The Futility Infielder

I'm pleased to announce a new feature on Baseball Prospectus, one that I will be handling on a weekly basis. It's called the Prospectus Hit List, and what it is, essentially, is a power ranking of all 30 teams, with some quick commentary. The first edition, which runs today, is based entirely on BP's PECOTA standings forecasta, which Nate Silver described in his article on the American League:

These standings are based on compiling the PECOTA projections for each team's rosters as listed in the most recent iteration of the team depth charts that are available on our fantasy page. The depth charts attempt to account for playing time over the course of the entire season, rather than just on Opening Day, which should provide an appropriate reward to teams with superior depth. The individual projections are transformed into team runs scored and runs allowed totals by means of a version of the Marginal Lineup Value formula, and the runs scored and runs allowed totals are transformed into wins and losses by means of Pythagenport. A final adjustment is made based on strength of schedule.

Silver's article on the NL numbers just went up today, though he provided me with a different iteration which paints a more dire picture of the Giants' hopes without Barry Bonds. His published numbers bracket the Giants' win totals at 87 wins for Bonds playing 85 percent of the time and 78 wins at 0 percent; the playing time estimate for the Hit List win total of 81 extrapolates to somewhere around 40 percent. I think it will be higher than that, but it's clear that any shot the Giants have at playing ball in October is contingent upon his timely return. In a tight division race, one or two wins could be all the difference in the world.

The next Hit List will run two weeks from today, and thereafter it will be a free weekly feature, pointing out trends and leading the way into other BP content. It's not a new concept, but I hope it's one our readers will enjoy. As my first shot at contributing to BP on a weekly basis, it should be fun.

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On the subject of BP, Will Carroll turned in a fine article last week that quite frankly has me a late-for-St.-Patty's-Day green with envy. Rather than focus strictly on injuries as is his specialty, Carroll observed a growing trend in roster management: the multi-position super-utility player in the tradition of Tony Phillips, with Chone Figgins as the best example today. Players like Figgins are a natural to combat both increased roster specialization (those godawful 12-man staffs, especially) and mitigate the effects of injuries on a team. Incidentally, Figgins is my choice for 2004 Futility Infielder of the Year, not that you'd know it since I've had plenty of other tasks on my front and back burners.

Writes Carroll of the trend:

In the past, the designation "utility player" was an almost derogatory term for a player who would probably never contend for a starting position, a nice way of calling a guy a bencher. Today, it's a logical reaction to 12-man pitching staffs. By having one player who can fill several roles, the bench becomes longer, making Figgins the 25th, 26th and 27th man on the roster on those days he's not starting.

The lack of flexibility this creates is apparent on a team like the 2004 Angels. The team dealt with a significant run of injuries, yet was able to keep players in their defined bench roles because of one factor: Chone Figgins. Figgins would play 92 games at third base, 54 games in center field, 20 games at second base, 13 games at shortstop, two games in right field and one in left field. Instead of being limited to the backup catcher (Jose Molina), infielder (Figgins), outfielder (Jeff Davanon, for the most part), and DH (a combination of players, led by Tim Salmon and whichever injured player needed to be off the field on a given day), the Angels in effect had a bench that was expanded by at least two players. Both Figgins and DaVanon are switch-hitters, making matchup management easier as well.

Good stuff. It will be fascinating to see whether Figgins, a 5'8", 160 pound waterbug who hit .296/.350/.419 last year, including 17 triples, can have another good season, and how other former superutilitymen such as Melvin Mora (the 2003 Futility Infielder of the Year) and Brandon Inge fare. In the grand tradition of Phillips, these guys are invaluable to their teams, and while they have their limitations, they're some of the more interesting players around.

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One final BP-related note to pass along. I've gotten word through the grapevine that Carlos Gomez, a/k/a Chad Bradford Wannabe, whom I interviewed last spring, has been signed by the Sioux Falls Canaries of the Northern League. Gomez had a rocky season last year with the New Jersey Jackals of the Northeast League, injuring a knee in the spring and being released after pitching only 13.1 innings. He's a fascinating study in how a player can take the lessons of Moneyball to heart in order to give himself a competitive advantage, great fun to interview and impossible not to root for. Here's wishing him nothing but the best as he resumes chasing his dream.

Labels: Carlos Gomez