The Futility Infielder

In one of my pieces last week, I touched on the topic of pitch counts. An earlier version of that piece which was sacrificed to the fickle and vengeful diety that lives inside my computer contained a reference to the new poster child for pitcher abuse, A.J. Burnett, who placed second in the 2002 PAP^3 standings at the tender age of 25. Like that draft, Burnett's elbow has officially gone kablooey. The Florida Marlins pitcher, already serving his second stint of the season on the DL (and his third since last August), was found to have completely torn his ulnar collateral ligament. He underwent Tommy John surgery on Tuesday and, well, you know the drill. Just forward any mail for "the real" A.J. Burnett to the middle of next year, please.

Unfortunately, Burnett's injury isn't in the least bit shocking -- it's like a car crash in slow motion. The Marlins, under manager Jeff Torborg, rode him extremely hard last year, unable to resist the temptation of a fine young pitcher coming into his own. Burnett tied for second in the majors with seven complete games and led the league with five shutouts -- piddling totals compared with the workhorses of yesteryear, perhaps, but still a lot by today's standards. Using the PAP^3 metrics, nine of his 29 starts were Category IV (122-132 pitches), where the risk of short-term decline is "significant." No wonder that he broke down in August, going on the DL with elbow trouble after a span of exceptionally heavy usage (five starts, 41 innings, and average of 119 piches per start) and was limited to 13.1 innings after August 18.

Then, more elbow trouble this spring, followed by some five-inning outings with high pitch counts and decreased velocity, and now the congregation will read from the Book of Jobe. But what's interesting is that the response to Burnett's injury has been anything but the usual "those young pitchers will break your heart" script. Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll started the round of finger-pointing at Torborg and pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, and was soon joined by several Baseball Tonight personalities, including Harold Reynolds, Peter Gammons, and Bobby Valentine.

From there, things got even more serious. Burnett stood by Torborg and his staff, and alleged that the Marlins' upper management knew more about his elbow woes than they let on to Torborg -- particularly that he had a bone spur in his elbow. Marlins GM Larry Beinfest and team physician Dr. Dan Kanell quickly moved to defend themselves and control the damage.

Aaron Gleeman has some strong words about the situation over at his blog:

There is just no way a reasonable person can look at how A.J. Burnett has been handled over the past 12-15 months and come to a conclusion that in any way suggests the Florida Marlins "were trying to protect the kid from the first day." Not only is Jeff Torborg an idiot that abuses his pitchers and then is confused when they come up injured, he is an idiot that then lies about it in such a way that is nothing if not blatant.

Aaron's continuing coverage of the situation is both excellent and extensive, so I won't go into much more detail here and instead suggest you read more of what he has to say on the topic.

Instead I'll take this opportunity to respond to a thoughtful comment on my pitcher abuse piece last week. Here it is again, from reader George Southrey:

I guess the question about pitch counts and a pitcher's longterm health is this: In today's free agent financial world, why would you want to protect a pitcher unless you had a longterm interest in him? Strictly from a business perspective, if you knew you could not afford to re-sign a Kerry Wood, why not pitch him until his arm falls off if he's winning? Why should you care about his arm strength 3 years from now if he's on another team?

I know that sounds callous, but there's no reason for financially-strapped teams to 'manage' young pitchers' innings for the sake of their careers unless you will be the beneficiary of those careers.

That's one of the sad facts of the current "Haves-Have Nots" baseball structure.

George, first off, the Cubs are definitely NOT have-nots. They're the eighth most valuable franchise according to the recent Forbes Magazine estimate (worth $335 million, up 17% from the year before, which was the biggest gain in the game) and had the fifth-highest operating profit last year post revenue-sharing ($11.9 mil). Hell, they've been marking up tickets 3300 percent and if they're losing money anywhere, it's only through creative accounting. If they want to sign Kerry Wood when he's a free agent, they should have no problem. Shed no tears for the Tribune Company's poverty.

But back to the issue at hand. I think the main reason a team would want to protect its pitchers is that they've ALREADY invested a huge amount of money, time, instruction, and roster space to a pitcher by the time he reaches the ability of, say, an A.J. Burnett. Their interest has already been long-term. Burnett has slept with the Fish since February 1998 (he came over in a trade for Al Leiter), but it wasn't until 2001 that he solidified a spot in the team's rotation. I don't know exactly how much service time he has in days on a major-league roster, but he appears to have two or three more seasons before he's a free agent. In this day when insurance companies won't touch contracts longer than three years, Burnett's remaining time with the Marlins IS long term.

Now, just when he's finally put it together and become one of the league's top starters, the Marlins are losing Burnett for a huge chunk of the remaining time they have him cheap (he's only making $367,000 this season). For a team determined to keep costs down while remaining nominally competitive, that's a blow. Assuming Burnett's theirs through 2005, the Marlins would have done better to wait a couple more years before beating him like a rented mule. All those complete games and shutouts really do is add to his asking price anyway. How many arbitration cases these days hinge on the number of shutouts a 25-year-old pitcher threw?

Look at this issue from beyond just one arm. If an organization developed a reputation as burning through its young pitchers, what happens when the team's next #1 draft choice won't sign with them? What happens when agents won't steer their clients towards them? If the Cubs burn through Kerry Wood, what happens when Mark Prior decides he doesn't want to be the next patient in Dr. James Andrews' waiting room and starts taking himself out of games? The Cubs are gonna have some 'splaining to do.

Look beyond the unenlightened have-nots. By all accounts, no team has a more proactive approach to pitcher developoment than the Oakland A's, who were still pinching pennies the last time I checked. They're not burning through their young arms, they're working to correct delivery flaws and prevent injuries in addition to keeping their eyes on the pitch counts. Keeping pitchers healthy is how teams in the have-not position can gain an edge -- after all, wouldn't you expect the big-money teams to be the ones most willing and able to go through disposable starters?

To summarize: In the abstract, I don't think that the strategy George suggests could survive. And if we're talking "Haves or the Have Nots" in the A.J. Burnett instance, it's knowledge, not money, that the Marlins are lacking. From the top on down, the Fish are one of the most inept, two-bit, fly-by-night operations around. Jeffrey Loria and David Samson ran the Expos into the ground, then received the chance to do it all over again in the Florida sun thanks to Bud Selig's bag job of a franchise transfer trifecta. Jeff Torborg will never win any awards for managerial enlightenment either. Hey, he's never won anything else.

By the way, if it seems like I'm mentioning B-Pro's Will Carroll a lot around these parts, it's true. Along with Jonah Keri's excellent series of interviews (including the Dr. Frank Jobe and Rick Peterson ones linked above), Carroll's columns are the most interesting stuff on the site, and his work is nearly worth the price of a subscription itself. They're day-to-day essential stuff that also touches the Big Picture on a regular basis while expanding our knowledge of the game and how the bodies of the men who play it really work.