Last year I introduced the Combo Platter, the combined win expectancy-based rankings of teams' starters (via SNLVAR) and relievers (via WXRL). For the uninitiated, SNLVAR (Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement) tracks a starting pitcher's cumulative win expectancy based on the runs allowed (earned and unearned), innings pitched, and the base-out situation when he leaves the game. It looks at a starter's performance independent of the run support he receives from his offense and the job done by the relievers who follow him. See Derek Jacques' recent Toolbox article for more on the subject. WXRL (Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted) does for relievers what SNLVAR does for starters, accounting for runs, innings, and the base-out situations when a reliever enters and departs.I will say that I did enjoy watching Veras last night against Oakland. The guy can Bring It in the mid-90s, and he's currently sporting a 15/5 K/BB ratio in 17 innings, the kind of numbers that an eighth-inning guy needs to put up. At 28, he's no spring chicken, but the Yankees are clearly hoping the kid can pick up some of the slack. I'll drink to that.
Since the two figures are based on the same win-expectancy framework and expressed in the same currency, they can be combined. In Baseball Prospectus 2008, each pitcher's actual stat lines and PECOTAs include a category called SN/WX, which covers both without distinguishing where a pitcher does his work. Our sortables don't actually sum the two categories, but one can add them up in a spreadsheet in half the time it takes Jose Molina to run to first base if so desired. What I like about this report is that it shows which teams have both ends of their pitching staff in synch, and which are working at cross purposes. All stats through Monday:Team IPs FRAs SNLVAR IPr FRAr WXRL Total...Meanwhile, another interesting trend is taking shape in the AL East, where the Rays can legitimately claim the best pitching performance in the division. While you're lacing up your ice skates for a stroll around the Lake of Fire, note that their starters are neck-and-neck with Boston's thanks to the acquisition of Matt Garza and the continued development, high walk rate and all, of Edwin Jackson, who is 15th in the league in SNLVAR. Furthermore, their bullpen has bounced back from a grisly sub-replacement level showing last year to rank second in the league, with J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, and Troy Percival all in the top 20. Those relative no-names have combined to outperform Mariano Rivera and company as well as Jonathan Papelbon and friends.
ANA 406.0 4.05 7.9 166.0 4.25 5.8 13.7
OAK 383.2 3.99 8.2 184.1 3.29 5.1 13.3
CHA 403.1 3.92 8.2 169.0 3.20 4.6 12.8
TBA 375.1 4.54 7.3 190.1 3.45 5.4 12.7
TOR 423.0 3.89 9.4 173.0 3.49 2.8 12.2
CLE 394.2 4.04 9.4 171.1 5.03 1.7 11.1
BOS 394.1 4.21 7.4 188.2 4.60 2.4 9.8
BAL 361.2 4.88 5.3 199.1 3.79 3.5 8.8
MIN 364.0 5.58 2.9 210.2 4.35 4.3 7.2
KCA 379.2 5.18 3.5 186.0 4.07 3.2 6.7
NYA 344.0 5.38 3.2 223.0 3.95 3.5 6.7
SEA 365.0 5.45 3.5 197.2 4.52 0.4 3.9
DET 364.1 5.23 2.4 190.2 5.25 0.5 2.9
TEX 349.1 5.78 1.4 235.0 6.01 0.8 2.2
Boston's bullpen has been a mixed bag in front of Papelbon, with Hideki Okajima still top-notch but Mike Timlin clearly on his last legs and Manny Delcarmen struggling to live up to expectations. They've gotten good work out of the rotation, including some particularly inspiring patchwork from Justin Masterson, who has accumulated 0.9 SNLVAR in four starts while filling in for Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankees aren't working too well at either end, with a combined win expectancy that's tied with the Royals, never a good sign when it comes to a team's playoff aspirations. Their rotation is a disaster beyond Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, and Darrell Rasner; those three have accumulated 3.8 SNLVAR, while the rest of the pack (including Andy Pettitte, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy) has been a half-win below replacement level. Furthermore, the Yankee rotation is only a few whiskers ahead of the Rangers in terms of innings pitched per start at 5.375, about 0.4 innings per start behind the next team. That gap alone is the equivalent of 65 innings per year, the job description of one more quality reliever the Yanks don't have, and yet another illustration of why moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation makes sense. The going has been slow so far for Chamberlain's conversion (6 2/3 innings in two starts) but once he builds up the stamina to go at least 100 pitches, he should be able to help the team get deeper into ballgames.
Labels: Dodgers, Hit and Run, Hit List, Yankees
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