The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Thursday, July 23, 2009


Hot Stuff Coming Through!

If it's July, trade rumors are in the air, and if you've got ESPN Insider access, you may have seen that the Baseball Prospectus team, including yours truly, has been augmenting the site's MLB Rumor Central area with some quick-hit analysis every morning, complete with bylines. Starting today, ESPN's collecting those bits into the Insider-only BP Hot Sheet. Here are a few of my contributions (the uppercase stuff links back to the rumors page, referring to their previous writeups):
Baseball Prospectus: The best of the rest behind The Doc

Beyond [Roy] Halladay, who's fourth in the AL with a 2.73 ERA and fifth in the majors with a .646 support-neutral winning percentage, the best commodity on the pitching market is Cliff Lee, whose 3.17 ERA and .632 SNWP also are high on the leaderboard. From there, the drop-off is steep, however. Doug Davis (3.95 ERA, .531 SNWP) is above average, Jon Garland (4.41 ERA, .496 SNWP) is average, and then you're into the dregs of Carl Pavano (5.48 ERA, .467 SNWP) and Brad Penny (5.02 ERA, .448 SNWP). - Jay Jaffe

Baseball Prospectus: With Holliday, what you see (in Oakland) is what you get

[Matt] Holliday's stock has been rebounding, thanks to a .311/.389/.557 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) July with three homers in the past week, breaking a six-week homerless drought. No team acquiring him should expect a sudden return to his Colorado form, however. His numbers this season (.280/.372/.448) are a very good match for his career road numbers (.281/.351/.450), confirming the much-held suspicion that his power was the product of Coors Field's high altitude. - Jay Jaffe

Baseball Prospectus: No team should break the bank for Penny

Brad Penny is not really the same type of pitcher he was during his Dodgers heyday. He's getting grounders on just 40 percent of balls in play, compared to about 49 percent in 2007, and he's lucky he hasn't allowed even more home runs, as his home runs-to-foul balls rate of 7.9 percent is well below league average. He'd benefit from a move to a friendlier park in the easier league, but he's nobody the Brewers should break the bank for. - Jay Jaffe
You say Halladay, I say Holliday, let's call the whole deal off...


The dang cardinals landed Holliday. Frustrating!
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