The Futility Infielder

A Baseball Journal by Jay Jaffe I'm a baseball fan living in New York City. In between long tirades about the New York Yankees and the national pastime in general, I'm a graphic designer.

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

 

Midterm Report

On Sunday the baseball season reached its midway point in terms of total games played, and this week at Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Insider, we're using that as an opportunity to examine how our PECOTA forecasts have held up over the course of the first half. Yesterday, Christina Kahrl examined team-level performances. The top six:
Team     PECOTA   Act.   +/-
Rangers .432 .563 .131
Rockies .438 .519 .081
Marlins .438 .518 .080
Giants .469 .543 .074
Angels .500 .563 .063
Dodgers .574 .634 .060
Today I take a stab at the hitters:
In case you hadn't noticed, it's been a rollercoaster season for Alex Rodriguez. Steroid revelations, hip surgery, a .219 batting average balls in play, an inflated walk rate, a recent eight-game, five-homer tear — he's done plenty to confound expectations, both good and bad. Yet the ever-controversial 33-year-old slugger's .313 Equivalent Average through the first 81 games is just two points off his PECOTA weighted mean projection of .311.

Rodriguez's is hardly the only on-the-nose projection our projection system has had halfway into the season. Of the 227 players with at least 200 plate appearances through Sunday, the schedule's official midpoint, 97 are within 15 points of their PECOTA weighted mean EqAs. The variations are normally distributed, with 154 players within 29 points — one standard deviation — of their projections, and 213 within two standard deviations. Here's a non-random selection of players within 15 points either way:

Player Tm PA Act Proj Dif

Justin Upton ARI 325 .302 .287 .015
Matt Kemp LAN 336 .302 .290 .012
Robinson Cano NYA 347 .271 .264 .007
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS 338 .275 .270 .005
Jason Bay BOS 348 .299 .295 .004
David Wright NYN 353 .325 .323 .002
Hanley Ramirez FLO 336 .326 .324 .002
Alex Rodriguez NYA 221 .313 .311 .002
Mark Teixeira NYA 356 .309 .308 .001
Miguel Cabrera DET 330 .306 .308 -.002
Ken Griffey SEA 250 .265 .272 -.007
Emilio Bonifacio FLO 347 .223 .233 -.010
Dustin Pedroia BOS 365 .270 .284 -.014
This list is simply a baker's dozen of players, mostly from the East coast, who have been surrounded by lofty — and in some cases unreasonable — expectations. We've got three of the game's six highest-paid hitters (Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Cabrera), the reigning AL MVP (Pedroia), the whipping boy of Queens (Wright), a prodigal son returned (Griffey), a 21-year-old phenom (Upton), arguably the game's best all-around player (Ramirez), a horrible idea for a leadoff man (Bonifacio), and a few others who frequent conversations in the Northeast corridor. Despite the varying shapes of performance hidden by EqA, they're all about as productive as PECOTA — if not the chattering classes — expects.
Recall that EqA basically is an expression of runs created per plate appearance, adjusted for park and normalized so as to be expressed on a scale of batting average, with .260 defined as league average, .230 as replacement level and .300 a mark of excellence. None of the Yankees or Dodgers make the leaderboards at either extreme. The Brewers' Prince Fielder (.305 projected, .355 actual) is eighth among the overachievers, and the Mets' Gary Sheffield (.271 projected, .318 actual) is 12th, one of just three over-30 players (along with Ichiro Suzuki and Raul Ibañez) among that group. That's after his 43-point shortfall ranked second-to-last in 2008, and after he was released earlier this spring by the Tigers.

As for the trailers, the Brew Crew's Bill Hall (.270 projected, .204 actual) is third. Former Yankee Alfonso Soriano (.294 projected, .241 actual) is eighth, and Boston's David Ortiz (.297 projected, .248 actual) is ninth even after a scorching June performance. The Dodgers' Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal, both 40 points below projected, just missed joining that party.

Anyway, there was a lot of fascinating stuff to be found within the numbers, more than I could get to on a word count, and enough that I may spin that into another piece soon. Stay tuned.

Labels: , , ,


Comments: Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]





<< Home

Archives

June 2001   July 2001   August 2001   September 2001   October 2001   November 2001   December 2001   January 2002   February 2002   March 2002   April 2002   May 2002   June 2002   July 2002   August 2002   September 2002   October 2002   November 2002   December 2002   January 2003   February 2003   March 2003   April 2003   May 2003   June 2003   July 2003   August 2003   September 2003   October 2003   November 2003   December 2003   January 2004   February 2004   March 2004   April 2004   May 2004   June 2004   July 2004   August 2004   September 2004   October 2004   November 2004   December 2004   January 2005   February 2005   March 2005   April 2005   May 2005   June 2005   July 2005   August 2005   September 2005   October 2005   November 2005   December 2005   January 2006   February 2006   March 2006   April 2006   May 2006   June 2006   July 2006   August 2006   September 2006   October 2006   November 2006   December 2006   January 2007   February 2007   March 2007   April 2007   May 2007   June 2007   July 2007   August 2007   September 2007   October 2007   November 2007   December 2007   January 2008   February 2008   March 2008   April 2008   May 2008   June 2008   July 2008   August 2008   September 2008   October 2008   November 2008   December 2008   January 2009   February 2009   March 2009   April 2009   May 2009   June 2009   July 2009   August 2009   September 2009   October 2009   November 2009   December 2009   January 2010   February 2010   March 2010   April 2010   May 2010  

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]