The Futility Infielder

Like my Remaking the Yankees series, the Hall of Fame ballot has become an annual staple of my winter diet. For the second time this calendar year, I've tackled the most recent slate of candidates for Baseball Prospectus. The hitters' segment, an epic unto itself, went up on Thursday and is free to all readers. The pitchers' piece should follow shortly, and if history is any guide, it will be a premium piece.

Since the last time I vetted the ballot, I have very self-consciously re-christened my system JAWS (JAffe WARP Score) after dusting it off for a look at Barry Bonds' teammates a couple of months ago. JAWS is based on Clay Davenport's Wins Above Replacement Player metrics found on the Davenport Translated Player Cards. Just as before, the idea was to identify the players on the ballot who meet or exceed the standards of the Hall of Fame, with those standards being defined as better than the average Hall of Famer at his position in light of those Davenport metrics. A player's career WARP and his best five-season peak WARP are averaged to produce the JAWS score, which is compared to the JAWS scores of all the enshrinees at his position. As a secondary measure, players' batting, fielding and pitching runs above average and above replacement are also compared accordingly.

The numbers have shifted slightly since the last go-round as Clay Davenport continues to refine his system, mainly to reflect the way defensive responsibilities have changed over the game's 135-year major-league history. While I still put in waaaay too many hours looking at spreadsheets and player cards to do this (including the entire battery life of my iBook on both coast-to-coast flights for my winter meetings trip), my task is much easier now that I've been able to work more directly with Clay. I thank him for his cooperation and wish that I'd figured out a year ago that all I had to do was ask. Oh well, file under "things to do while your shoulder mends and your dad and brother are skiing in knee-deep fresh powder while you sit here healing."

Back to the ballot, I found three hitters and three pitchers worthy of election to the Hall. Wade Boggs, with over 3,000 hits, is the easy choice. The rest are facing uphill battles and it wouldn't surprise me if none of them were elected this year. Two of them are pitchers I feel like slapping the heads of writers to get to notice (I've got some allies in that department), which is why I wanted to see this published before the holidays. With the breadth of BP's reach, I hope that I might actually play a part in swaying somebody. We'll see if there are any surprises in the first week of January.

Oh, and one more thing concening BP: I've never been more proud to acquire a new email address.

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My head is spinning over the rumors about the three-way supermegablockbuster which might bring Randy Johnson to the Yankees and send Javy Vazquez to the Dodgers. Anytime my two teams are involved in a trade it sets off a sway of emotions that's hard to sort out. That this one is still hanging in the balance only prolongs the dizziness. Some very quick thoughts:

• The Yankee fan in me would be elated to get Randy Johnson. He's a true difference-maker, one of the top pitchers in the game and of all time. Having him at the top of the rotation would make the Yanks' spending spree on Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright look a bit less risky, though still expensive. Acquiring Johnson while avoiding the dreaded Eric Milton signing would be gravy.

On the other hand, with the departure of prospects Dioner Navarro (catcher) and Eric Duncan (third base), I would be somewhat disgusted by the fact that even as a 35-year-old with a bum shoulder, I am now one of the Yankees' top ten prospects, somewhere between Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano.

• The Dodger fan in me would be relieved to be rid of Brad Penny and Shawn Green. Both are pricey (Penny is arbitration-eligible after making $3.725 mil, Green will make a whopping $16 mil) and questionable from an injury standpoint. The former is coming off of a nerve injury in his pitching arm which limited him to 11.2 innings after being acquired at the trading deadline. The latter had surgery to repair a torn labrum last winter; his power numbers have fallen considerably since he hit 91 homers in 2001-2002. Green has been rumored to be on the market all winter.

I would be bummed to see reliever Yhency Brazoban go. It's no secret I have a Yhency fancy; as a throw-in in the Weaver-Brown deal who wound up the setup man on a playoff team, he made an interesting case study to examine the strengths and weaknesses of my two favorite teams when it comes to developing talent. I last wrote about him in my first BP Triple Play.

With the transition to a new pitching coach and a return to the National League,
Javy Vazquez would give the Dodgers the potential ace they desperately need. That Vazquez had a disappointing second half in New York is well established; if he's healthy -- and he passed an MRI just after the season -- I'm going to guess he has better luck at his next stop.

While both of the Yankee prospects, Duncan and Navarro, have potential, neither is ready for prime time. Navarro likely needs at least another half-season in AAA if not a whole one. Duncan is probably two years away from anything meaningful, so the Dodgers will have to find a stopgap third baseman now that they've lost Adrian Beltre to the Mariners (about which I'm bummed, but not surprised).

The Beltre signing is rumored to be the reason this deal is on hold; the Dodgers have already shed 74 homers with the departures of Beltre, Steve Finley and Jose Hernandez in the past week. While shedding Green might meen a run at Carlos Beltran, their limited offense would still have some sizable some holes to fill.

• The Diamondbacks hater in me would be overjoyed to see the team get overpriced and somewhat damaged goods, and wish that Joe Garagiola Jr. was around when I was trying to shed an 1986 Camry so that I could move to New York City. On top of the insanity of the Russ Ortiz and Troy Glaus deals, this gives further opportunity for the rest of baseball to watch the Diamondbacks get kicked in the groin repeatedly, something they richly deserve.

I'll have more on this deal if and when it actually happens. I'm not banking on it actually going down, but it's sure to feed the Hot Stove flames for awhile.

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Back to the Yankees, the details of Jaret Wright's contract, which will be offically announced next week, are reportedly as follows:

Wright's two-year, $14 million contract will include a player option for the third year. The deal could still be for three years and $21 million, as it was initially, but Wright could opt out of the third year if he stays healthy in the first two.

If Wright misses 60 to 90 days with a major shoulder injury over the first two years of the deal, the Yankees could reduce the value of the third year to $3 million to $4 million.

If Wright is healthy and chooses to accept the third-year option, the value of the deal will be the original proposal: three years and $21 million.

This is surprising, as the Yanks don't usually do player options. Their contracts tend to come with club options and buyouts, most of which are usually invoked to stop the payroll insanity. But in light of the fact that Wright failed his first physical upon agreeing to a contract, this gives the Yanks a chance at a savings if he doesn't remain healthy, and gives Wright the chance to cash in if he does especially well.

Meanwhile, the team's deal with Carl Pavano is complete. It's four years, $40 million, with a team option for a fifth year at $15 million or a $2 million buyout (that's more like it). Pavano could become a free agent after four years if he reaches 200 innings in years three and four. Tall dollars for pitching.

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Finally, if you want to share in a good inside laugh at the Winter Meetings, check out this Flash animation by Ken Arneson, who begged to differ about the excitement level. Starring Burl Ives as Will Carroll, Elvis Costello as myself, Lou Ferrigno as Rich Lederer, and much more, with special appearances by Giants trainer Stan Conte, and the floating head of Bruce Bochy. I don't share Ken's view of the proceedings, but I can't stop laughing at his little piece of work.