The Futility Infielder

It's fair to say that my name is all over today's Prospectus Notebook column. A few weeks ago I strained my neck nodding in agreement with BP editor John Erhardt and assented to take on the occasional Notebook piece, which amounts to one-third of ye old Prospectus Triple Plays. With the Angels sorely neglected (they haven't been covered in that space since late January), I took up their beat, reprising my BP06 essay as I examined the early returns on their decision to move Darin Erstad back to centerfield to open up first base for Casey Kotchman and figure out where to play Chone Figgins.

Suffice it to say that the early returns haven't been so impressive, with the Angels offense sputtering along as the league's third worst, and Erstad and Kotchman both below replacment level where VORP is concerned. Just as I was preparing to send off the file, the news came in that Kotchman has been suffering from mononucleosis, which at least makes his struggles a bit more understandable.

I also noted the Angels' decision to recall Howie Kendrick, their hot second base prospect who came into this year having hit a scorching .359/.404/.555 in four minor-league seasons. With Adam Kennedy hitting well, Kendrick didn't figure to get more than a taste of The Show while Maicer Izturis recovered from a pulled hamstring. But the Angels have been giving him grounders at third base and first base, and as if on cue to shred my half-written piece, they started him at first for Kotchman last night. He went 0-for-4 and the Angels lost. They won today, and whaddaya know, Kotchman hit his first homer of the year, and Kendrick went 1-for-3 with a run and an RBI. Everything's coming up Milhouse.

The second team for this Notebook is the Rockies, and for their entry, Marc Normandin considers Todd Helton's JAWS case for the Hall of Fame. Helton's in his Age 32 season, so he's not there yet with regards to his career totals, but even letting the air out of his Coors-inflated stats, his peak score of 66.2 is slightly better than the JAWS standard for first basemen (63.0), and more importantly, can be raised by a season better than his 5.5 WARP in 1998.

For the career element, Normandin looks forward using Helton's PECOTA projection, which like all PECOTA projections is rather conservative, leaving him a bit short due to lessened playing time and eroding defensive abilities more than severe decline as a hitter. One thing in Helton's favor is that he's got more seasons left on his ridiculous nine-year, $145 million than PECOTA can project. Including a buyout on his 2012 option, Helton has five more years and $90 million left on his deal, whereas PECOTA pulls up short of projecting that final year. At the same time, Normandin notes the wave of first baseman who may raise the bar for enshrinement:

One other thing to consider when discussing the JAWS averages is the impact players like Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, and--just to throw it out there--Rafael Palmeiro will have on the numbers. Ranked by JAWS, Bagwell is the third-greatest first baseman ever, with Palmeiro coming in at #7, Thomas at #9, and McGwire at #11. All four players are above the current average, with Bagwell coming in well above at 106.5 JAWS, so the numbers will be affected, making the case for inclusion for some of the players up for debate pointless. Of course, the scary part to consider is that none of these four may make it to Cooperstown for various reasons, including injury, park-deflated numbers, or certain controversies that you may have heard about.

Good stuff, and free, to boot.