The Futility Infielder

Once in a while, either to provide an outlet for a tense disagreement or merely to keep ourselves entertained, my pal Nick and I make an impulsive bet with a sushi dinner riding on the outcome. Past wagers that have left him crying wasabi tears include picking the Jets to come from behind in the AFC championship game and Gerald Williams to get his first hit of the season before Albert Castillo. Past bets I've picked up the tab for include choosing Bobby Valentine to get fired before Ray Miller -- a bet I was eventually glad to lose after rethinking Bobby V's entertainment value.

As this season started, Nick seemed pretty certain that the Minnesota Twins wouldn't repeat as champions of the AL Central. I begged to difffer, pointing to the presence of the Indians, Tigers, and Royals as the division's obvious patsies and figuring that the White Sox hadn't done enough to close the 13.5 game gap that separated the two teams last year. Nick pointed to Twins manager Ron Gardnehire's tendency to let his team's greatest strength -- its depth -- go to waste by keeping the wrong man on the bench and underutilizing two of his potentially most productive players, pitcher Johan Santana and outfielder Bobby Kielty. I pointed to the gaudy, jewel-encrusted Futility Infielder of the Year belt that Gardenhire brandishes and told Nick, "Your edamame wears combat boots," or words to that effect. Now it's duelling chopsticks over the AL Central, with me defending the Twins' honor and Nick taking the rest of the field.

Early returns in the AL Central project me to be the one eating the rainbow roll of remorse, but not because of the White Sox. It's the Royals who have surprised everybody by seizing control of the Central with a 9-0 start that ran to 16-3 before cooling off (they're now 20-10). Hell, most people, had they bothered to figure, would have projected the Royals to win their 20th game around June 1st, and then only if George Brett came back to bat cleanup. The Twins, meanwhile, are in second place, playing at an unimpressive .500 clip (15-15). No regular besides Kielty or Corey Koskie has an OPS over .800, and the team's top three starters, Brad Radke, Joe Mays, and Rick Reed, have combined for a 5.81 ERA, a 6-11 record, and no shortage of aches and pains.

But Twins Geek John Bonnes points out that the Twins' performance thus far has been distorted by the games they've played against the Yankees. In those seven games, which still make up about a quarter of the Twins schedule, they're 0-7 and have been outscored 49-13. For starters, as Bonnes notes, four members of the Yankees vaunted rotation just OWN the Twins hitters. Here are the career OPS figures posted by the active Twins against each, according to Bonnes:

Pitcher          OPS

David Wells     .562

Roger Clemens   .434

Mike Mussina    .487

Andy Pettitte   .576

That'll cause some problems. Moreover, the Twins stats thus far are still heavily influenced by their futility against the Yanks:

                 OPS                    OPS

2003 Overall    .703   2002 Overall    .772

     vs NYY     .524        vs NYY     .612

     vs Others  .761        vs Others  .779

So while their offense is still slightly down, it's not down by as much once that pinstriped lump in their mattress is accounted for, and as Bonnes concludes, it's too early to hit the panic button. Against the rest of the teams, the Twins are 15-8, and the good news for them is that they're done with the Yankees until at least October. Can they repeat with another AL Central title? Here's hoping they roll to it.