The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

 

Lunchtime Link: Yankee Win Shares

Thanks to Studes of the great Baseball Graphs site, The Hardball Times has its first Win Shares reports of the seasons. I decided to take a quick breeze through the Yankees, foregoing the rounding which Bill James mandates in the Win Shares book, because at this early stage in the season the difference between, say, 1.5 and 2.4 shares is pretty substantial. Rank refers to same position in the AL, with all outfielders lumped together, and the total win shares unrounded:
HITTERS    POS  OFF  DEF  TOT  RANK

Posada C 5.8 0.2 6.0 2
Giambi 1B 5.9 0.0 5.9 1
Clark 1B 1.6 0.0 1.6 12T
Cairo 2B 1.4 0.5 1.9 10
Wilson 2B 0.0 0.6 0.6 16
Jeter SS 0.0 1.8 1.8 10T
Rodriguez 3B 3.2 2.6 5.8 3
Matsui OF 4.1 0.9 5.0 13
Williams OF 1.0 0.6 1.6 39
Lofton OF 1.1 0.6 1.7 37T
Sheffield OF 3.3 1.0 4.3 18T
Crosby OF 1.5 0.3 1.8 36
Sierra OF 2.6 0.0 2.6 29
The most glaring thing to note about the numbers above is the big zero in Derek Jeter's offensive contribution, but then his .195/.251/.277 line is easy to confuse with another offensive cipher, second baseman Enfeebled Wilson. Miguel Cairo, who thankfully seems to have stolen the second base job from Wilson, has been more valuable than Jeter, Bernie Williams, or Kenny Lofton, with the latter two outproduced by the exiled Bubba Crosby thus far. On the positive side, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, and Alex Rodriguez have all been near the top of their respective positions. Rodriguez leads AL third basemen in defensive win shares by a wide margin, over a full win share ahead of Texas' Hank Blalock, lending further credence to the early Gold Glove hype. In fact A-Rod leads all AL players in defensive win shares. Hideki Matsui, who thus far has put up a .277/.387/.454 line with 23 walks in 155 plate appearances, has been more than solid. The rest of the Yankee lineup has been in the nether regions of their respective positions thus far, though if you lump the centerfielders and DH candidates together you get 9.3 win shares over two positions, or somewhere between the values of Matsui and Sheffield at each one -- credible contributions thanks to Ruben Sierra and Tony Clark.

Over to the pitching... but before I do it's important to note, as the THT article does, "Ace relievers will receive credit for more Win Shares per inning pitched than a starting pitcher will. That's because the innings an ace reliever pitches (late and close) are more important than most of those pitched by a starter."
PITCHERS  POS  WS

Brown SP 4.3
Vazquez SP 2.8
Mussina SP 2.0
Lieber SP 1.0
Contreras SP 0.0
Rivera RP 4.1
Gordon RP 3.2
Quantrill RP 2.5
White RP 1.3
Prinz RP 0.6
Osborne RP 0.3
DePaula RP 0.2
Kevin Brown has been the most valuable starter on the staff by far, and the bullpen, led by Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill, has produced more win shares than the rotation. Fifth starter Jose Contreras has been baking donuts, though he's apparently ready to rejoin the rotation, which is okay when the alternative is Tanyon Sturtze (Donovan Osborne having been mercifully designated for assignment). Also putting up zero shares have been Felix Heredia, Scott Proctor, and Alex Graman, while backup catcher John Flaherty is the only zero-producing position player with any significant time.

With Sturtze, Cairo, and Flaherty on the roster, these Yanks are starting to wear the Tampa connection on their sleeves. I mean, don't their scouts ever leave the state of Florida? Just once I'd like to see them turn some west coast team's trash into role-player treasure instead of either exhuming washed-up Devil Rays or else dredging the banks of Mississippi River for undecomposed ex-Cardinals from Torre's time there (see Osborne as well as such past luminaries as Todd Zeile, Allen Watson, and Tony Fossas). Alas, that's a rant for another day.

But Sturtze is worth a rant all by himself. This is a 34-year-old righty pitcher whose stat line shows a 5.20 ERA and an 88 ERA+ in over 600 major-league innings. He doesn't strike out batters (5.3 per 9 innings), his control is lousy (1.4 K/W ratio), and he gives up plenty of homers (1.3 per 9). Last year he went 7-6 with a 5.94 ERA in Toronto, which must have felt like heaven after his 4-18, 5.18 ERA death march in Tampa in 2002. This guy, quite frankly, can't pitch for shit, and it's baffling that Brian Cashman even wasted his long-distance minutes prying him loose from the Dodgers for "future considerations," which is a nice way of saying, "Assuming he pitches up to his true talent level, you owe me nothing but the first round at the bar, big Bri."

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