Got a question I thought you might have some thoughts about. I figure that Maddux, Johnson, Pedro and Clemens are sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers. And I also figure that Glavine and Mariano will get there too.In the midst of the Yankees' drubbing by Toronto, it seemed a better use of my time to research for a more definitive answer than a quick off the cuff response, so I broke out my JAWS gear. First off, I have to commend Alex for correctly identifying the top nine active starting pitchers according to the system; he almost certainly did so without scouring their Baseball Prospectus figures, but he didn't miss one. Here are the nine, updated through yesterday (so leaving aside Mussina's drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays), along with some average JAWS scores for Hall of Fame pitchers:
1. Do you think T. Hoffman will?
2. Of the remaining starters with a legitimate shot now how would you rank the following pitchers: Mussina, Boomer Wells, Smoltz, Schilling and K. Brown (and is there anyone else I'm missing?).
Age PRAA PRAR WARP3 PEAK JAWSThe listed ages are as of July 1, which is the convention in dealing with baseball databases. Clemens just turned 43, but we're not too concerned about that here; he's a freak who could likely pitch another five years at some level of effectiveness, but not all of thes guys has so much in the tank. PRAA and PRAR are Pitching Runs Above Average and Above Replacement, respectively; the two give a good secondary measure of peak and career value. WARP3 is a player's career Wins Above Replacement Player total, adjusted for all-time, PEAK is his best five-consecutive year stretch, and JAWS is the average of those two numbers. The PEAK score skips over injury years in which a player misses more than 1/3 of a season; Pedro gets a mulligan for 2001, and Schilling, whose peak runs from 2000-2004, would get one for this year if his 2006 is better than his 2000 score of 7.2.
Roger Clemens 42 637 1787 187.5 53.9 120.7
Greg Maddux 39 471 1535 159.3 57.5 108.4
Randy Johnson 41 442 1336 130.7 49.9 90.3
Tom Glavine 39 290 1255 125.2 42.0 83.6
Pedro Martinez 33 417 1036 106.2 56.2 81.2
Mike Mussina 36 304 1084 112.2 43.0 77.6
Kevin Brown 40 279 1084 107.4 45.7 76.6
John Smoltz 38 295 1019 102.0 38.2 70.1
Curt Schilling 38 301 1020 94.0 42.9 68.5
David Wells 42 142 957 94.0 33.2 63.6
Avg HOF Pitcher 205 964 95.1 43.1 69.4
BBWAA HOF Pitcher 260 1174 114.9 46.9 80.9
VC HOF Pitcher 137 705 70.7 39.6 55.1
ClemensI'm banking Martinez and Mussina will surpass Glavine, who at 39 is striking out 3.87 hitters per nine innings, a rather unsustainable rate. Brown is done, and Smoltz likely doesn't have another 22 WARP in him (needed to add 11 JAWS points to top the higher average). Of course, none of this takes into account awards or postseason performance. I'd imagine Smoltz, who won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring, and Schilling, who has two World Series rings, have enough hardware to get the call from the writers, Brown, with one ring and no Cys, does not. Mussina might get his candidacy downgraded over the fact that in all likelihood he'll have neither a ring (you'd have to be naive to assume otherwise at this juncture) nor a Cy to show for his effort.
Maddux
Johnson
Martinez
Mussina
Glavine
----------BBWAA Average
Smoltz
Brown
Schilling
----------Overall Average
Wells
June 2001 July 2001 August 2001 September 2001 October 2001 November 2001 December 2001 January 2002 February 2002 March 2002 April 2002 May 2002 June 2002 July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002 November 2002 December 2002 January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010
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