The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Saturday, October 29, 2005

 

Clearing the Bases -- 108 Days Until Pitchers and Catchers edition

The curtain came down on the 2005 season rather abruptly, with the White Sox sweeping the Astros 4-0 in the World Series and claiming their first World Championship since 1917. Despite the sweep, it was a riveting if not particularly well-played series, with the four games decided by a total of six runs, and three of the four with the winning run scored in the eighth inning or later. The depth and dominance of Chicago's pitching staff, coupled with some key gaffes by Houston manager Phil Garner, turned out to be the difference in the series.

With only 34 runs (20-14 Chicago) scored total (4.25 per team per game), this was a relatively low-scoring series, as predicted. The six run differential ties a record set by the 1950 Yankees and Phillies, according to All-Baseball.com's Christian Ruzich, and based on the percentage of half-innings where the score was close, this year's series can claim the title of the closest sweep. Converting Ruz's data into a table:
    --2005--   --1950--
RD Inn Pct Inn Pct
0 38 47 27 37
1 27 33 30 41
2 13 16 10 14
3+ 3 4 6 8
RD is run differential, Inn is the number of half-innings ending with a given differential, and Pct is, of course, the percentages of same. Despite the closeness and the presence of teams from the third- and fourth-largest cities in the country in this series, it was in fact the lowest-rated World Series ever, down 30 percent from last year. Pundits may say that's because neither team had a nationwide following the way the Yankees or Red Sox do, but I prefer to look at it as a referendum on Fox's bombastic presentation, particularly in regards to the Tim McCarver-Joe Buck tandem of announcers, who could choke to death on their own tongues without being mourned by anyone beyond their mothers. There's already a website devoted to shutting up McCarver, and I'll note that the domain ShutTheBuckUp.com is still up for grabs.

I made it through the four games and avoided most of McC&B's inane patter with the help of my trusty Editor-in-Chief, Mr. TiVo Remote. If I missed a few battles over the strike zone and gave away the outcomes of too many payoff pitches, I also saved myself an average of 90 minutes a night, about half of which was commercials. As I've said before, "TiVo: any TV without it is broken."

The moment of truth for the Astros came in the ninth inning of Game Three. After Orlando Hernandez walked Chris Burke with one out, the young speedster worked his way around the bases via a throwing error by El Duque and a straight steal of third. Houston's next two batters were Craig Biggio and Willy Taveras, both of whom, as we heard a million times this fall, are excellent bunters and also co-starring in Prison Break, the new Fox sitcom (wait...). But for all of the emphasis on bunting and fundamental baseball and the glory of the bleeding sacrifice (not this kind), the two Astros never tried to lay one down. El Duque walked Biggio on four pitches, then Taveras, who slugged all of .341 on the year, took two wildassed swings as though he were trying to qualify for next year's Home Run Derby. He struck out, predictably enough, and after Lance Berkman, the team's best hitter, was intentionally walked to load the bases, Morgan Ensberg, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat during the series, whiffed to end the threat. That failure to bunt, coupled with the Astros failure to hit at all with men on base after Jason Lane's game-tying double in the previous inning, was the death knell. The 'Stros went 0-for-30 with runners on base following Lane's hit, and had 14 straight doughnuts on the scoreboard to show for it. Feh.

Throughout the series, Garner got the pants managed off of him by Ozzie Guillen, from letting the unfit Jeff Bagwell eat up outs as the DH in the first two games to tapping the wrong reliever in Game Two and watching Paul Konerko collect a grand slam because of it, to watching Roy Oswalt cough up a four-run lead via a 46-pitch fifth inning in Game Three (Torquemada would have been proud), to failing to play for one run when the season was riding on that run. That doesn't even include the manner in which he showed up his own team in the aftermath of Tuesday's 14-inning epic. As Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote:
And what does their manager, Phil Garner, do in the first moments after the White Sox punched them in the gut by beating them in the 14th inning of Game 3, 7-5?

He rips his team.

..."It's embarrassing to play like this in front of our hometown."

"I'm really ticked off."

Way to bail on your team, Mr. Manager.

Not once did he credit the Chicago pitchers, especially the relievers, for holding his hitters to a 1-for-33 showing after Jason Lane hit his home run that wasn't in the fourth inning. (The umpires blew another call. Please label it as evidence No. 463 that the commissioner of baseball needs to conduct a full review of postseason umpire assignments as soon as this World Series is over.)

Not once did the manager accept any blame or responsibility himself. But remember, this is a guy who showed up Brad Ausmus in the 10th inning by throwing a public fit when Ausmus flied out on a pitch when Orlando Palmeiro had second base stolen. And it's the same guy who showed up his entire team by flinging a chair against the dugout wall when Geoff Blum hit his game-breaking home run in the 14th.

Way to show you're in control, skipper.
Ouch. One BPer observed that Garner was about 0-for-25 in getting his own players to talk to him on the bench during Game Four. As the baseball fan Leo Tolstoy once told me as we downded shots of of off-brand vodka during a seventh-inning stretch, all unhappy teams are unhappy in their own way.

Which brings us to the happy team on the other end of the equation, the White Sox. No, they're not a great team, the 99 regular-season wins notwithstanding. But the 16-1 streak they pulled off dating back to the final week of the season was a truly great run, and Guillen and his staff kept their squad fresh and loose through some long October layoffs. Guillen stayed out of the way of his lineup, leaving it essentially unchanged throughout the postseason with the exception of those extra frames in Game Three, and he pulled all the right levers in his bullpen without turning into Tony LaRussa. He's now the manager of a World Champion team, and my hat's off to him.

But for all of the talk about the Sox' small-ball tendencies, it's the home runs that were decisive. As Joe Sheehan points out, 32 of their 69 October runs were scored via homers, an even higher percentage than in the regular season, when they ranked fourth in the majors. Looking back to Guillen's stated desire for a faster, more fundamentally-based speed-and-defense team at the outset of the season, Guillen apparently understood -- either objectively or, more likely, intuitively -- that U.S. Cellular Field's underplayed reputation as the majors' most homer-conducive ballpark meant that the longballs would take care of themselves. Having a broader skill set to draw upon would strengthen the team, making it able to win many different ways. I'm not sure how much stock I can put in that idea, but with a World Series trophy under Guillen's arm as I speak, that's what I'm selling. Congrats to the White Sox, the 2005 World Champions.

• • •

Back here in Yankeeland, the biggest piece of the offseason puzzle has fallen into place. General Manager Brian Cashman has decided to stay, agreeing to a three-year, $5.5 million deal that comes with verbal assurances (perhaps worth the paper they're written on) that he's at the top of the food chain when it comes to baseball decisions, with the exiled Gene Michael hopefully back in the picture and George Steinbrenner's Tampa goons taking a back seat. As a symbolic gesture, the team's first organizational meeting of the winter will be held in New York, Cashman's turf, not Tampa, Steinbrenner's. As the New York Times reported:
[W]hat it symbolizes means everything to Cashman. Though it is not spelled out in his contract, Cashman said that he received an understanding that he, and only he, would sit atop the chain of command in the Yankees' fractured baseball operations department.

"I'm the general manager, and everybody within the baseball operations department reports to me," he said. "That's not how it has operated recently."

Cashman said that Steinbrenner and the rest of the Yankees' upper management - including the general partner Steve Swindal, the president Randy Levine and the chief operating officer Lonn Trost - supported him.

The in-fighting below him made last season miserable, Cashman said.

"There's been some splintering off that's caused a lot of animosity and taken our focus away from our opponents and created opponents among ourselves," he said. "That, obviously, was not a good thing."

Cashman was referring to Steinbrenner's lieutenants in Tampa, whose suggestions often led to roster moves that undermined Cashman's authority. Privately, Cashman longed for the chance to have as much autonomy as his peers, which is why he nearly left the only organization he has known.

...Cashman could have sought another job and probably gotten one. But he said the Yankees now seemed committed to working cohesively. That was the message he heard in negotiations with Swindal, who is Steinbrenner's son-in-law and has been named as his successor.
Whether the Steinbrenner/Swindal message gets carried through remains to be seen, but hallelujah for the recognition that the current dysfunctional state of the front office was to the detriment of the team. Admitting you have a problem is the first step in solving it.

Hats off to Cashman for a well-played hand. Despite the fact that he's been with the organization for 19 years, the threat to leave and take a job with the Phillies, the Nationals, the Dodgers (who appear poised to fire Paul DePodesta, a sermon for another day), or another team was palpable. Instead Cashman used his leverage to extract a rare commitment from the Yankee brass, acquiring more clout -- and with it more accountability -- to go with his bags of money. "The buck should stop here," he appears to be saying, and while we all know where the buck really stops in the Yankee org, at least we know it won't be with Bill Elmslie and Billy Connors. It won't be an easy offseason for the Yanks, but with less potential for mistakes of Womackian proportions, it's likely to be a more productive one.

• • •

The list of eligible free agents includes 13 Yankees, not counting Hideki Matsui, whose three-year contract is up but who with less than six years of major-league service, isn't free to negotiate with other clubs: Kevin Brown, rhp; Alan Embree, lhp; John Flaherty, c; Tom Gordon, rhp; Matt Lawton, of; Al Leiter, lhp; Tino Martinez, 1b (pending club option); Ramiro Mendoza, rhp; Felix Rodriguez, rhp; Rey Sanchez, ss; Ruben Sierra, dh; Tanyon Sturtze, rhp (pending club option); Bernie Williams, of.

The only one Yankee fans should give a rip about going forward is Gordon, who may be more interested in resuming his job as a closer and if so, should be patted on the butt and sent on his merry way as well. Williams will likely wind up awkwardly wearing the garish colors of some other franchise as he daydreams his way into retirement. Given Joe Torre's unshakeable loyalty to Williams in the face of all evidence of decline (.258/.350/.406 with below-average defense over the last three years), not to mention mental lapses such as the busted hit-and-run in Game Five of the Division Series against the Angels, that's for the best. Otherwise, even if he displaced Sierra as the go-to guy off the Yankee bench, Williams would continue to suck up at-bats better meant for more able hitters. RIP, #51.

• • •

My first Baseball Prospectus chat, originally slated for October 19, has been rescheduled for Thursday, November 03 at 1:00 PM Eastern. I'd love it for my readers to submit questions ahead of time if they can't make the chat -- Yankee, Dodger, JAWS, DIPS, Mind Game, whatever. Bring 'em on and I'll take my best shot at answering your queries.

As for the rest of the offseason, my next task is to turn my attention towards my contributions to Baseball Prospectus 2006. I'm going to make an effort to keep up some of the winter staples at FI.com, such as my DIPS-infused free-agent pitcher roundup, but the paid work has to come first. I'm going to try to keep with more frequent and shorter entries here to compensate for the business elsewhere, but that's a pledge I've made before with little success. Here's hoping I can do better this time around.

Comments: Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]





<< Home

Archives

June 2001   July 2001   August 2001   September 2001   October 2001   November 2001   December 2001   January 2002   February 2002   March 2002   April 2002   May 2002   June 2002   July 2002   August 2002   September 2002   October 2002   November 2002   December 2002   January 2003   February 2003   March 2003   April 2003   May 2003   June 2003   July 2003   August 2003   September 2003   October 2003   November 2003   December 2003   January 2004   February 2004   March 2004   April 2004   May 2004   June 2004   July 2004   August 2004   September 2004   October 2004   November 2004   December 2004   January 2005   February 2005   March 2005   April 2005   May 2005   June 2005   July 2005   August 2005   September 2005   October 2005   November 2005   December 2005   January 2006   February 2006   March 2006   April 2006   May 2006   June 2006   July 2006   August 2006   September 2006   October 2006   November 2006   December 2006   January 2007   February 2007   March 2007   April 2007   May 2007   June 2007   July 2007   August 2007   September 2007   October 2007   November 2007   December 2007   January 2008   February 2008   March 2008   April 2008   May 2008   June 2008   July 2008   August 2008   September 2008   October 2008   November 2008   December 2008   January 2009   February 2009   March 2009   April 2009   May 2009   June 2009   July 2009   August 2009   September 2009   October 2009   November 2009   December 2009   January 2010   February 2010   March 2010   April 2010   May 2010  

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]