The Futility Infielder

My piece today at Baseball Prospectus covering Wednesday's Congressional hearing will have a familiar ring to anyone who's been following along in this space. While there's plenty to debate about the propriety of such a dog and pony show in Congress, not to mention the credibility of the Mitchell Report and of Brian McNamee, I focused on the hearings as a product of Roger Clemens' public quest for vindication:

In any event, Wednesday's hearings weren't so much about the House Committee on Oversight and Governmental Reform's interest in the culpability of the commissioner, the union, or the owners as they were about Roger Clemens' decision to challenge the findings in the Mitchell Report in an attempt to clear his name. Without Clemens' vehement campaign to discredit the work of the Mitchell Commission while denying the charges that he used steroids and human growth hormone, there would have been no hearing. But given his goal of vindicating himself, it's difficult to conclude that Clemens did anything but fail miserably on a grand stage.

...Clemens came into the hearings needing to cast doubt on the Mitchell Report, on Pettitte, and on McNamee, and at best, he went a weak one-for-three. The proceedings raised credibility questions about his former trainer, demonstrating that McNamee basically fits the profile of someone desperate who gets backed into corners like these -- allusions to a Florida rape case where the charges didn't stick, a fake diploma and some shady misrepresentation, a seriously ill son, and a sudden desire to set things right for the youth of America so as to avoid jail time. His accounts appear to be in a constant state of evolution, which opens him up to facile charges of lying but which are, as Souder pointed out, characteristic of people forced into such deals. For certain, McNamee is no prize pig, something we've known for months; Clemens and his allies on the committee didn't get very far beyond that, and in fact Clemens created new problems for himself while dealing with the body blow of the other major revelations.

Indeed, experts suggest the probability of a Department of Justice perjury investigation versus Clemens, though I'm skeptical there's enough evidence to convict him. Meanwhile, there's much less to suggest McNamee is in danger of being proven as lying about the Mitchell-related allegations and thus in violation of his proffer agreement, or that Clemens' defamation suit against McNamee will gain any traction. Had Clemens simply copped to using HGH (and only HGH) as Pettitte did after the report came out, this sordid saga would likely be over. Clemens and his legal team look foolish for not recognizing that unless the Rocket was absolutely spotless -- and here, the unchallenged information about Debbie Clemens' HGH use looks especially bad -- he was going to be hung out to dry.

Roger Clemens was very good at intimidating batters for over 20 years, but his brawn and bravado simply don't work in a legal or pseudo-legal setting. He's gotten far more than he bargained for in his quest for vindication. Instead of throwing smoke, he's simply been smoked.

Today's headlines have brought some new information into the mix. According to this New York Times piece, committee chair Henry Waxman now regrets that the hearing took place, and reveals that on the Republican side, only Tom Davis and Mark Souder even bothered to read the depositions. It's telling that Souder came off as one of the few Congressman on either side to cross the partisan divide:

Souder was also one of the few committee members who refused Clemens's request for a private meeting before the hearing. And it was Souder who stood out from his Republican colleagues by stating during the hearing that the depositions were "fairly devastating" against Clemens.

"I don’t think, quite frankly, that they anticipated quite the solid wall on the Republican side, the defense of Clemens," Souder said Wednesday of the Democratic members of the panel. Speaking of Clemens, he added, "It wasn't an accident that word got to me that he’s a Republican, or he said that President Bush called him."

Meanwhile, much more information about McNamee's debriefing by investigators from the Clemens camp is coming to light. If you thought this saga was over, think again.

Labels: Hit and Run, Roger Clemens, steroids

Once again, it was a very surreal scene to see baseball hauled in front of Congress for the purposes of posturing about steroids. From where I sat in the Fox News Radio Studio, where host Dave Anthony and I were joined via phone by Jim Bouton, it was a pretty bad day for Roger Clemens. Andy Pettitte's testimony stating that Clemens told him of his HGH use, the revelations that Clemens discussed HGH with Brian McNamee, who injected his wife, and Clemens' potential tampering with a witness, the family nanny, who placed Clemens and family at the Jose Canseco house despite Clemens' claims to have been playing golf -- all of those things made the Rocket's testimony look less than credible.

As for the Congressmen we saw parading in front of the cameras, if it's true that we get the elected officials we deserve, then we as a nation must have befouled some giant ancient burial ground to bring forth the grandstanding morons of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Yesterday's proceedings mostly followed a partisan line, with Democrats going after Clemens and Republicans attacking McNamee, the latter with a high degree of histrionics (Dan Burton, Darrell Issa, Virginia Foxx and my old nemesis Christopher Shays being the most egregious). Blech.

Clemens came into the hearings needing to cast doubt on the Mitchell Report, on Pettitte, and on McNamee, and at best, the proceedings raised credibility questions about the latter, demonstrating that he basically fits the profile of the kind of desperate schmuck who gets backed into corners like these (allusions to a Florida rape case, a fake diploma, a sick son, and a sudden desire to set things right for the youth of America so as to avoid jail time). But I don't think Clemens got very far beyond that, and in fact created new problems for himself while dealing with the body blow of the Pettitte testimony and the revelations about his wife.

Furthermore, I don't think one can rule out a Department of Justice perjury investigation versus Clemens, though I doubt there's nearly enough to convict him. Meanwhile, there's nothing to suggest McNamee is in danger of it being proven that he's lying and thus in violation of his proffer agreement. If Clemens had just copped to HGH (and only HGH) a month ago like Pettitte did, this sordid saga would probably be over, and Clemens is a dolt for not recognizing that unless he was absolutely spotless he was gonna get hung out to dry. He's gotten way more than he bargained for in his bid for vindication.

Anyway, I'm in the midst of a heavy load of radio appearances this morning. Catch me if you can:

WCHV Charlottesville
0710AM ET

WHAS Louisville, KY
0715AM ET

WIMA Lima, OH
0739AM ET

WBUV Mississippi
0810AM ET

WRVA Richmond, VA
0822AM ET

WHJJ Providence, RI
0835ET AM

WTVN, Columbus OH
0842AM ET

KOA Denver, CO
0905AM ET

WOAI San Antonio, TX
0911AM ET

WOC Davenport, IA
0920AM ET

KFBK Sacramento, CA
1038AM ET

Labels: radio, Roger Clemens, steroids

Those of you who drop by here for Yankees-related coverage -- not that I've had much this winter -- have probably noticed that I've had little to say on the Roger Clemens/Mitchell Report story in this forum. I haven't been entirely silent on the issue, however. I was part of Fox News Radio's in-studio anchored coverage of the Mitchell Report's release back in December and did two sets of Fox affiliate hits straddling the report's release. I did another series of affiliate hits regarding Clemens the day after his 60 Minutes appearance in January, and I've just found out I'll be part of Fox's in-studio coverage of Clemens' Congressional testimony on Wednesday beginning at 10 AM Eastern. See here to find the affiliate in your area or to listen to streaming coverage over the Internet.

As for writing about the Rocket's 'roids-related revelations, I covered the pinstriped angle of the Mitchell Report for Bombers Broadside 2008, a forthcoming book on the Yankees from Maple Street Press. This is the second year in a row I've contributed to Bombers Broadside. In this edition's 112 pages of glossy, full color goodness you'll also find editor Cecilia Tan and such familiar names as Mike Carminati, Vince Genarro, Dan Graziano, Derek Jacques, Tara Krieger, Dan McCourt, Sweeney Murti and Pete Palmer. The book will be available on newsstands in the Tri-State area on March 4, and can be ordered directly from the publisher now.



As for what I actually think about whether Clemens used? As skeptical as I am of the Mitchell Report and of Brian McNamee's character, I've had a hard time believing the Clemens camp's protestations from the beginning. Furthermore, every weird turn this case has taken -- from the Mike Wallace softball interview to the taped phone call to Andy Pettitte's admission and testimony to the needles and gauze to the naming of Debbie Clemens to the Rocket's glad-handing up on Capitol Hill to Rusty Hardin's down-home machismo -- has further eroded my confidence in Clemens' version of events. The only major point scored in Clemens' favor since the report's release was the revelation that he was not in fact named in the Jason Grimsley affidavit, contrary to the Los Angeles Times' previous reports.

Which isn't to say that I particularly care whether Clemens used or not. Though his late-career accomplishments certainly fit a pattern not unlike that of America's previous Public Enemy #1, Barry Bonds, I'm more skeptical than ever about what the drugs he allegedly took may have done to his performance. In the context of the hundreds of other players who allegedly used PEDs prior to baseball's beefed-up policy, his case isn't especially remarkable; it's the denials which have amplified the coverage and given the story legs. What's certain is that the public persona of Clemens that has emerged through this saga is even less charming than the one on display throughout his career. And while I have to admit that I'm not really prone to sympathizing with right-wing, redneck bullies, I fear that the cover-up -- if this flurry of activity is indeed covering up for Clemens' misdeeds -- is worse than the crime.

That said, I doubt there will be enough evidence to convict Clemens of perjury, and I find the whole notion that Congress should be involved in this dispute to be patently ridiculous. Henry Waxman, Tom Davis and their colleagues -- particularly my old nemesis Christopher Shays, America's expert at Not Knowing Anything About Anything -- are a bipartisan bunch of camera-hogging assclowns who ought to be doing something more important, like begging their constituents for forgiveness for wasting their time and taxpayer dollars on such relatively trivial matters.

Anyway, as ever I'll try to impart a modicum of reason into the reportage.

Labels: promotion, radio, Roger Clemens, steroids, Yankees

Roger Clemens was on my mind last week. Thanks to a John Perroto piece at Baseball Prospectus, incorporating him into the week's Hit List was an inevitability, but I managed to have some fun with it:

Despite the arrival of Hunter Pence, the Astros are decidedly earthbound after nine losses in 10 games, and at this rate, the only Rocket ride they can look forward to is on Kiss Alive II. Owner Drayton McLane, GM Tim Purpura, president of baseball operations Tal Smith, and manager Phil Garner confer, deciding that Garner's mustache is trimmed to the optimal length to inspire Craig Biggio in his deathless march to 3,000.

And that's without even considering the state of the Yankee rotation, which we'll get to momentarily. Late in my Friday afternoon chat at BP, I made reference to a bit of sarcasm passing me by like a Clemens fastball, and then shortly afterwards, fielded a question about the Rocket:

The Animal (Boston): Speaking of Clemens... got a prediction?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. With the Red Sox lacking a defined need and the Astros going nowhere fast, I think this is the Yanks' play if Clemens comes back, and my guess is that he heists them for something like a prorated salary of $30 million.

Sunday afternoon, during the seventh-inning stretch of the Yanks' 5-0 win over the Mariners, the cameras cut to Clemens as he made a surprise announcement from owner George Steinbrenner's private box: "Well, they came and got me out of Texas and I can tell you it's a privilege to be back. I'll be talking to y'all soon." Terms were not immediately announced, but ESPN's Buster Olney reports that Clemens' salary will be a pro-rated $28 million -- not a bad guess on my part, I must say -- or about $4.5 million per month. Not a bad living for possibly the greatest pitcher of all time.

Clemens, amid his rather tiresome annual retirement ritual, had insisted over the past several months that he wouldn't be making a decision between the aforementioned three teams until the end of May. But the combination of the Yankees' decimated rotation, the other two teams' delayed timeframe, Clemens' accelerated workout schedule, and cold, hard cash made for an inevitable resolution. As Olney reports:

Clemens and [agent Randy] Hendricks made it clear to everyone, even into late April, that he wouldn't make his decision until late May. But as Mike Mussina got hurt and then Carl Pavano, the Yankees felt they could and should become more aggressive. After landing in Texas, Cashman wanted to set up a meeting with Hendricks -- only to learn, to his horror, that the agent was meeting with the Red Sox, which the agent confirmed to Cashman with a text message on May 1. Hours later, Phil Hughes hurt his hamstring. The Yankees' need for pitching was acute.

Cashman and Hendricks e-mailed back and forth on Tuesday and Wednesday, kicking around the idea of meeting during the day Thursday in Houston, but there was a terrible storm in Arlington that forced the postponement of the game. The Yankees and Rangers were scheduled for a doubleheader Thursday, and Cashman felt that if he was away from the team during the game, then the media might get an inkling of how he was trying to make an aggressive move on Clemens. He had used the same approach in signing Johnny Damon: Make a very aggressive offer quickly and force a decision.

So Hendricks and Cashman spoke on Thursday night, and the financial parameters were laid out: Clemens would cost a prorated salary of $28 million. Hendricks got off the phone and called Clemens, and told him that the time was nearing for the pitcher to make a decision, and that if he was going to go to the Yankees, now was the time. "Let's do it," Clemens responded.

The past week-and-change has intensified the need for stability in the Yanks' rotation. Last Saturday, Jeff Karstens was drilled by a line drive that fractured his fibula. On Tuesday, Philip Hughes broke hearts just as he was winning them over, popping his hamstring while chasing a no-hitter. On Friday, Kei Igawa, who had come out of the bullpen to fire six innings of shutout ball in relief of Karstens, pitched like the guy who got sent to the pen in the first place. And as the week wore on, doubts about Crippled Pitcher's Carl Pavano's return this season reached a deafening crescendo. Despite good work from Andy Pettitte and Darrell Rasner, a sizzling start from just-activated Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang chasing perfection, the Yanks' rotation doesn't appear to have the necessary depth to hold up its end of this $200 million deal, which is why a team with the highest-scoring offense in the majors is still clawing its way back to .500 while losing ground to their rivals. Here's a thumbnail comparison of the Yankee and Red Sox rotations thus far:

       W-L  IP/GS  QS%  ERA   K/9  SNLVAR
BOS   17-9   6.25  60%  3.79  7.2   4.1
NYY    8-8   4.97  28%  5.25  5.3   1.2

The Yanks aren't even averaging five innings per start, they're getting a Quality Start less than half as often, allowing about 1.50 runs per game more; the three wins above replacement level difference (according to BP's numbers) seems to be an underestimation given the superiority of the Yankee offense thus far, but the difference in bullpen performances has been even steeper, and there's no question the latter fact is a product of the former. As the Yanks have spent the past decade reminding us, the soft underbelly of long relief can make for quite a feast.

There's no question Clemens can still pitch. Granted, the NL has played as an inferior league during Clemens' three years years in Houston, and that's before considering the DH/non-DH factor, but a pitcher who put up these numbers from ages 41-43 can still get it done:

Year   W-L   IP    K/9   ERA  ERA+ 
2004  18-4  214.1  9.1  2.98  145  Cy Young #7
2005  13-8  211.1  7.9  1.87  221  Led NL in ERA
2006   7-6  113.1  8.1  2.30  197

Despite the drama of the announcement and the Yankees' obvious need, as a fan I've got mixed emotions about Clemens' return. I was no fan of Clemens when he came to New York -- I screamed myself hoarse at some of his early starts -- but I came around. I was in the House That Ruth Built watching him nail down the 1999 World Series clincher, an indelible moment in my time as a fan. I was also at his stellar Game Three performance in the 2001 Seres, where he held off the Diamondbacks in a tense game played under tense circumstances. For all of his checkered history in big games -- a history I've explored several times -- his best big-game performances have come as a Yankee: "In 17 pinstriped [postseason] starts, he had a 3.24 ERA and won two World Series rings; with the other two teams, his ERA is 4.19 with no championships," I wrote in 2005. And I've held that when he retired for the first time, he owed the Yanks and their fans nothing except perhaps the return of that Humvee, which is just more Steinbrenner money anyway.

Having said that, I've watched Clemens reveal himself as even more of a mercenary since then; like Krusty the Klown, selling out is in his blood. Clemens is perhaps the ultimate mercenary in baseball history, one who's not only able to call the shots on where he plays, but exactly when he gets to show up to work. Taking him at his word on any matter involving his retirement or his return is a foolish act, and his burly-redneck-football-adrenaline-junky-drama-queen persona is a bit tough to digest. And that's before his pitching even comes into play. He's still a going-on-45, six-inning pitcher coming to a tough division -- not to mention the loftiest, championship-or-bust expectations to be found in team sports -- and counting on him to dominate as he did even for stretches during this millennium is probably a pipe dream given the contrast to his cushy Houston environs.

Still, when the alternative is watching a parade of Your Name Heres limp from mound to DL to bullpen or Scranton and back again trying to fill out the Yankee rotation, Clemens is the preferable alternative. In for a penny, in for a pound, as my Anglophilic friends would say. His pricey presence allows the Yanks to continue with their attempt to have cake and eat it too, winning while rebuilding, buying time for a young arm like Hughes to develop. If nothing else, this Rocket ride is certain to be an interesting one.

• • •

A reminder to those of you who are XM subscribers: I'll be doing my usual 2 PM Eastern slot with Chris Liss today on XM 144's "Baseball Beat," and I'm sure you-know-who will be at least one topic of conversation between two Yankee fans.

Also on the radio, on Wednesday at 4:10 PM Eastern I'll be appearing on Toledo, Ohio's 1470 AM (WLQR), doing a show called "Front Row" with host Norm Wamer. Wamer had me on last week, and I'm delighted to return. Catch it if you're in the area.

Labels: Chats, Hit List, radio, Roger Clemens, Yankees