The Futility Infielder

First off, a belated but nonetheless heartfelt Happy New Year to all of my readers. I returned from Milwaukee last night after being more or less at the center of attention for the past few days, with a birthday dinner, a bachelor party, and an engagement party broken up only by New Years' Eve and lots of wedding-related projects, none of which left me much time to think about baseball, let alone write.

Not that I had any idea what the hell was going on anyway. As wonderful and attentive as my future in-laws may be, they're practically off the grid as far as what I do is concerned -- no home computer, no cable TV, not even home delivery of a newspaper; do people still live like this? So I was about a day late in finding out that the Yankees and Diamondbacks had sifted through the ashes of the 10-player blockbuster which collapsed upon the Dodgers' withdrawal to reach an agreement on a deal that will put Randy Johnson in the tallest set of pinstripes ever. The Yanks will give up pitchers Javier Vazquez and Brad Halsey, as well as catching prospect Dioner Navarro, and about $9 million in exchange for Johnson. The Dodgers have similarly salvaged their own corner of the deal, agreeing to send outfielder Shawn Green and $8 million (half of Green's 2004 salary) to Arizona in exchange for Navarro and a pitching prospect (perhaps Halsey), assuming the previous deal goes through. If the Johnson deal should fall through (and with physicals and the negotiation of an extension for the Unit, who knows), the Dodgers would receive either another catching prospect, either Koyie Hill (sent to the desert in the Steve Finley deal) or Chris Snyder.

Where to begin with all of this? My circuits tend to overload anytime the Yankees and the Dodgers are involved in the same deal. I touched base on this one a couple of weeks back, spent a fair bit of time outlining the Dodger angle in my recent Prospectus Triple Play, and already had to scrap one lengthy post that expired like a carton of unsold milk. So I'll keep this brief, fast-forwarding through the drama that had Yankee Hatchet Man/President Randy Levine (I swear that's his true job title) and an unnamed Arizona executive (likely GM Joe Garagiola Jr.) ripping Dodger GM Paul DePodesta for "reneging" on their previous agreement, and then resident ESPN yenta Peter Gammons spinning the story back in the Dodgers' direction, pulling out because of their "respect" for Javy Vazquez's family values. Whatever.

In the initial ménàge à trois, the Yanks would have given up third base prospect Eric Duncan instead of Halsey, and received Dodger pitcher Kaz Ishii and $3 million. So for a net of $12 million cash flowing westward and the loss of a marginally promising lefty, they get to keep Duncan, the team's top prospect according to Baseball America, and they don't have to figure out what to do with Ishii, whom they would have either made $2 million for his enigmatic and erratic contributions (perhaps at the expense of, say, Tanyon Sturtze) or been traded elsewhere. Duncan's 20 years old and might see Double-A this year; his weighted mean PECOTA projection (via Baseball Prospectus) is at .241/.311/.410, so he's still a ways away from being a productive major-leaguer. While it's great that the Yanks get Johnson to capstone their remade rotation, the cost of keeping Duncan -- who now becomes their primary midsummer bargaining chip if they need one -- is a steep one.

In the supermegablockbuster, the Dodgers would have given up starters Ishii and Brad Penny and reliever Yhency Brazoban as well as Green, while they would have received Duncan, Navarro, Vazquez, and Arizona reliever Mike Koplove. Vazquez would have been a pricey upgrade on Penny, had the Dodgers actually kept him, something not at all clear given the flurry of rumors regarding a subsequent deal to the White Sox. Javy's got a higher upside and he's likely healthier than Penny, who was limited to 11.2 innings by a nerve injury after being acquired in the Paul Lo Duca trade. But as a flyball pitcher (0.85 g/f ratio last year), he likely wouldn't have benefitted much from Dodger Stadium, especially in its radically reconfigured state. The rumblings that he could have been unhappy enough to demand a trade next year (as is his right as a player traded in the middle of a multiyear deal) and perhaps opt out of the final two years and $25 million of his contract (his right if the demand was not fulfilled) were enough to make him too hot for the Dodgers to handle.

Meanwhile, keeping Brazoban is a nice little victory, though the sidearming, groundball-inducing Koplove would have had his uses for L.A. Navarro is clearly the lesser of the two prospects from the Yanks' chain. He's closer to major-league ready than Duncan, and the Dodgers do have a hole at catcher that you could drive a truck through if you don't mind running over a pair of guys who couldn't even make it across the Mendoza Line last year (and you shouldn't). But I see a lot more Einar Diaz (who's about his size) than Victor Martinez (one of his 2005 PECOTA comparables, I'm told, on a .249/.307/.371 projection) in Navarro, and that's not a compliment. But he's got youth in his favor, and he's still a significantly better prospect than either of the other two catchers the Snakes might substitute in the deal.

In the rotation, keeping Ishii is a necessary step when your five-man rotation is otherwise Penny, Jeff Weaver, prospect Edwin Jackson, and swingmen Wilson Alvarez (fragile lefty) and Elmer Dessens (nondescript righty named Elmer, for crying out loud). Shedding Green's salary is a plus for the Dodgers if they spend the money on pitching (Derek Lowe, a groundballer with a strong postseason resume but a whopping 5.42 ERA last regular season, is their reputed target) and can put some faith in the relatively economical and still-promising Hee Seop Choi at first base. Otherwise, they're just jettisoning one of their more productive (if expensive) hitters and another significant chunk of change in favor of a couple of prospects whose value has been significantly inflated by a grand tradition of pinstriped puffery.

So it's not at all clear that either the Dodgers or the Yankees have improved their lot over the deal which fell through nearly two weeks ago. The Yanks get a difference-maker in Johnson, but they've yet again put their eggs in the basket of a very old hen (Roger Clemens, David Wells, Kevin Brown...). They get to keep their prize in Duncan, but at the cost of eating a lot more of Vazquez's contract. The Dodgers eliminate some risk in their rotation, but still leave it looking nothing like that of a playoff contender, and the Navarro/Green angle is a salary dump that makes it look as though they, not the Diamondbacks, are the ones already playing for 2006.

But just as the three-team deal required a mountain of paperwork before it could be officially consummated, so do these two deals promise to keep the fax machines busy in New York, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and wherever Bud's toupée currently rests. In this never-ending epic saga of perpetual infinity (like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim), it's likely we haven't seen the last twist or turn, nor have we read about the last hand being wrung. Stay tuned.

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Meanwhile in Yankeeville, the Bronx Bombers have lived up to their recidivist ways by re-signing Tino Martinez to a one-year, $3 million deal. The 37-year-old first baseman, who played for five pennant-winning Yankees teams from 1996-2001, always left me considerably more lukewarm than the dyed-in-the-wool Yankees fans thanks to his incredible shrinking OPS. But he enjoyed a reasonably productive season in Tropicana oblivion (.262/.362/.461, good for a .280 EQA, his highest since 1998), he's still good with the leather (six runs above average per 100 games, according to BP), and he gets the decaying corpses of Tony Clark and John Olerud off of the Bronx doorstep, so things could be worse, unless Jason Giambi replicates his 2004 form. In which case it will be one uncomfy and expensive summer in Yankee Stadium, and all the veteran herbs and spices which Tino brings to the Yankee clubhouse will be a poor substitute for his limitations.

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On a more positive and personal note, I'd like to thank everyone who made 2004 such a great year for me, both at this venue and at Baseball Prospectus, where every passing month finds another couple of my toes wedged in the door ("You want a toe? I can get you a toe..."). I'm not going to do the roll-call like I've done in prior years, but suffice it to say that I know who you are even if you don't, and I won't forget that as we continue on this journey.

As I round the corner and head towards the fourth anniversary of my starting this site, it's been a great ride, one that's taken me to some wonderfully unexpected places, and the new year promises to be every bit as rewarding and exciting. Much of that excitement -- opportunities to write in other venues, not to mention my impending nuptials (not until May) and travels -- may keep me from writing here as much as I'd like to, but one way or another, I'll be around, and I hope you'll stick around as well. Best wishes to all for a happy and healthy 2005.