Bubba's the forgotten man on the Yankee bench due to a confluence of several circumstances, namely Johnson's emergence, Mondesi's resurgence, Giambi's woes, and Torre's Zeile for veterans he can trust. Trammell was expected to pick up some playing time against lefties at DH and in the outfield to spell Mondesi, but thus far he's played only 9 games and gotten a paltry 30 PAs. His lack of a glove isn't helping Torre find room for him; Joe had enough trouble giving time to another lefty-masher who could catch the ball: Shane Spencer. If he hasn't completely rusted, he ought to start taking at-bats from Zeile as the latter's weaknesses gets increased exposure in Johnson's absence.

Next installment: pitching and fielding.