The Futility Infielder

Rather than belabor the finale of the Yankees-Red Sox series -- let's just say that Jose Contreras should never, ever be let near that lineup -- I wanted to take a quick look at what's separating the two teams. Over at Bronx Banter, my old sparring partner Sully, who runs a blog called The House That Dewey Built noted the following, which I've reformatted to fit here (the extra O is for opponent's):

        OPB   SLG   OOBP  OSLG

Sox    .358  .470   .326  .407

Yanks  .352  .456   .321  .431

Accompanying this, Sully asked, "Is there a better strategy for winning baseball games than hitting for more power and getting on base more often than your opponent?" Elsewhere he asked:

What do you all make of BP's adjusted standings, pythag and the like? As a Sox fan, it's little consolation to me that the Sox are better than the Yanks in this respect but it does provide conviction in my belief that the Sox are at the very least the Yanks' equal. I am interested in sober thoughts here. Not "all that matters are wins and losses baby".

I offered Sully some quick answers, which I may as well expand upon here because I'm not going back to dwell on that ugly mess of a game (though I'm ready for somebody to carve up Felix Heredia for organ donation). First, let's look at a portion of the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings (through Sunday) to which he referred:

Team       W   L   RS   RA   W1   L1    EQR EQRA   W2   L2    D1   D2  

Red_Sox   54  44  548  479  55.5  42.5  577  444  61.4 36.6  -1.5 -7.4   

Yankees   61  36  541  478  54.4  42.6  531  456  55.7 41.3   6.6  5.3

The first four columns are the two teams' actual wins, losses, runs scored, and runs allowed. Using BP's Pythagenport formula, a modification of Bill James' Pythagorean formula which takes into account the run environment (the total number of runs per game), the Sox, based on their runs scored and allowed, could be expected to have a record that's 1.5 games better than their current one. The Yankees, on the other hand, could be expected to have a record that's 6.6 games worse than their current record -- an eight game swing, the same gap as that in the loss column.

Looking at the next set of numbers, we find the Equivalent Runs produced by the team -- a team's total offensive production, adjusted for park and league environment - and the number of Equivalent Runs allowed as well. These numbers measure how the components of runs -- the hits, the walks, the steals, the outs -- should add up on both sides of the ball. The Red Sox could be expected to outscore their opponents by 133 runs, though they've actually outscored them by only 69 -- a huge swing of 7.4 games to the negative. The Yankees, on the other hand, could have been expected to outscore opponents by 75 runs, and in fact, they've only done so by 63. They've outdone that projection by 5.3 games, another huge gap.

I said it after the Yankee sweep at the beginning of the month and I'll say it again -- despite the large gap in the standings, the run differentials show that these two teams are pretty close, and that kind of stuff has a way of evening out over the course of a season. The larger the sample size, the more closely a team's record will resemble its Pythagorean record, and the more closely its projected runs will resemble its actual runs. The things that often cause over- and underperformance relative to the Pythagorean are things like records in one-run games, a large number of blowouts, and particularly clutch (or unclutch) performances. Timing is everything.

Just taking a quick glance at the two teams' records in one-run games, the Yanks were 17-11 through Sunday, while the Sox were 7-10. How about that for an easy answer? Flipping through the two teams' batting stats, check out their performance in the "Close and Late" split, situations when the game is in the 7th inning or later and the hitter's team is ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run on base, at bat or on deck.

       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  SL*OB

Yanks .292  .381  .481  .862   .183

Opp   .232  .290  .361  .650   .105



Sox   .281  .355  .449  .804   .159

Opp   .236  .312  .395  .707   .123

How do you like them apples? While close and late is not the be-all and end-all of clutch stats -- hitting with runners in scoring position or with two outs and runners in scoring position are just as important, if not moreso, and just as elusive to trend-tracking -- this performance nonetheless does explain a bit of the spread between those two teams. The Yankees have a higher OPS than their opponents in those situations by over 200 points, while the Sox are about 100 points better than their opponents. That last column is SLG times OBP, which is a pretty good thumbnail measure for runs created per at-bat, not to mention old, old favorite of mine. The Yankees are 75 percent more productive per at-bat than their opponents in those situations, while the Sox are about 29 percent more productive than their opponents. Yankee hitters are about 10 percent more productive than Sox hitters in those situations, and Yankee pitchers are about 15 percent more productive (or their opponents' hitters less productive) than Sox pitchers in those situations.

Check out some of those Yankee OPS numbers in that situation:

           OPS  PA

Giambi   1.098  39

Posada   1.095  51

Matsui   1.059  56

Cairo    1.026  29

Jeter     .982  53

Sierra    .955  36

Lofton    .900  25

Sheffield .813  59

Rodriguez .736  58

Williams  .576  58

Clark     .557  32

With small sample sizes duly noted, that's still a whole lot of clutch goodness on one end, not to mention Mariano Rivera -- two consecutive blown saves after Monday night notwithstanding -- on the other. Some Sox numbers for comparison:

               OPS  PA

Garciaparra  1.115  18

Kapler       1.060  20

Damon        1.012  50

McCarty       .995  29

Youklis       .911  23

Ramirez,      .897  55

Ortiz         .890  54

Bellhorn      .749  52

Mueller       .734  35

Nixon         .627  17

Varitek       .617  52

Millar        .576  43

Some good ones, but more clunkers than the Yanks. Add it all up and you can say that at least in this situation, the Yanks have been more clutch than the Sox this year. But be forewarned: clutch hitting is a statistical Sasquach, a mythical beast ofted hunted but never subdued, only found in retrospect. Clutch hits exist, consistent clutch hitters simply do not, no matter how many times your drunk-assed buddy on the barstool high-fives you as he talks about what a money player Ol' Googly-Eye Jackson is. Just because certain Yanks have hit well in 40 or 50 trips to the plate in certain situations doesn't mean they'll continue to do so; in fact it's more likely that those numbers will come to more closely resemble the rest of their stats. And whether or not the team in Boston is actually gunning for the AL East flag or merely trying to assure itself of the Wild Card, don't be surprised when the race tightens.

That is, unless the Yankees throw Felix Heredia's intestines to the wolves after finding another competent reliever, in which case the Bombers ought to run away with it all.