Frank Thomas CHI .494Berman then asked his fellow Baseball Tonight panelists, "Should we care about that stat?" This was apparently a setup for the show's "3 Up, 3 Down segment," so it was more or less written beforehand. Here is Reynolds' response, transcribed to the best of my ability. You're really missing his squeaky inflection and condescending tone -- his fractured style is more or less captured, however:
Ron Belliard CLE .481
Lew Ford MIN .473
Jason Giambi NYY .453
Melvin Mora BAL .442
I think it's overrated. I don't think it indicates how the game is played at all. There are certain roles -- guys that get their man over in certain situations -- you're not going to get an on-base percentage for that. I think it takes away from the game. And the other thing is a lot of the guys with high on base percentages, they just clog the bases. Talk about Frank Thomas.Whew! Holding up Corey Patterson and Jimmy Rollins as "guys who are going to score some runs" while disdaining the likes of Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas, and Jason Varitek is really something coming from a man with a career .327 OBP and 21 homers. Reynolds seems to think scoring runs has nothing to do with where in the batting order you are and who's hitting behind you in the lineup, and he doesn't have much use for those lousy runs scored by big slow guys who can hit the ball over the fences.
Corey Paterson -- these are guy who have bad on-base percentages right now -- .309 [OBP]. This guy is going to score runs for you. On this list I've got Corey Patterson, I've got Jimmy Rollins, and I have Derek Jeter.
Jimmy Rollins last year had a .320 on-base percentage scored 85 runs. He hit 8 home runs. Take away those home runs, he was on base 211 times and he scored 77 times. That ain't no .500 on-base percentatge, but he's scoring a heck of a lot of runs.
Derek Jeter ,well we know, .259 [OBP], we know his at batting average struggle and all that. He scores 33 percent of the time he's on base and that will change as the season goes on because he's going to be on base. Guys that don't clog the bases are going to go base to base.
Now I have a problem with everybody saying, oh this is such a great stat. Jason Giambi, if he hits the ball out of the ballpark, that's great. But if he's on first base, he ain't scoring on the gapper, its taking two hits to score him. To me that's the difference in the game today. Everybody's saying on-base percentage is the greatest thing ever. Jason Varitek, this guy last year, he scored 63 runs. All right? That's great, he had almost a .400 on-base percentage. He scored 63 runs! I mean, I don't get it. I just don't get it.
Then Frank Thomas, we talked about the Big Hurt. .494 OBP, .489 last year, he doesn't extend the plate that much. 216 times he's on base last year, he scored 45 runs. He's scoring one out of five times he's on base. I think we're getting carried away with this on-base percentage thing, because it doesn't tell the true story of a full game. I'm not going to pitch to Frank Thomas in a situation when I know I got a base open and he's not going to score on a gapper. I don't want him hitting the ball out of the ballpark. It changes the way the game is played. I think we're taking numbers and we're forgetting all the things that go in to making baseball what it really is.
PA OBP Out TOB R-HR %R HR RThe "score some runs guys" scored a bit over one in three times they got on base, while the "clog the basepaths guys" only did so about one in five -- a decent point worth making, to cut Reynolds some slack. The BUT in that statement is bigger than Jennifer Lopez's derriere, however. First off, Reynolds completely dismisses the value of a home run -- that's a run in the bank, while a runner on base is merely a potential run. The cloggers outhomered the scorers by a margin of 108 to 31, about 26 homers per player, to say nothing of the benefits of driving in other runs. Second, even with Jeter missing a month of the season and Patterson missing about half, the "score some runs" guys used up many more outs than the cloggers, 1259 to 1183 -- about one game's worth of outs per player -- and they scored 26 fewer runs overall. The scorers are helped immensely by Jeter, who really is an OBP machine compared to the other two. Compare Jeter and Rollins, who scored the exact same number of runs without homers. Rollins used up 146 more outs and only got on base nine more times than Jeter. Harold, HOW IN THE HELL DOES THAT HELP AN OFFENSE?
Rollins 689 .320 491 211 77 36.4 8 85
Patterson 347 .329 243 101 36 35.6 10 49
Jeter 542 .393 345 202 77 38.1 13 87
Thomas 662 .390 415 216 45 20.8 42 87
Giambi 690 .412 416 243 56 23.0 41 97
Varitek 521 .351 352 181 38 21.0 25 63
... Boston plays the "Moneyball" style -- never bunt, don't take chances on the bases, sit back and let your hitters hack away and do the work regardless of the game situation, regardless of the identity of the opposing pitcher. Other teams -- the Anaheim Angels and the Florida Marlins, most notably -- prefer to use their outs productively, by bunting, employing the hit-and-run; they put runners in motion and emphasize aggressive base-running as part of a larger strategy to put pressure on the opposing pitcher and the defense behind him.Accompanying this is an Elias-generated list of the top six and bottom six teams in POP through April 26:
...it will be interesting to see if, eventually, this passive-aggressive approach hurts Boston, especially with the shift in the team's makeup. The Red Sox nearly bashed their way to the World Series last year, but they improved their pitching for 2004, shed Todd Walker, added light-hitting glove whiz Pokey Reese, and have been playing without injured Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon, whose rehabilitations are being closely monitored.
... The Marlins and Angels have fully diverse offenses: some excellent power hitters, an essential element; some patient hitters who draw walks, also crucial; they have hitters who make contact, advance runners efficiently; and they run the bases.
The offenses of the Red Sox and Athletics, on the other hand, are effectively two-dimensional, eschewing the productive out within their philosophy. Boston has one sacrifice bunt, Oakland zero, and through games of April 26, the Red Sox rank next-to-last in productive out percentage -- a statistic developed by the Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN -- at .200; Oakland is last, at .137.
Productive out percentage is the ratio of productive outs -- generally, advancing runners with the first out in an inning, or driving home a run with the second out. Last season, Anaheim ranked fourth overall in this statistic, at .347, the Marlins fifth, at .334. Juan Pierre ranked third among individual players, with a POP of .545.
1. Detroit Tigers .430Are the alarm bells sounding yet? They should be. Trumpeting a stat in which the Tigers lead the majors after four weeks is just silly, potential 25-game improvement or not. In all likelihood the three lowest-ranked teams in this stat are going to the playoffs, while the three highest-ranked will be making tee times by August. Furthermore, what of the other 18 teams? It would be helpful to know, for example, how well the division-contending teams are doing, even at this early juncture. It would be even more helpfpul to have a full season's data, or several full seasons of data to look at so that we can better evalulate the veracity of the stat. Why we don't have that, here or anywhere else, is a topic to which I'll return later.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks .417
3. Pittsburgh Pirates .417
4. San Diego Padres .400
5. Texas Rangers .365
6. Houston Astros .349
25. Seattle Mariners .229
26. San Francisco Giants .226
27. Cincinnati Reds .225
28. New York Yankees .210
29. Boston Red Sox .200
30. Oakland Athletics .137
0 1 2The expected yield of a runner on first with no outs is 0.953 runs. Use up an out to move him to second and the expectancy drops to 0.725 runs, a loss of 0.228 runs. The expected yield of a runner on second with no outs is 1.189, use up an out to move him to third and that drops to 0.983, another 0.206 runs lost. And so on.
0 0.555 0.297 0.117
1 0.953 0.573 0.251
2 1.189 0.725 0.344
3 1.482 0.983 0.387
1+2 1.573 0.971 0.466
1+3 1.904 1.243 0.538
2+3 2.052 1.467 0.634
1+2+3 2.417 1.650 0.815
There have been 142 post-season series since 1969. In 130, one team or another has had an advantage in Productive Outs -- and in 62.3 percent of those 130 series, the team with the advantage in Productive Outs has prevailed. Factor in the 12 series in which opposing teams have tied in Productive Outs, and it can be said that teams with a deficit in POs have won 34.5 percent of post-season series.The problem is that even in considering the results of a short series, Productive Outs is an unproductive indicator relative to other statistics. A man named Mitchell Below writing a now-defunct blog called Tribescribe did a handy little study of those 142 series, the results of which are here:
Adv. Winner Loser NeitherProductive Out advantage predicted the winner in 57% of postseason series (62.3% if you exclude the no-decisions as Olney did above), a rate exceeded by advantages in plate appearances (for these purposes simply at bats + walks), homers, and runs. In other words, thanks for nothing. Yes, there are certainly times where a productive out comes in handy, and the Yanks might have had themselves World Championship number 27 if Boone had been able to provide one. But such anecdotal evidence isn't what holds water in this battle. The real question is do productive outs correlate with scoring runs, or don't they?
R 78.9% 17.6% 3.5%
HR 61.3% 26.1% 12.7%
PA* 57.7% 33.1% 9.2%
PO 57.0% 34.5% 8.5%
BB 56.3% 35.9% 7.7%
This is Elias playing politics. The Elias Sports Bureau cannot survive without the support of the leagues. What they see is themselves being made irrelevant by the likes of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein, who look to non-Elias people for information. If I'm an owner, I have to start asking why MLB is paying the Hirdts big money to keep stats, when others can do it as well and cheaper. So Elias has decided to appeal to all those GMs who think Beane is wrong.Pinto, who now works for a company called Baseball Info Solutions along with other STATS vets, has been critical in the past of Elias for being more interested in peddling trivia than in educating fans or media clients about the game. And I'm afraid that short of a usable, testable statistic to add to our arsenal, that's just what we have here: trivia. I'm not saying that productive outs here and there aren't important or that they won't win you a game, but creating a stat which one columnist occasionally pulls out of his ass to selectively support his arguments is irresponsible at best and intellectually dishonest at worst.
Listening once again to Jim Kaat spout more half-assed comments about how the game is supposed to be played, I'm starting to come to that realization I suppose all people come to as they get older, that you can't change the minds of the previous generation, you have to win over the minds of the next one. I should let Kaat and Kay's foolishness roll off my back a little, and focus more on presenting information to the casual observer of sabermetrics in a way that might be more appealing. Let the media and fanboys fawn over Derek Jeter's defense; we can't change their minds, it's the unbiased who we have to educate.Amen to that.
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