The Futility Infielder

I spent a good portion of the holiday weekend in front of a computer, putting the finishing touches on a piece for the New York Sun, with whom Baseball Prospectus has a content deal, and of course, this week's Prospectus Hit List. After getting more of a monitor tan than a suntan, I made both deadlines in time to dash out to Brooklyn to enjoy BBQ'd burgers, dogs, and wings and watch the fireworks with friends while enjoying some cold beers. Not a bad way to go.

The Sun piece, on the predictive nature of the July 4 standings, will run Wednesday. An old baseball axiom -- I found references in Time magazine dating back to 1928 -- holds that the team in first place on July 4 will win the pennant; a 1934 Time cover story noted that in the previous 25 years, the team in first on the Fourth won two-thirds of the time. Of course, today we have three divisions, and winning one of them doesn't equal a pennant, but the axiom holds true with about the same frequency in the three-division era regarding a division title as it did in the one-division era. More on that topic -- including the chart that was axed from the piece (grr) -- tomorrow.

As for the Hit List, I prepare a preliminary ranking every Sunday morning to pass on to another BP writer, Jim Baker, who uses them to prepare his Prospectus Matchups column and start my own work for the week's list. Each of the past two Sundays has found the White Sox in first, but by Monday morning, the Cardinals have the upper hand. Weird.

Anyway, the Yanks come in at #10, with an extended riff about the unimpressive fruits of their bullpen retooling. Since that tally, they've dropped 25 runs on the heads of the Orioles, who after several weeks of ruling the roost have fallen to #6 on the Hit List. Jason Giambi's been heating up for the Yankees, launching three homers over those two games. He's now hitting .268/.420/.433 (.329/.490/.575 since June 1), which is starting to look a lot more like an asset than a liability, at least in the batter's box. The big galoot is so slow that rookie Bubba Crosby, in the weekend's most entertaining gaffe, practically ran right up his back as he dug for second on a looper, not realizing that Giambi had held up between first and second waiting to see if the ball was caught. The two slid into second base one right after the other, with Crosby, who rarely makes it onto the basepaths on his own accord (just 13 major-league hits to his credit in 85 games played), the one called out. It would have been maddening if it hadn't taken place in a seven-run inning.

Where the Yanks are really having trouble now is in the rotation, with Carl Pavano scratched from Saturday's start, and Will Carroll using the L word (emphasis added):

The Yankees are... very concerned about the upcoming MRI on Carl Pavano. The new Yank has been more or less performing up to expectations, their only off-season acquisition to do so. The major concern is that there's some labrum involvement, with reports of popping and locking not seen in the New York area since Ozone and Turbo showed Special K how it was done back in the day. A severe shoulder injury to Pavano could put the Yankees into as close to a full-panic mode as they can be in.

Uh, Will, wasn't Breakin' based in southern California? Anyway, Pavano's scratch led to Tanyon Sturtze taking Monday's start, thinning out a bullpen that's already undergone some pruning. If Pavano really is hurt... well, let's just say that counting down the days until Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright are healthy isn't exactly a ticket to sanity.

As frightening as that is, at this writing the Yanks are just 3.5 games behind the first place Red Sox, who have lost five out of seven and who continue to have their own bullpen nightmares. As noted in the Hit List, the pen posted a 6.50 ERA in June, and closer Keith Foulke's ERA now stands at 6.23 after he blew his second game in five days. It's tough to believe that as bad as the Yanks have been, they're really not out of the AL East race.

Out of it, on the other hand, is where the #22 Dodgers appear to be headed. On Sunday, an errant pitch from the Diamondbacks' Brad Halsey hit J.D. Drew on the hand, and naturally -- given the Dodgers' rash of bad luck -- it's broken, sidelining Drew until September (oh, and that's not a rash of bad luck, that's a flesh-eating virus). Though he'd recently been sidelined by chondromalatia, Drew had been hitting like the real deal so far (.286/.416/.520), especially given that he started the season 0-for-25. Meanwhile, shortstop Cesar Izturis, who had been sidelined with a strained hamstring, finallyu went on the DL, which comes as something of a relief. As noted on the Hit List, he'd hit .085/.128/.098 in 86 plate appearances since June 2, with Jim Tracy stubbornly keeping him in the leadoff spot all the while. Gee, Jim, we know the offense has taken a hit without Milton Bradley, but d'ya think it might have been time to drop Little Cesar to #8 until he started hitting again?

On a positive note for the Dodgers, Izturis' replacement, Oscar Robles, is 10-for-19 since taking over. In other words, it took him only four games to surpass the number of hits that Izturis had accumulated over the past 20 games. Wow.

Labels: New York Sun