The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Friday, May 23, 2003

On Closer Examination

Robert Tagorda, who writes a blog called Priorities & Frivolities, has an interesting comparison between Braves closer John Smoltz and Dodger closer Eric Gagne. Smoltz is being celebrated for the Braves having won a whopping 72 straight games in which he's appeared, dating back to last June 3. It's an impressive stat, to be sure, but it's also one which reminds us just how rigidly defined the job of a closer is. In a more rational universe a team's best reliever would be called upon in all kinds of situations, not just when the team's ahead, and not just for the last three outs. Bill James did a study in the New Bill James Historical Abstract in which he concluded that the optimal times to use your relief ace were:

• two innings in a game when the game is tied
• two innings in a game when you have a one-run lead
• one inning at a time in other games when the game is close at the end and the relief ace hasn't been used for a day or two.

Anyway, we're nowhere near that kind of usage pattern for the modern-day closer, but that's a problem for another day. Tagorda was simply interested in pointing out that if we're talking dominant one-inning closers, Gagne has the numbers over Smoltz. The bespectacled one is limiting opponents to a microscopic .339 OPS (.191 OBP/.141 SLG) compared to Smoltz at .574 (.265 OBP/.309 SLG). This isn't exactly a fluke; last year Gagne held opponents to a .535 OPS (.232 OBP/.302 SLG). Tagorda's eye-popping numbers also show Gagne to be more efficient than Smoltz, and more valuable in terms of saves in 1-run games. Good stuff that I wish I had more time to dig into.

That Dodger staff is putting up some astounding numbers; they're on pace to allow fewer than 500 runs, which hasn't been done over a 162-game season since the Year of the Pitcher, 1968. Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan has a good piece about how the Dodger pitchers and hitters are faring this season.

posted by Jay # 1:03 AM

Comments: Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home

Archives

June 2001 July 2001 August 2001 September 2001 October 2001 November 2001 December 2001 January 2002 February 2002 March 2002 April 2002 May 2002 June 2002 July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002 November 2002 December 2002 January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]