The Futility Infielder

The latest Prospectus Hit List, my first in four weeks, is up today. It's a meaty one, as I fell prey to the temptation to give season-to-date evaluations at the one-third mark while reacquainting myself with all the teams, giving myself about twice as much work as normal. Only the patient hard work of the men behind the scenes enabled the piece to go up on time. Thanks to Ben Murphy for keeping the Hit List warm in my absence.

Topping the Hit List are the Orioles for the fourth week in a row thanks to the dynamic keystone duo of Miguel Tejada and Brian Roberts, not to mention a staff that's improved by about 3/4 of a run over last year thanks in part to pitching coach Ray Miller. Even the nomadic Bruce Chen, on his eight major-league team just shy of his 27th birthday, is outperforming every Yankee starter. Meanwhile the Yankees, currently in Milwaukee on a 12-game road trip from hell (or to hell, which is where their season has gone), are 16th. Yesterday my mother-in-law, a Milwaukee resident, left me a message that she was going to the ballgame. She said she'd try not to boo Gary Sheffield (she likely doesn't remember the youthful Shef's sins as a Brewer so much as she recalls the reaction when he came to town with the Dodgers, a game of which we attended), but if others around her started doing so, she might not be able to resist. Funny woman. As for the Dodgers, this seems like a good opportunity to catch up with them in greater detail as I did the Yanks the other day, so here goes...

No team got out to a hotter start this season than the Dodgers, who matched their best start in club history when they reached 12-2, and topped the Prospectus Hit List for the weeks of April 17 and April 24. That they did so without Eric Gagne and with a makeshift bullpen was part of their charm, and with Jeff Kent hitting like a house on fire, the early returns on crow -- as in eating it at GM Paul DePodesta's expense -- looked quite promising. Ridiculous rallies -- from down 5-0 in the first and 8-3 in the fourth to the Giants on April 12, from down 6-0 in the third to the Brewers a week later made the team seem like a logical extension of last year's division-winning comeback kids.

They soon leveled off, but when I left for my wedding, the Dodgers were two games ahead of the Diamondbacks, with a record of 20-12. Hee Seop Choi was on a tear and Yhency Brazoban, the converted former outfielder who was a throw-in in the Kevin Brown-Jeff Weaver swap with the Yankees, was 10-for-11 in save opportunities in the Goggled One's absence. Since then, however, the Dodger season has taken a turn. They've gone 10-15 since that point, dropping to third in the NL West, four games behind the Padres, who tore through May at a 22-6 pace, and a half-game behind the Snakes. This week's Hit List has them dwelling at #20.

What's gone wrong? Mainly, it's been injuries. The team has sent 13 players to the DL, with eight currently residing there: starters Wilson Alvarez (his second stint) and Odalis Perez, swingman Elmer Dessens and reliever Darren Dreifort (who wasn't expected back all season, as per his miserable history), catcher Paul Bako, third baseman Jose Valentin, and outfielders Milton Bradley and Jason Grabowski. Others who've spent time there include starter Brad Penny, closer Gagne, leftfielder Jayson Werth, and infielder Antonio Perez.

The injuries have hit the rotation the hardest, with no fewer than nine pitchers making starts this year. As I said on the Hit List, the high profile gambles on Penny and Derek Lowe have paid off thus far; Lowe's been a horse, averaging 6.6 innings per start to the tune of a 3.35 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 3.47. Penny's averaged over six innings per start with a 3.67 ERA. But Odalis Perez was erratic before heading to the DL with shoulder soreness, Jeff Weaver's been his usual maddening self (a 5.65 ERA and only five quality starts out of 12), and the five hole has been a disaster, with Scott Erickson and Alvarez combining for an 8.10 ERA and 15 homers in 46.2 innings. Erickson, who last had a servicable season in 1999, is particularly cooked, walking two batters for every one he's struck out. Other than the fact that he's got "the good face" there's no earthly reason he's clogging a roster spot. Rookie southpaw Derek Thompson, straight from Double-A Jacksonville, has given the Dodgers two serviceable starts, and Rule V rookie D.J. Houlton has pitched in with a good one as well. Meanwhile, former top prospect--and make no mistake, that's former--Edwin Jackson is currently sporting an 8.08 ERA in Triple-A Las Vegas, with only one more strikeout than walk. Eeesh.

Even with the return of their ace closer, the bullpen has fallen on hard times. Alvarez was successful in relief, Brazoban and Duaner Sanchez have had good seasons thus far, but Giovanni Carerra, who's appeared in 26 games thus far, has been overexposed, and several of the human interest stories--sidearmer Steve Schmoll, Japanese League vet Buddy Carlyle--who rounded out the pen have been blown clear to Las Vegas. One who hasn't is Houlton, who's put the Dodgers in a tough spot. The scouts like him, and PECOTA thinks he's ready, projecting him for a 4.71 ERA. But his overall performance, featuring a 6.04 ERA and about four walks per nine innings, doesn't really merit a spot on the roster, yet the team's hands are tied; they'd have to send him back to Houston rather than down to Vegas.

The pitching hasn't been particularly helped by the defense; the team's Defensive Efficiency Ratio of .691 puts them 11th in the NL, two points below the league average. With a strikeout rate that's only 9th-best in the league, that translates into a lot of additional base hits. Shortstop Cesar Izturis (105 Rate2, or five runs above average per 100 games according to Baseball Prospectus's fielding numbers), second basmean Jeff Kent (104 Rate2) and centerfielder Bradley (116 Rate2) have played well at key positions, but everywhere else, the Dodgers are giving runs away, particularly at third base (about which, more momentarily).

On the hitting side, the team has run hot (.276/.358/.450 and 5.48 runs per game in April) and cold (.260/.327/.389 and 4.29 runs per game in May), though as a whole they're averaging 4.89 runs per game, second-best in the NL. Kent went as frigid in May (200/.241/.330) as he was red-hot in April (.333/.457/.643), but fortunately, he appears to be back on a tear, 12 for 19 with three homers, three doubles and 10 RBI, eight of them in the last two games. He's at .288/.371/.534 overall, with 12 homers and 48 RBI (leading the team by 20 and third in the NL behind Derek Lee's 53), great numbers for a second-sacker.

Fellow free-agent signee J. D. Drew, who endured an 0-for-25 start, is up to .276/.403/.500, and Bradley was at .298/.345/.511 before a finger sprain sent him to the DL and Drew over to center, where he'd originally hoped to play when signed. Leftfield has been a problem, with Werth having returned only about two weeks ago. Substitute Rickey Ledee got off to a hot start, but has since cooled off, and Jason Repko hasn't really shown much; as a whole, Dodger leftfielders are hitting .252/.314/.394.

Choi enjoyed a nice hot streak that appeared to quiet the doubters for a few moments, but he's in the throes of a miserable 3-for-39 slump since May 18 and down to .245/.327/.417 overall. Fortunately, professional hitter Olmeido Saenz has filled in particularly well (.323/.396/.635) and has driven in 27 runs in 96 at-bats. Elsewhere Jason Phillips, acquired from the Mets for headache Kaz Ishii just before Opening Day, has shorn up the catching, and Cesar Izturis has turned into a bona fide leadoff dynamo (.321/.366/.396 and a league-leading 28 multi-hit games) as well as a dazzling shortstop.

Third base appeared to be headed for disaster, as Jose Valentin snapped both a 27-at-bat hitless streak and some knee ligaments in the same game. Neither aged Japanese import Norihoro Nakamura nor minor-league journeyman Mike Edwards could handle the hot corner, and even with hot-hitting Antonio Perez (.387/.472 /.516) now manning the bag, the Dodgers are living dangerously. As a team, their third-base defense has been 19 runs bellow average per 100 games, Perez himself 17 below. Yikes.

Manager Jim Tracy has done a very good job of mixing and matching his bench players under the circumstances, indlucing finding at-bats for the red-hot Saenz. He's gotten exceptionally good performances from the pinch-hitters, who are batting .272/.330/.370, which is excellent by the lowly standards of pinch-hitters. Ledee is 6-for-11 in that role, Edwards 4-for-5.

As a whole, the Dodgers have shown that when they get hot, they can be the best team in the league. With the Giants meandering without Barry Bonds and looking to have worse troubles with ace Jason Schimdt, the Padres cooling off after their hot May and lacking much of a rotation beyond Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton, and the Diamondbacks using smoke and mirrors (a -37 run differential despite their 30-27 record), the division is still ripe for the picking. But they'll need some better luck in the health department and some help from DePodesta if they're going to win it.