The Futility Infielder

For just the second time in the last eight years, the American League Championship Series will proceed without the Yankees, who were eliminated Monday night with a dispiriting 5-3 loss to the Angels. The breaks didn't go their way, they made some key mistakes (including the manager, who stood idly by as Mike Mussina was bled to death by a thousand cuts), and as a result, they're as gone as the defending champion Red Sox.

I've scarcely had any time to mourn the Bronx Bombers' demise, however, working well into the night and back at it early this morning to complete my preview of the ALCS for Baseball Prospectus before the second dosage of caffeine wore off. The White Sox and Angels both share similar strengths (pitching, particularly in the bullpen, speed, and defense) and weaknesses (offense, having drunk an extra large-glass of One-Run Kool-Aid). In the first round, both beat teams that were much more patient offensively, setting up a series where we'll see a lot more balls in play than a Yanks-Red Sox matchup.

The preview is a premium piece, unlike a lot of my other work for BP, but here's a sampler plate:

Expect to hear a lot of hooey about how the success of the Sox/Angels' PutItInPlayism(TM) is a repudiation of the the patient WaitItOutNess(TM) of those more sabermetrically sound offenses. Or maybe it's how the Sox and Angels represent the triumph of man's natural impulses over the tyranny of spreadsheets and slide rules. Either way, thank your local deity that Joe Morgan won't be jabbering for seven games about the book that Billy Beane wrote.

...[H]ome runs are the dirty little secret of the Sox "speed and defense" mantra. Ozzie Guillen's small-ballers walloped 199 in the regular season, fifth in the major leagues, and a number that has a lot to do with the ballpark they play in. Over the past three years, U.S. Cellular Field (née Comiskey II) has yielded homers to lefthanded hitters at a rate that's 58 percent above average, tops in baseball and 26 percent ahead of the second-place Ameriquest Field (née The Ballpark at Arlington, home of the Texas Rangers). Over that same three-year span, righty hitters have homered at a rate that's 38 percent above average, just one percent behind pacesetting Houston's Minute Maid Park. Forget Colorado's Coors Field; U.S. Cellular is the top home run park in baseball for reasons that don't seem to have much to do with either altitude (Chicago's about 600 feet above sea level, which puts it in the top 10 among major-league cities but trailing most other midwestern venues) or dimensions:

    USCEL  ML AV   DIF
LF   330   331.3  -1.3
LCF  377   376.8  +0.2
CF   400   404.1  -4.1
RCF  372   377.4  -5.4
RF   335   329.1  +5.9

By this data, it would appear that everybody benefits from a shorter centerfield, with lefty hitters perhaps gaining a slight advantage with the shorter right-center power alley, one somewhat negated by the longer foul line adjacent. Perhaps weather (they do call it the Windy City) and a disproportionate number of times feasting on the young arms of the Royals and the Tigers might be factors as well.

...With a pair or strong pitching staffs and subpar offenses, this is likely to be a low-scoring, fast-paced series--at least as compared to the Boston-New York battles of the past two years. Both teams have pitching depth and managers who know how to used it. But the Angels have a couple of serious health questions that may have an early impact, while the White Sox are so much more rested that it will likely prove decisive. The Halos need to hope they can steal a game in Chicago as they catch their collective breath from a whirlwind first round, and that whatever gamble they make on a Game Two starter pays off. Still, with the rest, home field advantage, and the fewer question marks, one has to favor the White Sox. Chicago in six.

As much as it pains me to say this, I'm somewhat relieved that the Yankees lost, if only because I'm simply tired of staring that team's limitations in the face night after night. It's really no surprise that the $203 million kludgemobile didn't have a strong enough engine to drive back from Cali; the Yankee organization needs to let the lessons of this team's shortcomings sink in. I'll be back to pick at the scabs of the Yanks' defeat after I get some rest and check out tonight's opening game of the LCS.