The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Wednesday, December 01, 2004

 

Remaking the Yankees for 2005, Part III: The Market for Southpaw Starters

If you missed them, here are Part I and Part II of this series, with the latter containing the big chart of starters on the market.

Looking back at the list of free-agent and trade-bait starters, one of the first thing that stands out is the dearth of lefties (indicated with asterisks, as is the custom) and the, er, craptacularity of the ones beyond Randy Johnson who seem to be on the Yankees' radar. Of those nine southpaws, only four have dERAs appreciably better than the league average ERA (4.30 in the NL, 4.63 in the AL): Johnson, Glendon Rusch (who reupped with the Cubs), David Wells, and Odalis Perez. The two vaunted Oakland lefties, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder, straddle that AL league average, while Al Leiter, Eric Milton, and Shawn Estes are well above the NL average.

Johnson we've discussed previously. Boomer you know all about -- how his amazing control (5.05 K/W) and ability to work fast (to his fielders' delight) cover up for a subpar strikeout rate and a lack of conditioning. Even at 42 (which he'll turn in May), even with all of the headaches he brings, from reneging on handshake agreements to getting in brawls when he should be in bed, he's still not the worst idea out there. ESPN Insider reports that six teams, including the Padres, the Yankees, the Dodgers and the Phillies are all interested. At last report the Phils have improved what was originally a $5 million offer.

As I wrote in a Baseball Prospectus Triple Play, I'm surprised that the 27-year-old Perez isn't drawing more interest. Young lefty pitchers who have averaged 201 innings over the last three seasons at an ERA 12 percent better than the league average, and with decent peripherals to boot... well, there aren't many of them on the market. He's shown glimpses of brilliance for the Dodgers, and pitched well in some big games down the stretch as well. But it's likely that his postseason shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals knocked him down a peg. Furthermore, concerns about his shoulder -- a stint on the DL with rotator cuff inflammation (though he still made 31 starts), and enough workload-related issues that Will Carroll red-lighted him as an injury risk -- may keep him there.

In the context of the starter market, the two Oakland lefties look like little more than LAIMs -- League-Average Inning Munchers -- with unimpressive strikeout rates, mediocre control, and a vulnerability to the gopher ball. Both have track records that show better days on their resumes, but it's certainly fair to wonder if their heavy workloads have caught up with them, Oakland's vaunted reputation for "prehab" or no. Zito has averaged 222 innings a year over the past four seasons, and while his strikeout rate regained a bit of lost ground, his control is really nothing to write home about, and his homer rate spiked up about 50 percent higher than his career average. Ick. He's been getting by in part due to extremely low BABIP numbers (.245 in 2002, .239 in 2003), but luck and defense caught up with him this past year, and he now looks like a far cry from the carefree Cy Young Award winner of 2002. Pass.

Poring over Mulder's stats, it's more of the same except for the shiny W-L record. Falling K rate? Check. Decreased control? Big check (his K/W went from 3.2 to 1.69 last year). Rising homer rate? Check. Injury concerns? Mulder was a mess in the mechanics department and was lacking velocity as well. His ERA after the All-Star break was 6.13. That may not spell injury, but it certainly hurt the A's, and I wouldn't touch him in a deal right now.

The two lefties who have been linked with the Yanks in rumors are two lefties that have been linked with the Yanks before -- both were products of the team's development system but were traded away. Al Leiter came up to the Yanks in 1987 and spent parts of three seasons in pinstripes, showing some promise but ultimately serving as trade fodder like so many other Yankee farmhands of that era (the more things change, the more they stay the same). Sent to Toronto for Jesse Barfield, he soon underwent elbow surgery, and it wasn't until 1993 that he made a real dent in the majors. He was a teammate of Kevin Brown's and Gary Sheffield's on the 1997 World Champion Florida Marlins, starting Game Seven of the World Series but geting a no-decision. During the team's post-championship fire sale, he was traded to the Mets in a deal which sent A.J. Burnett the other way.

After seven successful seasons in Shea Stadium -- where he averaged 30 starts a year and was under the adjusted league average in ERA each time -- he's become involved in a very public drama over the Mets declining his $10.2 million option. It's typical. The 39-year-old Leiter is intelligent and well-spoken -- he made a fine analyst in the postseason -- but his reputation for being a clubhouse lawyer and his media savvy make him one of those players whose situations always get played out in the papers. A poor man's Curt Schilling, perhaps.

If only he could pitch that well, he might be worth the gamble. Leiter put up a low ERA last year, but he averaged less than six innings per start, and along with a declining strikeout rate (from 7.6 in 2002 to 6.9 in '03 to 6.1 last year), he walked a ton of batters (5.03 per 9) and threw the most pitches per hitter (4.33) of any ERA qualifier. His low ERA would also appear to be a product of luck as well, as batters hit only .240 against him on balls in play. All in all, his peripherals scream that his chickens are rounding third and heading home to roost. At one point, the Yankees appeared convinced that Leiter was determined to return to Shea, and the Marlins reportedly put an offer on the table for $7 million a year. Now the Yanks are reportedly offering him a one-year deal between $5 and $6 million plus incentives. Pray he skips town.

If Leiter looks like a gamble, then Eric Milton looks torn from the Big Book of Bad Ideas. The team's first round draft pick in 1996, Milton was traded to the Twins in 1997 in the Chuck Knoblauch deal. Throughout his career, he's never really risen above the level of a LAIM; his career ERA+ is at 99, a tick below the adjusted league-average. His biggest problem is gophers; he allowed an astronomical 43 homers last year and 1.45 per nine innings over the course of his career. His strikeout rate is respectable -- it was actually the best of his career -- but he walks too many batters, and coupled with the long balls, that's a recipe for disaster.

Two weeks ago it appeared that the Yanks were headed for a deal with Milton in the range of two years at $6-7 million per. That urgency subsided long enough to offer some hope that reason would carry the day, but the wheels seem to be turning again even with the team's renewed interest in Leiter. Just because the Yanks scouted and drafted Milton is no reason they should be obsessed with him now. They made the right decision to trade him seven years ago, and those three championship and four pennants that Knoblauch helped them win should serve as a reminder no matter where the Lil' Bastard is these days.

The bottom line among these unmulleted lefties is that there isn't a single one who offers a whole lot of upside without a great deal of risk, all of which puts even more pressure on the front office to work out a trade for the Big Unit; right now the big sticking point is how much of Javy Vazquez's $34.5 million the Yanks would assume.

In any event, it appears we have three basic scenarios to fill out the Yankee rotation. In order of desirability:

1. Trade for Randy Johnson with a package that includes Vazquez: If the Yanks do this, their need to hook another big free-agent starter dissipates; they could get by with secondary signings. With Johnson and Mike Mussina at the top of the rotation, they can bring back Jon Lieber and Orlando Hernandez, perhaps take a flier on Odalis Perez (though they're more likely to wind up with Leiterfluid or Milton), and hold onto Kevin Brown until the market settles a bit. They'll have to sign Johnson to a one-year extension, which will likely not be the worst $17 million or so they spend in 2006 unless the wheels fall off. It will be another old rotation, and they'll still need to scare up an insurance starter once they jettison Brown.

2. Sign Pedro Martinez: While not as appealing as acquiring Johnson -- Martinez can't carry a team on his broad shoulders anymore -- this is probably a necessity if they can't swing a deal with Arizona. The bonus is that it would hurt the Red Sox, at least in the short term. To do this, the Yanks will need to go beyond the Mets' entry into the sweepstakes, a three-year, $38 million guarantee with a vesting option for a fourth year. Of course, they'll also need the Sox not to dramatically increase their offer, and for the two parties to decide not to go to arbitration. All of this is doable; in fact the Yanks are perfectly poised to swoop in should they desire, though they're certain to overpay for a pitcher whose long-term outlook isn't so hot.

With Martinez, Mussina, and Vazquez in the fold, the Yanks will need to find themselves a lefty, and again, I'll reiterate that David Wells is a far better choice than the two ex-farmhands. They could resign Lieber and Hernandez, figuring that they've got some insurance against balky backs and cranky shoudlers, or they could choose one of the two and save some money for the great Carlos Beltran chase while scaring up insurance elsewhere.

3. Scramble if they can't land their ace: If they can't get Johnson or Martinez, the Yanks will use smoke, mirrors, and cash to divert attention away from that fact. The danger in this scenario is that somewhere it becomes as much of a PR move as a baseball one; the Yanks have to come back and say, "See, we did get our man," and they're not going to impress anybody with the likes of a Jaret Wright or a Matt Clement as their shiny new toy. Call it a hidden cost of New York, that every move will get scrutinized to death by the dozens of wags who just love to pile on the Yanks. C'est la vie.

If it comes to this scenario, my money is on Carl Pavano. Though their strikeout rates tell the opposite story, Pavano is probably a better long-term bet than Wright from a makeup standpoint. The most recent Baseball Prospectus Triple Play had this to say about the two contrasting views of Pavano today:
[H]e is an excellent example of a player over whom scouts and statheads will clash, and his great 2004 will give the scouts more ammo. You might look at Pavano and see a guy who's been healthy and effective for a full year exactly once in his career, with a declining strikeout rate and a career year probably helped by a fluky low BABIP. I might look at Pavano and see a workhorse with the cojones for big-game success and some serious heat that he can bring again and again.

This writer will throw a dissenting voice into the mix and say that there is something to what the scouts see. Some pitchers are just late bloomers, and don't deserve to have their history held against them too strictly. Unfortunately, the attention being lavished upon Pavano right now all but guarantees that whichever team signs him will fall prey to the Winner's Curse.
Should the Yanks desire Pavano, they'll obviously have to outbid several teams to get him, including the Red Sox and the spend-happy Orioles. If they fail to net that particular fish, a late run at Brad Radke would make sense given that the Twins are scrambling to adjust their bid (3/$20) in the wake of the Mets' drastic overpaying for Kris Benson.

If they sign Pavano, they'll have Moose and Javy on board, of course. The lefty Wells would make the most sense in this context, as he's the only available southpaw who's anything close to a front-of-the-rotation type, and without a true ace, having one more of those wouldn't hurt. Again, they could do Lieber, Hernandez, or both here.

I should add that while I've put the decision on the Yanks' shoulders regarding Lieber in all three cases, he may choose to go elsewhere given the way they've handled his situation. Considering they've pencilled him in for about $6 million a year, not signing him gives them some money to play with, and they could plausibly net Wright with that kind of scratch. Failing that, there's a whole mess of options which could be cheaper and perhaps less desirable, but not entirely without merit.

For example, I haven't even broached the three available starters -- Cris Carpenter, Woody Williams, and Matt Morris -- who helped take the Cardinals to the World Series. Journeyman-turned-ace-turned-bystander Carpenter had a heck of a year before a biceps strain sidelined him for October; concerns that the injury could actually be similar to Brad Penny's -- a nerve irritation -- may cloud the issue. Williams has had an unheralded run in St. Louis, and though he's 38, he could probably provide something Lieberesque at the back of the rotation. Morris is only 29 but he's been on the decline for four straight years, and I wouldn't go there.

Anyway, expect the Johnson/Martinez dramas to hang over our heads for another couple of weeks, first past the December 7 arbitration deadline and then likely into the Winter Meetings of December 10-13. The Yanks may hedge by signing either Milton or Leiter before then, which is sure to leave us banging our heads in distress until the big news comes down.

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