The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Tuesday, April 06, 2004

 

Prediction Pain

My first glimpse of the 2004 season's stateside edition was a memorable one. Flipping back and forth between ESPN2's coverage of Monday night's Giants-Astros matchup and the pregame for the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game, I caught Houston manager Jimy Williams waddling to the mound to confer with starter Roy Oswalt. The 'Stros held a 4-1 lead, but with one out in the eighth and runners on first and second, that three-run lead looked all too precarious as Barry Bonds stepped into the box.

Williams conversed with Oswalt at length, drawing a complaint from ESPN's Rick Sutcliffe, who suggested that the pitcher would stiffen up the longer the manager deliberated. In the end, Williams stuck with his starter, and the move backfired. Bonds lined Oswalt's first pitch over the rightfield wall for a three-run homer, tying the game and moving him within one dinger of godfather Willie Mays' 660 homers. I was hardly joyful -- I'd rather see the Giants lose than just about any other team, and I'm no Bonds fan -- but I had to admire the emphatic point which the slugger had made.

As for the Astros, I've drastically overestimated them during the Jimy Williams era. My preseason predictions have had them winning the NL Central in both 2002 and 2003, even taking the pennant in '02. I'd always held that Williams got a raw deal in Boston, and that Larry Dierker, who won four NL Central titles in five seasons but never won a postseason matchup, got jobbed even worse. Perhaps my prognostications represented too much wishcasting, but after seeing Williams last night and reviewing my performance, I've decided that I won't get fooled again. Houston underperformed their Pythagorean projection by seven games last season and by three the year before, and while the front office bears a good amount of responsibility for saddling the team with the likes of Brad Ausmus and Jose Vizcaino, it was Williams' Geoff Blum fetish (449 PA to a .262/.295/.379 hitter) as much as anything else that cost them the NL Central -- lost by one game to the Cubs -- last year. Eugh. So regardless of the presence of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, you won't catch me predicting the Astros to win anything this season.

Having pondered my Williams fetish, in the interest of fair disclosure I decided that before I offer my obligatory set of predictions for the 2004 season, I would reexamine my track record to see how well I've done. I've compared my predictions to the final standings for 2002 and 2003 using a formula based on an old Bill James method of calculating how well two lists agree. In a five-team division, the top team gets five points for my predicted finish, the second-place team four, the third place three, and so on. The actual finishers are awarded points in the same manner. The two numbers for each team are multiplied, yielding five products, which are added together and divided by a possible (5 x 5) + (4 x 4) + (3 x 3) + (2 x 2) + (1 x 1) = 55 points. For six-team divisions you've got a 6 x 6 factor, for a four-team division the maximum is 4 x 4. The idea is that predicting the team at the top is worth significantly more than predicting the team at the bottom.

Since this crude method tends to yield figures in the 90% percent range, I decided to add bonus points for my naming the correct playoff teams, or rather to penalize myself for NOT naming the correct ones. I went with 15 points for each correct division winner and Wild Card winner, and awarded 10 points if one of my division picks ended up with the Wild Card or vice versa. I then compared my performance with one derived as if last year's standings and Wild Card were the prediction for the following year. I'm not trying to trumpet my expertise, just establish a baseline for my own performance so that I can review it in the future, though I invite any other bloggers who've been publishing in a similar manner to add up their own scores.

My 2002 Predictions
AL East: Yanks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Devil Rays, Orioles = 54/55 points
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Royals = 54/55
AL West: Mariners, A's, Angels, Rangers = 27/31
Wild Card: A's
AL subtotal: 135/141 Playoff teams: 40/60
AL total: 175/201 = 87.1% AL baseline: 158/201 = 78.6%

NL East: Braves, Mets, Marlins, Phillies, Expos = 45/55
NL Central: Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Pirates = 85/91
NL West: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rockies = 50/55
Wild Card: Mets
NL subtotal: 180/201 Playoff teams: 30/60
NL total: 210/261 = 80.5% NL baseline: 230/261 = 88.1%

ML total = 385/462 = 83.3% ML baseline = 388/462 = 84.0%

2003
AL East: Yanks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays = 55/55
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Tigers = 54/55
AL West: A's, Angels, Mariners, Rangers = 29/31
Wild Card: Red Sox
AL subtotal: 138/141 Playoff Teams: 60/60
AL total score: 198/201 = 98.5% AL baseline 183/201 = 91.0%

NL East: Phillies, Braves, Expos, Mets, Marlins = 47/55
NL Central: Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Brewers = 87/91
NL West: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres = 51/55
Wild Cards: Dodgers
NL subtotal: 185/201 Playoff teams: 0/60
NL total score: 185/261 = 70.9% NL baseline score = 207/261 = 79.3%

ML total: 383/462 = 82.9% ML baseline: 390/462 = 84.4%

Two-year totals
AL: 92.8% (baseline 84.8%)
NL: 75.7% (baseline 83.7%)
ML: 83.1% (baseline 84.1%)

Clearly I'm far better at predicting the AL than the NL, which is what you might expect given that 80-90 percent of the games I watch are in the Junior Circuit. Overall, I'm just a hair below the baseline, thanks to that lousy NL performance and the fact that there's far more room to get in trouble in the with the six-team Central Division. From the looks of things, at times my NL projections are just that -- me projecting my desired outcomes onto the teams, rather than predicting what will happen.

With all of that baggage in mind, I offer you my 2004 predictions:

AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays.
The more things change, the more they stay the same; I see this division finishing in the same order for the seventh straight year. Both the Red Sox and the Yanks have made a lot of offseason noise, and both start the regular season with injury-related question marks here and there. I see the Sox problems -- Nomar, Pedro -- as potentially more devastating than the Yanks'. And while the 3-4-5 of A-Rod, Giambi, and Sheffield is going to cause pitchers a lot of pain this year, don't be too shocked when many of last year's surprising Boston hitters return to earth. The Jays and O's will both be tougher than in past years, but not enough so to topple what at this point feels like the natural order of things. Still, this will turn out to be one mother of a division. Oh, and you can take this to the bank: Lou Piniella will get mad at a pitcher at some point.

AL Central: Twins, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers.
I'm quite tempted to pick last year's surprising Royals to win this division over the Twins, who haven't been so constructive in their moves. That glut of young outfielders and corner hitters turned into... resigning Shannon Stewart while letting Latroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado walk? Eeek. In the end I still think the talent that Minnesota has on hand is better than that of KC, and the pitching, particularly with Johan Santana in the rotation for a full season, will separate the teams. This division sure won't fall to the White Sox, with Ozzie Guillen's head set to explode by Memorial Day when those first-inning sac bunts stop paying off. Cleveland is still a couple of years away from having an impact in this division, while Detroit will bear some resemblance to a major-league club by losing only 100-110 games instead of pushing the 120 envelope.

AL West: Angels, A's, Mariners, Rangers.
I've scratched my head several times wondering whether the A's have improved enough to withstand the much-improved Angels. While I'm tempted to just trust that Billy Beane knows what he's doing, I see question marks from Mark Mulder and Rich Harden that could really hamper the team, and I'm less than certain Arthur Rhodes can keep the closer job to which he's been annointed. On the other hand, I'm interested to see if the much-heralded Bobby Crosby was worth letting Miguel Tejada walk, and whether Bobby Kielty, long a favorite, can overcome a rough season and hit like the one in the catalog. And the world will be a better place if we can hear the name Scutaro over and over again. In the end, I'm more impressed by the Angels' addition of Vlad Guerrero, Bartolo Colon and to a lesser extent Jose Guillen and Kelvim Escobar, the latter of whom dearly needed a change of scenery. I don't like the decision to move their best defensive outfielder, Darin Erstad, to first base and watch Garrett "The Gazelle" Anderson roam center, but I'm not convinced it will hold up for very long either, so I'm picking the Angels. In Seattle the Bavasi regime already has fans pining for the heady days of Stand Pat Gillick, and the likes of Raul Ibanez and Rich Aurilia will remind the rest of us that signing mediocre free agents on the dark side of 30 is a losing game. Pitching will keep the M's respectable, but not enough so to win out. Texas finished last with A-Rod, it will finish last without him even less impressively than before.

NL East: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Expos, Mets
With Greg Maddux gone, the Braves' pitching staff enters a whole new era; Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, and John Thomson will hardly be confused with Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz in their prime. Thse Braves will give up runs, and with the losses of big bats such as Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield, they'll have a tougher time scoring them as well. Among the regulars, only Chipper Jones, J.D. Drew and Marcus Giles even project OBPs above .350, and if Drew gets 400 at-bats Atlanta should consider themselves lucky. It still won't be enough; the amazing run of success ends here. The single biggest obstacle the Phils face besides injuries is manager Larry Bowa; they're solid at just about every position and have a strong bench which can make the questions of whether Pat Burrell and David Bell bounce back easier to stomach. I'd put my nickel on Philly and double it when they ax the red-ass. Despite the full-season presences of Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, and Miguel Cabrera, Marlins will remind us that last year's championship was the kind of thing that comes to southern Florida only once every six or seven years. Ivan Rodriguez and Derek Lee represent a lot of high-grade offense to replace, and they simply haven't done so. Despite the loss of Vladimir Guerrero, the Expos have enough talent to put up a lot of runs, with a strong foundation of Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro, Brad Wilkerson, and Carl Everett, and Tony Batista and Orlando Cabrera are plus hitters for their positons as well. Where they'll have trouble is in the rotation, where Livan Hernandez and Tomo Okha can no longer hide behind departed ace Javier Vazquez. Expect lots of gopher balls, especially in Puerto Rico, and don't look for any love from the cartel when in-season upgrades might actually help. The Mets will make people pine for the days when there were two major league teams in New York.

NL Central: Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Brewers
While I'm a bit less emphatic with Mark Prior sidelined, I still see the Cubs' improved pitching -- upgrading Maddux over Shawn Estes and adding LaTroy Hawkins -- as separating them from the pack, Dusty Baker be damned. Aside from what I've already said about the Astros, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio have, like most of us, gotten older. Pettitte and Clemens may improve the already-strong rotation, but Jimy will find a way to give those gains back by wasting more at-bats on offensive ciphers to be named later. The Cardinals will be competitive with Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, and Edgar Renteria in the lineup, but they don't have the pitching to run with the big boys here, especially if Woody Williams' arm falls off. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee will continue to play their too-poor-to-compete cards until the fans build them new ballparks, which... wait, they already did that. Well, they're really screwed now.

NL West: Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies
Somebody has to win this division, right? Tempted though I am to wishcast the Dodgers into first place, I've restrained myself from doing so, with the caveat that since it will only take about 85-88 games to win this division, this one will probably go down to the wire. The Padres have done some interesting upgrading since late last year, adding Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, and David Wells, so what the hell, I'll put my nickel on them. The Dodgers have improved slightly since Paul DePodesta took over the helm; the Milton Bradley deal, while it may bite them in the ass down the road, give the team a needed shot of offense. But unless Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora morph into productive hitters (hold on, I haven't stopped laughing) or Adrian Beltre lives up to that long-lost promise (no, really), these guys ain't going nowhere. On the other hand, the right late-season deal could give any team in the division the edge, and the Dodgers have a lot of minor-league talent to offer. Besides Barry Bonds, the Giants don't scare anybody, except their own medical staff. Even if Jason Schmidt is healthy they won't have enough pitching. And that outfield... Michael Tucker? Marquis Grissom? Jeffrey Hammonds? Dustan Mohr? Elsewhere, the Diamondback will continue to age less than gracefully, and the Rockies will score some runs while allowing even more.

Wild Cards: Boston, Houston (yeah, I know... old habits die hard)

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Javier Vazquez
Al Rookie of the Year: Bobby Crosby

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Kerry Wood (unless Mark Prior gets healthy quickly)
NL Rookie of the Year: Edwin Jackson

First manager fired: Larry Bowa

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