The Futility Infielder

Sorry, it's been slow around here given that my iMac G5 20" has been in its death throes for the past week, leaving me to write on my laptop and sweat bullets over the fate of my data, 99% of which was successfully retrieved (not to be confused with a hard drive of mine that recently failed, costing me thousands of MP3s). Writing my columns on a laptop isn't the easiest thing in the world given that I'm generally moving back and forth between dozens of open browser windows, Excel and TextEdit (I don't write in Word because I don't need to for the web). And that doesn't even begin to hint at the ergonomic distress induced by my current, hunched-shoulder mode of working. Hence the title of last week's Hit List ("Cramped Quarters") and this blog entry.

My other as-yet-unlinked article from last week explored the Red Sox's handling of two rookie pitchers, Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson. The former was touted as the game's best pitching prospect by some coming into the year; BP's Kevin Goldstein had him ranked #2 overall, ahead of Joba Chamberlain, on our Top 100 Prospects list. Yet he fell on his ugly mug - seriously, the guy looks like a meth freak -- and was farmed out last week after compiling a 2-9, 6.75 ERA record. The latter pitched reasonably well in nine starts earlier this year, then was sent to the bullpen when Buchholz returned from his first minor league stint and has since been limited to mop-and-bucket duty despite the Sox's shaky right-handed relief options. The bottom line is that whether he's in the bullpen or the rotation, Masterson should be more than the last guy on the staff. Interestingly enough, in the days since that article ran, he's pitched the seventh inning in two close ballgames, the type fo relief opportunities he hadn't been getting beforehand. His presence will be something to watch for in this series against the Yankees.

Finally, today's Hit and Run article is about the Angels and their pursuit of an all-time mark for most win above a projected record:

Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez notched his 50th save on Sunday night, and if you've been following some of Joe Sheehan's recent work, you know that K-Rod is well on his way to smashing Bobby Thigpen's single-season record of 57 saves, set back in 1990. You're probably not aware that he and the rest of the Halos are in sight of another record as well.

Through Sunday, the Angels were 29 games over .500 at 79-50 despite having outscored their opponents by only 53 runs. That put them 9.7 wins above their expected record -- their first-order Pythagenpat projection based on actual runs scored and runs allowed. They're 13.5 wins above their second-order projection, based on Equivalent Runs scored and allowed as derived from run elements (hits, walks, total bases, stolen bases, etc.) and adjusted for their park and league scoring environment. And they're 12.2 wins above their third-order projection, adjusting for the quality of their opponents' pitching and hitting via Equivalent Average (EqA) allowed and opponents' EqA. That last figure would tie for third all-time if the season were to have ended on Sunday (the Angels lost on Monday night, slightly lowering these figures). Turning to the big board for the top 20:

Rk   YEAR   TM     W    L     PCT    R    RA   AEQR  AEQRA   D3    Won
1    2004   NYA   101   61   .623   897   808   911   831   12.7   Div
2    1970   CIN   102   60   .630   775   681   757   676   12.6   Pnt
3T   2007   ARI    90   72   .556   712   732   708   739   12.2   Div
3T   2008   LAA    79   50   .612   600   547   588   566   12.2   
5T   1954   BRO    92   62   .597   778   740   782   749   12.1       
5T   2005   CHA    99   63   .611   741   645   740   684   12.1   WS
7    1905   DET    79   74   .516   512   604   524   601   11.9         
8T   1924   BRO    92   62   .597   717   679   717   684   11.7         
8T   2002   MIN    94   67   .584   768   712   759   741   11.7   Div  
10   1954   CLE   111   43   .721   746   504   717   511   11.4   Pnt    
11T  1907   CHN   108   44   .711   574   390   552   394   11.2   WS     
11T  1961   CIN    93   61   .604   710   653   705   658   11.2   Pnt    
13T  1931   PHA   107   45   .704   858   626   841   639   11.0   Pnt      
13T  1972   NYN    83   73   .532   528   578   533   583   11.0        
15   1984   NYN    90   72   .556   652   676   657   671   10.7        
16T  1936   SLN    87   67   .565   795   794   808   809   10.2         
16T  1977   BAL    97   64   .602   719   653   719   662   10.2       
16T  2006   OAK    93   69   .574   771   727   791   772   10.2   Div    
19T  1997   SFN    90   72   .556   784   793   780   789   10.0   Div   
19T  2007   SEA    88   74   .543   794   813   792   824   10.0

Since the spreadsheet provided to me by Clay Davenport (who cooks up the Adjusted Standings every day) doesn't go beyond the first decimal place, I haven't bothered to break the ties here. AEQR and AEQRA are the adjusted Equivalent Run figures once opponent strength has been incorporated. D3 is the difference between third-order wins and actual wins, with a positive number representing a team that's exceeded its projection. "Won" notes whether a team won their division (Div), pennant (Pnt) or World Series (WS).

One thing that most of these teams, including the Angels, have in common is a top-notch bullpen; all of the teams above who have played since 1954 (the furthest back the BP database goes) finished in the top three in the league in BP's signature relief stat, Reliever Expected Wins Added (WXRL) with one exception: the 1977 Orioles, who had the worst bullpen in the league.

Anyway, there's much fun to be had with stuff like this, enough to provide material for a second article somewhere in the not-too-distant future.

Labels: Hit and Run, Hit List, Red Sox