The Futility Infielder

I've spent a good portion of the last couple of weeks thinking about the Atlanta Braves, who now sit in first place atop the NL East, just as they have for the better part of the last 15 seasons. They're winning again, but in a way few people expected. With as many as 10 rookies on their roster at any given time, the Braves have been reaping the rewards of a deep farm system, patching through sizable holes created by injuries and trading surplus talent for off-brand pitchers suitable for legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone to work his magic upon. This might be the best work yet by GM John Schuerholz, manager Bobby Cox, and Mazzone, the triumvirate behind the team's run since 1991.

Last week, Baseball Prospectus published my study of the Braves' track record in trading prospects, today comes my piece in the New York Sun about this year's rookie class, most notably Jeff Francoeur, the 21-year-old sensation who's hitting .382/.394/.745 with nine home runs through his first 28 games (including one in his debut) and has already reeled off an 11-game hitting streak, helping the team to snatch first place from the Washington Nationals. Francoeur was BP's 27th-ranked prospect in our annual Top 50 Prospect list, celebrated for his ample power and excellent defense but downgraded slightly for a lack of plate discipline. True to form, he has yet to draw a walk, but nobody's complaining. Instead, they're comparing his "hack and whack" approach to that of Vladimir Guerrero, the reigning AL MVP. Francoeur strikes out considerably more than Vlad the Impaler -- 76 in 84 games at Mississippi, 19 in 28 games in Atlanta, compared to 36 in 97 games for the Angels' slugger -- but it's tough to argue with the results. After a little over a month of play, his Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) now stands at 19.2 runs, second among NL rookies and fifth among Braves hitters. You might as well hand him the hardware right now.

According to VORP, the Braves are getting more production from their rookies than any other team besides Oakland (the Sun cut the chart, but I'm not about to let my data-mining go to waste):

Team  Rook Hit        Rook Pit         Total Rook
       VORP     %PA     VORP     %IP     VORP
OAK    35.0    14.8%    56.5    23.2%    91.5
ATL    43.5    35.1%    22.9    17.4%    66.4
TOR    31.9    15.1%    29.0    17.0%    60.9
COL    49.8    45.2%    -9.2    25.6%    40.6
TBA    34.4    15.0%     4.4    26.5%    38.8
MIN     3.9     9.6%    33.4    11.4%    37.3
PIT    23.4    21.3%    12.2     7.3%    35.6
SEA    10.4    20.4%    19.0     8.0%    29.4
ANA     8.7     9.7%    18.7    14.2%    27.4
MIL    19.2    13.3%     5.5     6.2%    24.7
NYN    10.8     3.7%    12.8     8.3%    23.6
SFN    10.2    17.0%    12.7    12.1%    22.9
WAS    12.6     8.3%     4.7     6.2%    17.3
CHN     9.9     6.5%     7.2    19.4%    17.1
CHA    19.9    13.0%    -3.0     3.7%    16.9
PHI     8.0     4.6%     5.7     8.8%    13.7
NYA     7.6    10.2%     4.5    12.9%    12.1
KCA     0.7    14.5%    11.1    22.1%    11.8
DET    -0.8     2.2%    11.3     5.1%    10.5
BAL    -0.6     2.2%     8.4     7.8%     7.8
CLE     0.6     0.9%     7.1     2.1%     7.7
TEX     0.2     1.4%     2.9    22.9%     3.1
SDN    -2.8     1.3%     5.5    12.0%     2.7
ARI    -4.2    10.1%     5.8    28.7%     1.6
SLN    -4.5     6.3%     3.1     8.4%    -1.4
CIN    -6.4     3.4%     1.8    15.4%    -4.6
BOS    -3.4     0.6%    -4.1     1.4%    -7.5
HOU    -5.9    22.6%    -6.0    20.0%   -11.9
LAN    -3.5    18.5%    -9.8    20.1%   -13.3
FLO    -4.5     4.3%   -12.1     7.6%   -16.6

%PA and %IP are the percentages of the team's total plate appearances or innings pitched used by rookies. All told, the average team is getting 18.9 runs above replacement from their rookies. If you're looking for a reason the A's have been kicking ass instead of rolling over as the Beane-haters expected them to, look no further.

For the most part, the rookies, even those of the Braves, are producing at rates below other players, which stands to reason because many of them define the replacement level concept. Across the 30 teams, rookie hitters have produced 5.6 percent of the total hitting VORP in 11.5 percent of the total plate appearances, while rookie pitchers have produced 7.1 percent of the total pitching VORP in 13.4 percent of the total innings. Rookie Braves hitters have produced 29.7 percent of the team's hitting VORP in 35.1 percent of the PAs, while for rookie Braves pitchers, its 11.9 percent of the VORP in 17.4 percent of the innings. That's a significantly better yield.

Even at less-than-efficient yields, the young Braves' contributions have come in handy. From the article:

Into the breach stepped a handful of homegrown rookies, who have improbably led the team to a 32-18 record since June 16. In the outfield, Ryan Langerhans and Kelly Johnson have combined to hit 240 BA/.327 OBA/.398 SLG- hardly earthshaking, but still better than the lifeless .231/.283/.345 combined performance of [Raul] Mondesi and [Brian] Jordan. At third base, Wilson Betemit has hit .296/.355/.451 in place of [Chipper] Jones, who has missed 50 games with injuries. Catcher Brian McCann, recalled when backup Eddie Perez went on the DL, has hit .280/.350/.419, and with starter Johnny Estrada now sidelined by a cervical strain, he's the new regular. Kyle Davies has put up a 4.56 ERA in 14 starts, proving himself a reasonable stopgap for a desperate team. John Foster and Blaine Boyer have provided solid middle relief, allowing the bullpen to be reshuffled to cover for [Danny] Kolb's woes.

The rotation's injuries -- to Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, and John Thomson -- are part of the reason the team ranks fourth in salary lost to the DL, $15.6 million through last Friday, 18.4% of the team's payroll (the Giants, with Sir Douchealot sidelined, lead at $27.2 million, the Dodgers are second at $25.1 mil, the Yanks fifth at $15.4 mil). They're only 24th in days lost to the DL, with 408 (the Nationals and Mariners have both lost over 1100), so it's really been a matter of losing quality over quantity. Thanks to BP's Mike Groopman for supplying the data, which (sigh) also got left on the cutting room floor of the Sun piece.

And so long as I'm giving y'all a bonus disc of outtakes, here's how the current Braves crop stacks up against their past classes of rookies during their post-1990 run:

Year    hVORP  pVorp  Total  Top Rookie (VORP)
2005    42.3   23.9   66.2   Jeffrey Francoeur, RF (19.2)
1999    11.2   45.9   57.1   John Rocker, P (26.0)
1994    45.9    0.8   46.7   Ryan Klesko, LF (22.1)
1997    20.6   24.8   45.5   Tony Graffanino, 2B(11.5)
2002   -10.3   50.9   40.6   Damian Moss, P (28.1)
1998    -3.4   41.6   38.1   Kerry Ligtenberg, P (21.4)
1993     6.5   30.1   36.7   Greg McMichael, P (32.6)
1995    23.6   12.3   35.9   Chipper Jones, 3B (28.0)
2001    16.7   16.5   33.2   Jason Marquis, P (20.2)
1996     1.6   26.4   28.0   Terrell Wade, P (16.8)
2004    21.9    1.3   23.3   Adam Laroche, 1B (19.1)
2003     0.5   21.4   21.9   Horacio Ramirez, P (21.5)
2000    21.6   -1.4   20.2   Rafael Furcal, SS (37.0)
1992    -1.4   13.4   12.0   David Nied, P (9.4)
1991    11.3   -0.8   10.6   Brian Hunter, 1B (8.8)

The scary thing about that list is that not only is Francoeur going to pad that number considerably but that it includes a negligible contribution from BP's #1 top prospect, Andy Marte, who figures to take over the third base job sooner or later. The Braves are well-stocked for the future.

Even the prospects they've traded have helped the team:

Three such trades in which Schuerholz gave up unproven talent have been crucial to patching this year's staff. Last spring, Chris Reitsma was acquired from the Reds for two pitchers, and after a year of middle relief, he's taken over the closer role from Kolb. This spring, the Braves sent second baseman Nick Green to Tampa Bay for Jorge Sosa, who had yielded a 5.14 ERA in three seasons of Devil Ray purgatory. He started the year in the bullpen, where he was issuing more walks than strikeouts. But since being forced into the rotation, Sosa has been more than solid, allowing a 2.77 ERA in 12 starts while posting a passable 1.81 K/BB ratio. And at an otherwise quiet trading deadline, Schuerholz pulled off one of the few notable deals, sending rookie pitcher Roman Colon and minor-leaguer Zach Miner to acquire hard-throwing setup man - and likely future closer - Kyle Farnsworth from the Tigers.

It's actually been something of a rocky ride with Reitsma (3.56 ERA, 6 blown saves out of 21) but the larger point stands. If you want an organization that knows how to reap the rewards of its farm system, look no further than the Braves.

Labels: New York Sun