The Futility Infielder

While I've been spending a lot of time focusing on the Yankees -- even recording a Baseball Prospectus Radio roundtable with the usual suspects (Belth, Corcoran, Goldman) to air this weekend -- the Dodger fan in me perked up his ears at the hot rumor of a Shawn Green-for-Mike Piazza deal. Both the New York Times and the LA Times report that Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta and Mets GM Omar Minaya have had preliminary discussions of such a swap at the General Managers meetings currently taking place in Florida.

A few years ago this might have been hailed as a blockbuster. But at this point the deal -- which may well never come to pass due to both players having no-trade clauses -- amounts to an even-money challenge trade involving two fairly similar stars on the decline. Both players have overcome the obstacles of hitting in the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium to hit 40 homers multiple times, but are unlikely to do so again. Both saw considerable time at first base last year due to injury concerns. Both are in the final years of deals which pay them $16 million.

Over the past couple of years, Green, 32, has seen his production slide considerably thanks to a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder. Instead of being repaired during surgery following last season, the cartilage was removed, leaving an unappetizing bone-on-bone situation in his shoulder which has likely inhibited his function and caused some pain. He hit .266/.352/.459 with 28 homers and 86 RBI in 2004, similar numbers to the year before, only two years removed from a pair of monster seasons which saw him hit 91 homers and drive in 239 runs. His stats did improve considerably as the year went on; he was at .253/.335/.399 with 10 homers before the All-Star Break, .281/.371/.529 with 18 homers after, a big help for the Dodgers down the stretch as they won the NL West.

Piazza, of course, made his star with the Dodgers, clawing his way up from a 62nd-round nepotism-fueled draft choice to become the 1993 NL Rookie of the Year and one of the most prodigious hitters in Dodger history. His best season came in 1997, when he hit a whopping .362/.431/.638 with 40 homers and 124 RBI. But a contract dispute with the new Fox regime led to a shocking trade which brought the Dodgers Gary Sheffield and sent Piazza on a circuitous route to the Mets. After nearly five superstar-caliber years in Flushing, the 36-year-old has missed 127 games over the past two seasons thanks to wrist, knee, and groin injuries. The latter cost him about 3 months of the 2003 campaign, not to mention a chance to play in his 11th straight All-Star Game.

Piazza is unequivocally the greatest hitting catcher of all time, but these injury-riddled seasons have been aswirl in controversy due to the Mets hamfisted attempt to move him to first base, usually informing the media of their plans prior to telling him. He hit .266/.362/.444 with 20 homers last year while playing first 68 times and catching only 50. Like just about every other Met, he had an abysmal second half, hitting an anemic .200/.305/.310 and 4 homers after the break following a very Piazza-like .297/.388/.506 16-homer first half. His stats were especially bad when he played first base (.229/.324/.383), but they looked quite vintage behind the plate (.331/.419/.552).

As hitters, the two players' performances were essentially equal last year. Green hit for a .280 EQA and was 35 runs above replacement level (BRAR), while Piazza hit for a .279 EQA and was 27 runs above replacement. The difference has everything to do with playing time, with Green playing in 157 games and Piazza only 129.

Defensively, neither was any great shakes according to Baseball Prospecus' fielding numbers. Piazza, who's never been a very good catcher defensively, was 12 runs below average overall, most of that attributable to his time behind the plate, where he was -9 runs in only 50 "games" (some of those being fragmentary). His Rate2 stat for that position shows him at 79, meaning he was 21 runs below average per 100 games, far below his career mark of 92, or eight runs below average. At first base, his Rate2 was 95, again nothing to write home about. Green was even worse at first, where he played 111 games and was 11 runs below average, a Rate2 of 90. In 52 games in rightfield he put up a 94 rate, still far below his career average of 103. He had only two assists out there after averaging about eight a year over the course of his career.

All things considered, I like this trade from the Dodgers' standpoint. It is far easier to find a first baseman or rightfielder who can put up an .800 OPS/.280 EQA than it is to find a catcher who can do so; in fact, the Dodgers have on their roster the neglected Hee Seop Choi, who despite a miserable 62 at-bat post-trade trial in which he hit .161/.289/.242, still put up a .370 OBP and .449 SLG on the year, a .288 EQA. The average EQA among all first basemen last year was .279, while rightfielders were at .272. Catchers, on the other hand, came in at .248.

While the difference in the two players' ages is a concern -- banking on a 36-year-old catcher is a risky business -- I also think that they're further apart in ability than last year's stats indicate. Shawn Green is at best an All-Star, while Mike Piazza is a Hall of Famer. Despite Piazza's defensive lapses and his inability to control the running game (he's been stolen on at a 76 percent clip over the course of his career and allowed 0.85 steals per game), he's clearly more comfortable behind the plate and unlikely to take his fielding woes up to bat with him. He's also likely to be much happier playing for a team that has a shot at returning to the postseason, and one with enough sense not to jerk him around in public. Used judiciously and given only the occasional game at first base to keep his bat in the lineup, he should be considerably more productive, and that's without even mentioning the prodigal son factor. Let's face it, this trade would heal some wounds in Dodger history.

But that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Green, who is from Southern California and playing for a contending team, is more likely to veto the deal than Piazza, who is carrying a ton of baggage thanks to the way the Mets brass has treated him and is faced with a rebuilding season in Shea Stadium. It's tough to blame Piazza for wanting to go, but it's just as tough, if not tougher to blame Green for not wanting to do so.