The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Monday, October 10, 2005

 

Grinding It Out

Back with the bullets because my gun is still loaded...

• After speeding through 18 innings of Astros-Braves, I was worried I might be as blasé about the night's Yankees game, much as I had been after watching the finale of the Sox^2 game on Friday. I was even more worried the Yankee Stadium field would be as sodden mess, though the weather cooperated on Sunday.

Still, I was happy to see Bubba Crosby in centerfield for the Yanks instead of Bernie Williams. With the Angels having hit 17-for-36 on balls in play on Friday night, something had to change, and with few other options at his disposal, Torre made the best move he could.

Though the sample size is limited, Baseball Prospectus' numbers show Crosby with a career Rate2 of 114 in centerfield, meaning that over 100 games, he comes out 14 runs above average. Of course, he's got only 53 appearances there, with enough innings that it translates to a mere 23 full games. Meanwhile Williams comes off at an even 100 this year (surprisingly average), but over the bigger picture is at about six runs below average per 100 games over the last four years, a period which included the unmistakable notification that Bernie was no longer the Gold Glover we Yankee fans had been blessed with. As Joe Sheehan recounted after watching Friday night's debacle:
In the top of the sixth inning last night, with the game tied 6-6, Adam Kennedy blooped a single to center field that pushed Darin Erstad to third base. The ball, skied high in the air, fell between Bernie Williams and Robinson Cano in short center field.

The play was remarkably similar to a ball Erstad hit in Game Four of the 2002 Division Series, one that fell in a similar spot, one that also came in the middle of a game-changing rally. That hit is burned in my memory as the moment I gave up on Williams as a center fielder.
Credit Torre for making a good call there.

• What a pitching matchup. The Angels were forced to scratch slated starter Jarrod Washburn due to a throat infection, and rather than bring back Game One starter Bartolo Colon on four days' rest, Mike Scioscia tapped Game Two starter John Lackey on three. Scioscia called Lackey the most adaptable of the Angels' starters; recall that he started Game Seven of the 2002 World Series on three days' rest and got the win, and he had done so in his final start of this season to align himself for the playoffs.

Colon's condition played a part. Even before the Washburn scratch was announced, the Los Angles Times reported that Colon was unable to answer the bell:
Upon learning Saturday's American League division series game against the Yankees was rained out, Manager Mike Scioscia summoned Bartolo Colon to his office and asked the Angel ace if he could start a rescheduled Game 4 tonight, on regular rest, on the day Colon was originally scheduled to start Game 5.

The answer might have surprised Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black: Colon, his lower back feeling a bit stiff and his arm not quite 100%, said he wasn't ready to go.
The Angels sent Colon back to Anaheim ahead of the team (perhaps a curious decision to put a guy with an ailing back on a cross-country flight, but let's assume he was flying first class and had ample room to stretch out his ample frame), with Scioscia saying later:
"Bart was still in town when we found out, going back to the hotel... He had plans to fly back to the West Coast last night, which he did. Bart needs the time. He'll be fresher and ready for Game 5 if we need to go that route. He's much better off in the slot we have him right now. Even though it's normal rest, the extra day could be important to Bart."
The dirty little secret lost in all of this is that Lackey is the team's best starter now. Since the All-Star break, he's put up a 2.57 ERA and struk out 8.36 per nine innings, while Colon's ERA was almost exactly a run worse at 3.55, with only 6.18 K//9. Lackey was filthy on Sunday night, holding the Yankees hitless until a loud Jorge Posada double with two outs in the bottom of the fifth.

But Shawn Chacon had matched Lackey zero for zero up to that point, showing no signs of the lack of command one might have expected from a finesse pitcher on 10 days' layoff. He wasn't afraid to rely on his breaking ball, even at the expense of Ball One, and he struck out four, including Vlad Guerrero, in his first time through the order. Through five frames, he'd allowed just a lucky infield single by Vlad and looked every bit the cool customer he's been since arriving from Colorado.

• The fourth inning might be looked at as the demise of the Angels if they lose this series. Jorge Posada, not exactly known for his defensive skills, threw out two overly aggressive Angel runners in the inning. First, he nailed speedster Chone Figgins, who led the majors with 62 steals, after Figgins reached on an error by Hideki Matsui, who appeared to lose his fly ball in the lights. The throw was good, but it looked as though Robinson Cano was a bit late with the tag. The rookie managed to sell the call, and the Yanks caught a break.

Then Guerrero reached on a play in which Cano nearly made into highlight reel fodder, fielding the ball in short right, spinning and throwing to first just a fraction of a second too late to catch Vlad. Chacon's first pitch to Garret Anderson bounced in the dirt and under Posada, hitting home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez in the foot. Miraculously, Posada managed to find the ball, whirl and throw a perfect peg down to second to impale the Impaler. It was a once in a lifetime play for Posada, and it ended the inning. For all of the talk about the Angels' aggressiveness, here it cost them dearly. On the series, Posada has now thrown out four out of five runners attempting to steal., effectively neutralizing the running game.

• In the end, the pitchers' duel turned into a war of attrition, with the more patient team winning out. The Angels drew just one walk, a four-pitch one by Juan Rivera to lead off the sixth. Rivera came around to score the game's first run on a Figgins double, and Figgins scored one pitch later on an Orlando Cabrera double.

But the Yanks answered back when Alex Rodriguez, otherwise rather ineffective in this series, worked a one-out walk, one of eight by the Yankees on the night. That was the beginning of the end for Lackey. Rodriguez advanced to second as Lackey turned Jason Giambi's bat into toothpicks (for what, the third time this series?), then Gary Sheffield, also very quiet thus far, promptly singled the run home on the first pitch to cut the lead in half, ending Lackey's night at a mere 78 pitches.

The magic of patience paid off against reliever Scot Shields as well. Shields extricated the Angels from the sixth with the lead and the Yankees required the miracle of Al Leiter getting a double-play in relief of Chacon to end the seventh with the score still 2-1. Cano reached on an infield single and after Bernie Williams flied out -- with the crowd chanting his name, knowing it might be his final game in pinstripes -- Posada drew a walk, his second of three on the night.

With two on and Bubba Crosby's spot up, Joe Torre tapped Ruben Sierra, not the most patient of hitters, to pinch-hit. Sierra, to his eternal credit, waited out Shield's first two offerings for balls, fouled one off, and then ripped a game-tying RBI single that showed why Torre would willingly carry his love child to term. Posada alertly took third on the throw home, while Cano came in standing up on a play that was too close to do so; memories of Jeremy Giambi failing to slide in Game Three of the 2001 LDS -- you know, "The Flip" -- came up like indigestion.

Posada taking third was HUGE. Derek Jeter followed by grounding to Figgins at third base and Figgins, handcuffed by the ball, took a fraction of a second too long to throw home. Posada slid in just under a tag made by Bengie Molina's mitt, which unfortunately for the Angels, didn't have the ball; Molina picked up the throw barehanded and didn't touch Posada's left leg until his right foot had already touched home. Though Molina and Scioscia argued, replays showed Marquez made the right call, and suddenly the Yanks had the lead.

Credit the Yanks for grinding out three runs on just four hits, and putting a two-run rally together with little more than chewing gum and bailing wire. It wasn't pretty, but it was pretty big.

• With that play, the Chone Figgins Magic Carpet Ride may have crashed. Figgins had made pivotal defensive plays at both third and centerfield in the two Angels' wins, but on this night, he could do no right. On Sheffield's RBI single, he failed to cut off Garret Anderson's throw, and the ball tailed up the first base line, making Molina's attempt to nail the vertical Cano in vain. On Jeter's grounder his throw was again just a moment too late and too far up the first base line for Molina to make the play. Angel defense: another myth crumbles.

• The sudden lead change only amplified Torre's decision to turn to Mariano Rivera to start the eighth; with the season on the line and the rest of the Yankee bullpen blowing chunks, he had no choice even if the Yanks had failed to regain the lead. With the lead, it was the best of all possible worlds to have the greatest closer in postseason history with the season on the line. Even in the face of perhaps needing Rivera for Game Five, Torre wisely followed the famous Leo Durocher line: "Never save a pitcher for tomorrow -- tomorrow it may rain."

Rivera looked a little shaky to start the eighth, falling behind 2-0 to Juan Rivera before drawing a groundout. He fell behind Steve Finley, but struck him out looking; Finley simply dropped the bat on a strike three that hit the outside corner as if to say, "No chance. No chance at all." He finished by getting Kennedy to ground out as well.

The Yanks didn't score in the eighth, but what they did do may well prove key for Game Five. Facing Kelvim Escobar, Cano, of all people, drew a one-out walk on a seven-pitch at-bat, then advanced to second on a wild pitch. Posada worked another walk on a six-pitch at-bat, and both runners moved up on another wild pitch. By the time Tino Martinez popped out, Escobar had thrown 35 pitches to get five outs. The Yanks patiently waited through his sliders, knowing that he relies on geting hitters to chase balls outside the strike zone. Not on this night.

Since returning from surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow and joining the Angels' pen, Escobar has not pitched on back-to-back days, and the times he's crossed 30 pitches, he's had at least three days' rest before returning. In all likelihood, the abortive Yankee rally may have taken him out of the equation for tonight. Much will be made of the fact that the Yanks have left too many men on base and wasted opportunities, but it's important to create those opportunities in the first place. The Yanks have outwalked the Angels 20-3 on the series, and if the vaunted Angel bullpen comes up short in this sereies, that will be a big part of the story.

So it came down to Rivera facing the top of the Angels' lineup. He got Figgins looking to end a seven-pitch at-bat, then drew a weak comebacker from Cabrera. This brought up Guerrero, capable of tying the game with one swing of the bat. But Rivera quicky got ahead 0-2, then battled four more pitches (two balls, two fouls) until the fearsome slugger grounded sharpy to Cano at second, and suddenly it was time to cue L.L. Cool J's "Going Back to Cali." It was his 36th pitch on the night, but you can guarantee that won't stop him from coming back in the same situation tonight.

• So now the two teams will play ball again some 13 hours after landing 3,000 miles away. Game One starter Mike Mussina, who remained on the West Coast while the rest of the team traveled back to New York, will presumably be the most rested player on either team, which should help the Yanks. Randy Johnson and Chien-Ming Wang will both be available to augment the shaky bullpen in front of Rivera. In an elimination game, it's all hands on deck, and as Johnson himself -- not to mention Roger Clemens yesterday afternoon -- has shown a couple of times, baseball theater absolutely does not get any better than when the ace starter comes out of the pen with the season on the line. Pass the popcorn. It's on, baby.

• Win or lose for the Yankees -- and I think the matchup favors NYY tonight, because their patience will help their cause -- my next responsibility is to crank out the ALCS preview for BP in time for Tuesday night's game (a Daily News report that Game One might slide back to Wednesday was later refuted by the same paper). If I don't offer up more than a cursory post to comment on tonight's result, rest assured that I'll be back soon enough.

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