The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Thursday, January 06, 2005

 

Clearing the Bases - Eat and Run Edition

A hail of bullets to give you folks a reading list while I plow ahead with an unexpected deadline (another BP thing) and scarf down some lunch, and then I'm back to work...

• The Hall of Fame voting results were announced on Tuesday, with two men getting enough votes for enshrinement: Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg. Boggs got 91.86 percent, and I swear that it feels like the other 8.14 percent all wrote articles to advertise their ignorance. Hey, when a .415 career OBP, the most times on base for eight consecutive years, and a higher WARP than the AL MVP six years in a row DOESN'T equal some measure of dominance that even a non-stathead could trip over on the way to finding his ass with a map and compass, I'll eat Tracy Ringolsby's hat.

Sandberg eked out the election by a mere six votes, but as I've argued before, he's a deserving candidate nonetheless. I had high hopes for Rich Gossage; Baseball Think Factory had a tally of published ballots showing that 43 of the 48 named him, a strong showing in what amounted to an exit poll. Alas, it was not to be, but Gossage did garner 55.2 percent, a 14.5 percent gain from the 2004 ballot, the second-biggest jump of any candidate (Sandberg's 15.0 percent leap was the biggest). In doing so, the Goose crossed the magic 50 percent rubicon, where every candidate save ol' Gil Hodges and four guys currently on the ballot -- Bruce Sutter, Jim Rice, and Andre Dawson being the other three -- has eventually been elected. Sutter polled at 66.7 percent, a significantly higher tally than Gossage, which is just wrong in my opinion.

Even more dismaying were the showings of Bert Blyleven (40.9 percent) and Alan Trammell (16.9 percent), both of whom I've argued are worthy. Trammell is a comparable candidate to Sandberg, and frankly, the Hall is a joke without Blyleven, who's probably one of the top 20 pitchers of all time. Fifth overall in strikeouts, 60 shutouts, and a near-unanimous reputation among players for having the best curveball in the game -- there's your dominance. and if that' s not enough, he had the two World Series rings as well.

I guess it's back to the drawing board for guys like Rich Lederer and myself, not to mention all of the other analysts who make intelligent cases for some of these deserving but unrewarded players. Joe Sheehan argues that it's time to expand the voting pool to "acknowledge the breadth of baseball knowledge in the 21st century," and I couldn't agree more.

• I just did a quick spot on the Hall results with Will Carroll for this week's Baseball Prospectus Radio. With any luck it will find its way online. Meanwhile BP's Nate Silver offers some amusing criticsm of my Jaffe WARP Score system in his piece today:
Truth be told, as much as I like Jay's work, I also think there is something to be said for gut-feel. A metric like JAWS tells you a lot about a guy's value, but it doesn't tell you quite as much about the shape of his career. JAWS applies what I would call the sausage method for assessing player value: you mush everything together into a nice, cylindrical package, add appropriate seasoning, and come out with what is hoped to be a tasty product. JAWS is, indeed, a very tasty sausage, and it's a heck of a lot more worthwhile than the spoiled cold cuts that most of the press is munching on. But it's still a sausage.
Hehhehe, fair 'nuf. At least it's not chopped liver...

• The Yanks not in on Carlos Beltran? Hey, I've been arguing for months that their payroll isn't unlimited, a sentiment that met with a fair amount of guffaws at the time, even from other Yankee fans. The heft of the pending Randy Johnson extension (two years, $32 million we're being told) and the ridiculous shower of coins bestowed on Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano have stretched the team's budget to the point where the Beltran contract won't fit.

Richard Sandomir of the New York Times has a look at the Yankees' financial situation and speculates that they may not be making any money. I know most Yankee haters will weep at that notion.

I see the Yanks' lack of action in the Beltran sweepstakes as a sign that they're pretty sure they won't be able to get any relief on the Jason Giambi contract (which still has over $80 million to go) and that they expect to eat just about all of Kevin Brown's $15 million as well. The recent report (damned if I can find that link) that Brown took the ball in Game Seven of the ALCS despite Joe Torre's admonishments not to do so if he wasn't physically up to it are likely the last nail in his coffin as far as any future in the Bronx is concerned.

• The new Dodger beat reporter, Steve Henson -- whom I met in Anaheim -- has an interesting piece on GM Paul DePodesta, who's been savaged endlessly by some of the dodger faithful ever since his controversial trade of Paul Lo Duca this summer. But DePodesta takes it all in stride, according to Henson:
Oftentimes the easy decision and comfortable decision is not the right one," DePodesta said. "You can come under an awful lot of criticism, especially in such a public role as this one. You have to stick to what you truly believe is right and at the end of the day hopefully you will be rewarded by the team's performance."

Sending off a good many architects of last season's National League West title team — Adrian Beltre, Shawn Green, Steve Finley, Jose Lima and Alex Cora — was part of the plan.
Thanks to Dodger Thinker Jon Weisman for bringing this article to my attention.

• Speaking of the Dodgers and thanks, a relatively new blog called The Fourth Outfielder has come to my attention recently, and it's said some nice things about me, so I'll tip my cap and return the favor. Tom Meagher has had some excellent analyses of the team lately, takes of the kind that are far off the beaten path. Here he checks in on the team's 40-man roster situation with an eye towards next year's Rule 5 Draft (that's thinking ahead). And his latest article questions some thoughts I put forth the other day on the team's preference towards ground-ball pitchers. Tom's got a load of data that it'll take me some time to digest, but it's definitely worth a look.

• Thanks to my new Prospectus Triple Play beat, I've spent a lot of time following the San Francisco Giants this offseason, and I've been corresponding frequently with Fogball blogger Tom Gorman, who's been an invaluable resource in the process. Tom took an excellent swing at analyzing the Giants' madness this offseason as they've stocked up on players well past their sell dates such as 34-year-old catcher Mike Matheny, soon-to-be 38-year-old shortstop Omar Vizquel, and 38-year old outfielder Moises Alou. As Tom notes, the Giants outfield's combined age -- with Marquis Grisson in center and Mr. Bigstuff in left -- is a creaky 116 years old. I suggested to Tom that the trainers put bedpans in the outfield gaps just in case, a joke that found its way into the article. (Yeah, I'll be here all week, two shows a night. Try the veal...)

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